4th Down and Miles to Go

Thursday, December 10, 2015

My College Football Final Rankings

The final rankings are out, and in general there isn't a lot to disagree with. My top 4 looks the same, except I have Michigan State and Alabama reversed. I also have Ohio State, Iowa, and Stanford in a slightly different order in the 5-7 spots. Ohio State and Iowa have very similar resumes, with each suffering a 3-point loss to Michigan State. However, given the circumstances of the Buckeye's loss (bad weather, star running back hospitalized days before the game), I give them a slight edge over the Hawkeyes. And I think that 1-loss non-champs in a strong-looking Big Ten should be ahead of a 2-loss Stanford, despite the Cardinal's beefier resume and Pac 12 title. Remember - one of Stanford's two losses came at the hands of Northwestern, a team that Iowa beat by 30 points. Speaking of which, I think the Wildcats should be ranked higher, and so should Houston. On the flip side, I think Ole Miss is over-ranked and I punished Baylor and Florida more significantly for ugly losses.

The playoff field:

1. Clemson (13-0), ACC

The Tigers danced their way into the playoffs as the only remaining undefeated team. They'll hope to fare better than Florida State did last year, the lone unbeaten in the first iteration of the College Football Playoff. The Seminoles were crushed 59 - 20 by Oregon in the Rose Bowl. This year, Clemson will take on Oklahoma in the Orange bowl to vie for a spot in the title game.

2. Michigan State (12-1), B1G ⇧3

The B1G champ moved up into the top 4 with a victory over Iowa in Indy. I have them above Alabama, and to me it's not even that close. The Spartans own wins over #5 Iowa (12 - 1), #7 Ohio State (11 - 1), and #14 Michigan (9 - 3). Alabama's best wins are vs #19 Florida (10 - 3) and #20 LSU (8 - 3). The committee has made it painfully clear that it's not about who you lose to, but who you beat. And so Michigan State's resume makes them look like the best 1-loss team without a doubt.

3. Alabama (12-1), SEC ⇩1

They took care of business against Florida in the SEC championship game, and punched their ticket to the playoffs for the second straight year as a result. They'll face off against a Big Ten opponent in the semi-final round once again, but will be hoping for a different result this time around.

4. Oklahoma (11-1), Big 12

The Sooners had already wrapped up their playoff spot with a win over Oklahoma State and an outright conference title. The Big 12 was left out last year - can Oklahoma prove they belong despite the lack of a league championship game?

The rest:

Rank	Team	Record	Conf	Trend
5	Ohio State	11-1	B1G	⇧1
6	Iowa	12-1	B1G	⇩4
7	Stanford	11-2	Pac 12	⇧1
8	Florida State	10-2	ACC	⇧1
9	Notre Dame	10-2	Indep	⇧1
10	Northwestern	10-2	B1G	⇧1
11	North Carolina	11-2	ACC	⇩4
12	Houston	12-1	AAC	⇧3
13	Oklahoma State	10-2	Big 12	--
14	TCU	10-2	Big 12	--
15	Michigan	9-3	B1G	⇧2
16	Oregon	9-3	SEC	⇧2
17	Ole Miss	9-3	Pac 12	⇧2
18	Navy	9-2	AAC	⇧3
19	Utah	9-3	SEC	⇧3
20	LSU	8-3	SEC	⇧3
21	Baylor	9-3	Big 12	⇩9
22	Wisconsin	9-3	B1G	⇧2
23	Florida	10-3	SEC	⇩7
24	Temple	10-3	AAC	⇩4
25	Western Kentucky	11-2	C-USA	New

Dropped from rankings: USC 25

Previous rankings:
Week 14
Week 13
Week 12
Week 11
Week 10

Saturday, December 5, 2015

College Football Week 14 Bold Predictions

1. Favorites all win in SEC, ACC, Pac 12 championship games

My predictions of chaos didn't work out so well last week so I'm going the opposite direction in week 14. Everybody is talking about what happens in all these crazy scenarios, but I think the most probable outcome is no chaos at all. Alabama crushes Florida, 38 - 4 (yes, two safeties), Clemson survives UNC, 35 - 27, and Stanford handles USC, 38 - 28.

2. Temple upsets Houston

Both of these teams suffered stunning upset losses this season, with the Owls falling to USF and Houston getting beaten by UConn. They meet on Saturday with an AAC title and a New Year's Six bowl bid on the line. Houston's been able to move the ball on almost anyone this year, but I like Temple's defense in this one. Owls win 28 - 24.

3. I will be sad because there is no Buckeye football

:'(

4. Iowa topples MSU, wins Big Ten

If the Spartans' offense dictates the tempo of this game, the Hawkeyes could be in trouble. But Iowa has made a habit of forcing teams play their style this season. They haven't faced a quarterback even close to Connor Cook's level, so it will be a big challenge for Iowa's defense. I think it stays close all game but the Hawkeye defense comes up with a big stop late in the game to seal the deal. Iowa stays perfect and advances to the playoff with a 30 - 27 victory.

5. Everybody agrees with the CFP committee's top 4

Because pretty much everyone has been on the same page so far, right?

Friday, December 4, 2015

Ohio State of Mind: Deus ex machina

This is all part of the script, right?

In our culture, we should be used to it by now. The hero finds himself in a desperate situation. The odds are stacked against him. All hope is lost. But we know better.

We know that somehow, someway it will all work out in the end. We see it before it even happens. Out of nowhere, the day is saved. Deus ex machina. The god from the machine. We would complain about the contrived plot device, but we're too busy celebrating.

In ancient Greek culture, they literally lowered a god onto the stage. Will the football gods grace the field this Saturday? They've interfered more than once already this season. They dangled a victory in front of Michigan and then snatched it away. We laughed at the time but now we wish that the gods just let Blake O'Neill punt the dang ball. They hated Nebraska. Except for that one time. They mercilessly toyed with the Seminoles. They must have felt sorry for the 'Canes, because they gave them a gift. They almost ruined Alabama's season and then indirectly saved it.

Are the football gods to blame for a windy rainstorm that happened to roll into Columbus, Ohio on November 21st?

Maybe it's all part of the script.

One of the main reasons last year's championship run was so incredible was because of the improbability of the whole thing: An early-season loss. Having to go to our 2nd, and then later, 3rd string quarterback. Being heavy underdogs in every big game. And then came along Cardale Jones. Zeke started running over everyone and everything. The Silver Bullets became bulletproof. Deus ex machina.

Everybody expected us to come in and easily beat everyone this year. How boring would that have been? The football gods just wanted to make sure it was a little more exciting. They just wanted to add a little drama.

They're just sticking to the script. It's called entertainment value.

I don't know if we'll make the playoffs. We might not see the deus ex machina this weekend. But if we do, and the football gods lift us up into the top 4, I'm betting on us to win it all again.

And either way, we'll still have this:

Go Bucks. Go Chaos.

Thursday, December 3, 2015

College Football Week 13 Recap

1. South Carolina stuns Clemson

It was close, but Deshaun Watson and the Tigers' offense proved to be too much for the Gamecocks, as they survived 37 - 32. Clemson faces North Carolina in the ACC title game next, with a playoff spot on the line. If the Tigers win, they are in. A more interesting scenario will be encountered if North Carolina wins. Would a one-loss Tar Heels team jump six spots to reach the top 4 if they knock off top-ranked Clemson? Or would the committee go with a one-loss Ohio State or two-loss Stanford (assuming the Cardinal win the Pac 12)?

2. Auburn shocks Alabama

Auburn kept it close for a while, but eventually the Tide rode Derrick Henry to another Alabama victory, 29 - 13. If they can make it past the reeling Gators in the SEC title game, they'll clinch a playoff spot.

3. Zeke bounces back with 200+ yards vs TTUN

It may have been a week too late, but #15 got the necessary carries and proved he can run against the best. Elliott carried the ball 30 times for 214 yards as the Buckeyes rolled to a 42 - 13 win. But with Michigan State handling Penn State, the Spartans clinched the B1G East title and removed OSU's shot at a repeat conference championship. Don't count out the Bucks entirely, though. FiveThirtyEight gives Ohio State a 22% chance to make the playoffs, despite not playing this weekend.

4. Nebraska thwarts Iowa's playoff hopes

Another game that was close, but eventually went the way of the favorite. The Hawkeyes kept their B1G title and playoff hopes alive with a 28 - 20 win over the Cornhuskers, to record their first 12-win season in school history. They head to Indy next week to face their toughest challenge of the year, squaring off against the Spartans in what is essentially a play-in game for a top four spot.

5. I use the letter M on Saturday

I tried, but was unsuccessful. Too many words contain that vile 13th letter. Perhaps a change to the alphabet is in order? I suggest we replace 'M' with 'B' (for Buckeyes) in all words. It bakes sense to be!

Week 13 record: 2 - 3
Overall record: 18.5 - 46.5

Other headlines from week 13:

Baylor, Notre Dame go down while Oklahoma solidifies position in top 4

We're starting to achieve clarity in the big dance which is the college football playoff race. There are probably only 8 teams left with a realistic shot at competing for a national championship. In just a few days, the list of contenders will be narrowed down to 4. But will it be clear-cut or will there be controversy, like last year?

MSU center Jack Allen scores TD, Dantonio smiles

With a big lead, late in the game, the Spartans decided to try and get their senior center more involved in the action as he lined up at tailback for 1st and goal. As rare as big guy touchdowns are, the score led to what might be even rarer: a Mark Dantonio smile (not shown in the below video as the film instantly vaporized the moment after it captured the MSU coach's mythical grin).

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

My College Football Week 14 Rankings

For the first time this season, the committee and I have the same four teams atop the rankings, albeit in a different order. I'm still giving Iowa more credit for going undefeated, but otherwise my top six looks a lot like theirs. The most notable difference after that is North Carolina's position. I've given the Tar Heels a bigger benefit of the doubt at #7, while the committee has them at 10th, likely the result of a weak resume which included two FCS opponents and an ugly week 1 loss to 3 - 9 South Carolina. A lot of speculation has been made this week about what would happen in the event of possible upsets in conference championships. Ohio State and Stanford (if they win) both appear in good position in the rankings (mine and the CFP committee's) should Alabama or Clemson go down. But UNC is in a bit of a precarious spot even if they beat Clemson, at least in the eyes of Jeff Long, et al. With this being only the second year of the playoffs, there is still a lot of uncertainty about how this will play out, if there is indeed chaos. Meanwhile, Oklahoma looks like a lock for a playoff spot, as does the winner between Iowa and Michigan State.

The playoff field (for now):

1. Clemson (12-0), ACC

The victory over South Carolina wasn't pretty, but it was good enough. Just one more win, against North Carolina in the ACC Championship, and the Tigers are in the playoffs with a likely #1 seed.

2. Iowa (12-0), B1G

Like the Tigers, the Hawkeyes finished off a perfect regular season and are one more victory away from capturing a conference title and playoff berth. Win and they're in, lose and Michigan State takes their place in the final four.

3. Alabama (11-1), SEC

The Crimson Tide took care of Auburn in the Iron Bowl in order to advance to the SEC championship and maintain their spot at #3 on my list. Unless Florida gets their offensive issues straightened out in the next week, Alabama will cruise to a victory and get another shot at the playoffs.

4. Oklahoma (11-1), Big 12 ⇧1

Although they sit at #4 in my rankings, after taking Notre Dame's place, the Sooners may be the safest bet to reach the playoffs at this point. They already wrapped up a Big 12 title with their dominating win over Oklahoma State and I don't foresee any scenario that would cause them to drop out of the top four.