My College Football Final Rankings

The final rankings are out, and in general there isn't a lot to disagree with.  My top 4 looks the same, except I have Michigan State and Alabama reversed.  I also have Ohio State, Iowa, and Stanford in a slightly different order in the 5-7 spots.  Ohio State and Iowa have very similar resumes, with each suffering a 3-point loss to Michigan State.  However, given the circumstances of the Buckeye's loss (bad weather, star running back hospitalized days before the game), I give them a slight edge over the Hawkeyes.  And I think that 1-loss non-champs in a strong-looking Big Ten should be ahead of a 2-loss Stanford, despite the Cardinal's beefier resume and Pac 12 title.  Remember - one of Stanford's two losses came at the hands of Northwestern, a team that Iowa beat by 30 points.  Speaking of which, I think the Wildcats should be ranked higher, and so should Houston.  On the flip side, I think Ole Miss is over-ranked and I punished Baylor and Florida more significantly for ugly losses.

The playoff field:

1. Clemson (13-0), ACC

The Tigers danced their way into the playoffs as the only remaining undefeated team.  They'll hope to fare better than Florida State did last year, the lone unbeaten in the first iteration of the College Football Playoff.  The Seminoles were crushed 59 - 20 by Oregon in the Rose Bowl.  This year, Clemson will take on Oklahoma in the Orange bowl to vie for a spot in the title game.

2. Michigan State (12-1), B1G ⇧3

The B1G champ moved up into the top 4 with a victory over Iowa in Indy.  I have them above Alabama, and to me it's not even that close.  The Spartans own wins over #5 Iowa (12 - 1), #7 Ohio State (11 - 1), and #14 Michigan (9 - 3).  Alabama's best wins are vs #19 Florida (10 - 3) and #20 LSU (8 - 3).  The committee has made it painfully clear that it's not about who you lose to, but who you beat.  And so Michigan State's resume makes them look like the best 1-loss team without a doubt.

3. Alabama (12-1), SEC ⇩1

They took care of business against Florida in the SEC championship game, and punched their ticket to the playoffs for the second straight year as a result.  They'll face off against a Big Ten opponent in the semi-final round once again, but will be hoping for a different result this time around.

4. Oklahoma (11-1), Big 12

The Sooners had already wrapped up their playoff spot with a win over Oklahoma State and an outright conference title.  The Big 12 was left out last year - can Oklahoma prove they belong despite the lack of a league championship game?

The rest:

Rank	Team	Record	Conf	Trend
5	Ohio State	11-1	B1G	⇧1
6	Iowa	12-1	B1G	⇩4
7	Stanford	11-2	Pac 12	⇧1
8	Florida State	10-2	ACC	⇧1
9	Notre Dame	10-2	Indep	⇧1
10	Northwestern	10-2	B1G	⇧1
11	North Carolina	11-2	ACC	⇩4
12	Houston	12-1	AAC	⇧3
13	Oklahoma State	10-2	Big 12	--
14	TCU	10-2	Big 12	--
15	Michigan	9-3	B1G	⇧2
16	Oregon	9-3	SEC	⇧2
17	Ole Miss	9-3	Pac 12	⇧2
18	Navy	9-2	AAC	⇧3
19	Utah	9-3	SEC	⇧3
20	LSU	8-3	SEC	⇧3
21	Baylor	9-3	Big 12	⇩9
22	Wisconsin	9-3	B1G	⇧2
23	Florida	10-3	SEC	⇩7
24	Temple	10-3	AAC	⇩4
25	Western Kentucky	11-2	C-USA	New

Dropped from rankings: USC 25

Previous rankings:
Week 14
Week 13
Week 12
Week 11
Week 10

My College Football Week 14 Rankings

For the first time this season, the committee and I have the same four teams atop the rankings, albeit in a different order.  I'm still giving Iowa more credit for going undefeated, but otherwise my top six looks a lot like theirs.  The most notable difference after that is North Carolina's position.  I've given the Tar Heels a bigger benefit of the doubt at #7, while the committee has them at 10th, likely the result of a weak resume which included two FCS opponents and an ugly week 1 loss to 3 - 9 South Carolina.  A lot of speculation has been made this week about what would happen in the event of possible upsets in conference championships.  Ohio State and Stanford (if they win) both appear in good position in the rankings (mine and the CFP committee's) should Alabama or Clemson go down.  But UNC is in a bit of a precarious spot even if they beat Clemson, at least in the eyes of Jeff Long, et al.  With this being only the second year of the playoffs,  there is still a lot of uncertainty about how this will play out, if there is indeed chaos.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma looks like a lock for a playoff spot, as does the winner between Iowa and Michigan State.

The playoff field (for now):

1. Clemson (12-0), ACC

The victory over South Carolina wasn't pretty, but it was good enough.  Just one more win, against North Carolina in the ACC Championship, and the Tigers are in the playoffs with a likely #1 seed.

2. Iowa (12-0), B1G

Like the Tigers, the Hawkeyes finished off a perfect regular season and are one more victory away from capturing a conference title and playoff berth.  Win and they're in, lose and Michigan State takes their place in the final four.

3. Alabama (11-1), SEC

The Crimson Tide took care of Auburn in the Iron Bowl in order to advance to the SEC championship and maintain their spot at #3 on my list.  Unless Florida gets their offensive issues straightened out in the next week, Alabama will cruise to a victory and get another shot at the playoffs.

4. Oklahoma (11-1), Big 12  ⇧1

Although they sit at #4 in my rankings, after taking Notre Dame's place, the Sooners may be the safest bet to reach the playoffs at this point.  They already wrapped up a Big 12 title with their dominating win over Oklahoma State and I don't foresee any scenario that would cause them to drop out of the top four.

The rest:

Rank	Team	Record	Conf	Trend
5	Michigan State	11-1	B1G	⇧1
6	Ohio State	11-1	B1G	⇧2
7	North Carolina	11-1	ACC	⇧4
8	Stanford	10-2	Pac 12	⇧5
9	Florida State	10-2	ACC	⇧5
10	Notre Dame	10-2	Indep	⇩6
11	Northwestern	10-2	B1G	⇧4
12	Baylor	9-2	Big 12	⇩5
13	Oklahoma State	10-2	Big 12	⇩4
14	TCU	10-2	Big 12	⇧3
15	Houston	11-1	AAC	⇧5
16	Florida	10-2	SEC	⇩6
17	Michigan	9-3	B1G	⇩5
18	Oregon	9-3	Pac 12	⇧3
19	Ole Miss	9-3	SEC	⇧3
20	Temple	10-2	AAC	⇧4
21	Navy	9-2	AAC	⇩5
22	Utah	9-3	Pac 12	New
23	LSU	8-3	SEC	New
24	Wisconsin	9-3	B1G	New
25	USC	8-4	Pac 12	New

Dropped from rankings: Washington State 19, UCLA 22, Toledo 23, Mississippi State 25

Previous rankings:
Week 13
Week 12
Week 11
Week 10

My College Football Week 13 Rankings

I still have Iowa higher than the committee does in their top 25, and they opted for Oklahoma instead of Notre Dame for a playoff spot, but otherwise my top 6 looks pretty similar to theirs.  I still think they are short-changing North Carolina, at only 14 in their rankings (vs 11 in mine).  Otherwise, there aren't a lot of major differences between my list and theirs.

The playoff field (for now):

1. Clemson (11-0), ACC

It was business as usual for the Tigers, who dispatched Wake Forest with ease to move to 11-0 and hold steady at number one in my rankings.

2. Iowa (11-0), B1G ⇧1

The Hawkeyes slide up to the second spot with the Buckeyes losing to Michigan State.  This is turning into a magical season for Ferentz's crew, but can they finish strong and reach the playoffs?

3. Alabama (10-1), SEC ⇧2

Ohio State and Oklahoma State going down also paves the way for the Crimson Tide to move into the top 4, now firmly in control of their playoff destiny, if they weren't already.

4. Notre Dame (10-1), Big 12  ⇧2

The Irish move up as well, but Oklahoma is nipping at their heels.  They'll be hoping for an Oklahoma State victory over the Sooners next week, while folks all over the state of Oklahoma will be rooting for Stanford to beat Notre Dame.

The rest:

Rank	Team	Record	Conf	Trend
5	Oklahoma	10-1	Big 12	⇧2
6	Michigan State	10-1	B1G	⇧3
7	Baylor	9-1	Big 12	⇧5
8	Ohio State	10-1	B1G	⇩6
9	Oklahoma State	10-1	Big 12	⇩5
10	Florida	10-1	SEC	⇩2
11	North Carolina	10-1	ACC	--
12	Michigan	9-2	B1G	⇧2
13	Stanford	9-2	Pac 12	⇧2
14	Florida State	9-2	ACC	⇧4
15	Northwestern	9-2	B1G	⇧5
16	Navy	9-1	AAC	⇧3
17	TCU	9-2	Big 12	⇩4
18	Oregon	8-3	Pac 12	⇧5
19	Washington State	8-3	Pac 12	⇧3
20	Houston	10-1	AAC	⇩10
21	Ole Miss	8-3	SEC	New
22	UCLA	8-3	Pac 12	⇧3
23	Toledo	9-1	MAC	New
24	Temple	9-2	AAC	New
25	Mississippi State	8-3	SEC	New

Dropped from rankings: LSU 16, Utah 17, Wisconsin 21, USC 22

Previous rankings:
Week 12
Week 11
Week 10

My College Football Week 12 Rankings

I decided that I will determine my rankings before the committee releases their top 25, but I will wait until afterwards to post them.  That way, I can outline any major differences between my list and theirs.  For example, this week, there is still the major difference of my top 4 including only the undefeated Power 5 teams (all of them now, with Baylor losing) and the committee having once-beaten Alabama and Notre Dame in theirs.  I just think that a perfect resume trumps a one-loss record, even if that team has played a slightly tougher schedule.  Some other big differences are that I have Houston and North Carolina much higher in my top 25, which again, shows that I am looking more favorably at the records and not weighing SoS quite as much.  There are also some discrepancies in the 20-25 range, but really, there are a lot of choices for who could fill those spots and it doesn't matter that much at this point.  For me, I see the lack of an elite team in the Pac 12 (with Utah and Stanford each taking losses this weekend) as evidence that it's one of the deeper leagues this year.  They may not get a team in the playoffs, but they have some competitive 3-loss teams and that's why they round out the last 4 spots in my week 12 rankings.

The playoff field (for now):

1. Clemson (10-0), ACC

The Tigers had some trouble putting away Syracuse, but still have the strongest resume of any team, so they keep the top spot.

2. Ohio State (10-0), B1G ⇧1

The Buckeyes looked a little sluggish on offense against Illinois but had a dominating defensive effort. The performance on its own was not enough to justify a move up, but Oklahoma State's near loss to Iowa State was reason for the Cowboys to move down.

3. Iowa (10-0), B1G ⇧1

The Hawkeyes survived a good Minnesota team, and like Ohio State, move up because of Oklahoma State's struggles.

4. Oklahoma State (10-0), Big 12  ⇩2

The Cowboys needed a furious rally to beat the Cyclones, and that is why they dropped to number 4 in my rankings.  They will have chances to climb, though, with games against Baylor and Oklahoma up next. But really, there is not much difference (in my mind) between any of my top 4 teams at this point.

The rest:

Rank	Team	Record	Conf	Trend
5	Alabama	9-1	SEC	⇧1
6	Notre Dame	9-1	Indep	⇧1
7	Oklahoma	9-1	Big 12	⇧5
8	Florida	9-1	SEC	⇧1
9	Michigan State	9-1	B1G	⇧4
10	Houston	10-0	AAC	⇧5
11	North Carolina	9-1	ACC	⇧6
12	Baylor	9-1	Big 12	⇩7
13	TCU	9-1	Big 12	⇧1
14	Michigan	8-2	B1G	⇧2
15	Stanford	8-2	Pac 12	⇩5
16	LSU	8-2	SEC	⇩8
17	Utah	8-2	Pac 12	⇩6
18	Florida State	8-2	ACC	⇧1
19	Navy	8-1	AAC	⇧2
20	Northwestern	8-2	B1G	--
21	Wisconsin	8-2	B1G	⇧4
22	Washington State	7-3	Pac 12	New
23	Oregon	7-3	Pac 12	New
24	USC	7-3	Pac 12	New
25	UCLA	7-3	Pac 12	⇩7

Previous rankings:
Week 11
Week 10

My College Football Week 11 Rankings

Oklahoma State and Alabama impressed with big wins over ranked opponents, and that is reflected in this week's rankings.  The Crimson Tide may not be as high in my rankings as they will likely be in the committee's, as I am giving the undefeated teams a bit more credit.  It certainly didn't help that many of Alabama's ranked opponents lost this week, including Ole Miss, who beat the Tide but has since lost three games.  Meanwhile, Clemson claimed the top spot, Navy and Mississippi State entered my top 25, and many teams inched higher with wins while undefeated teams LSU, Michigan State, TCU, and Memphis lost and dropped.

The playoff field (for now):

1. Clemson (9-0), ACC ⇧1

The Tigers claim the top spot after finally beating Florida State, breaking a three game losing streak against the Seminoles.  It also helped that LSU was handed their first loss.

2. Oklahoma State (9-0), Big 12 ⇧6

The Cowboys surprised many by taking down the Big 12 favorite, TCU, and doing so with relative ease.  If they can survive a November schedule that includes Baylor and Oklahoma, they will be in the playoffs.

3. Ohio State (9-0), B1G

The offense looked lost at times without Barrett, but still managed to win against Goldy as the Buckeyes remain in the hunt for a repeat championship.

4. Iowa (9-0), B1G

The Hawkeyes keep winning, without getting much credit.  But if they avoid an upset loss in November, they'll be one upset win away from crashing the CFP party.

The rest:

Rank	Team	Record	Conf	Trend
5	Baylor	9-0	Big 12	⇧1
6	Alabama	8-1	SEC	⇧5
7	Notre Dame	8-1	Indep	⇧3
8	LSU	8-1	SEC	⇩7
9	Florida	8-1	SEC	--
10	Stanford	8-1	Pac 12	⇧2
11	Utah	8-1	Pac 12	⇧2
12	Oklahoma	8-1	Big 12	⇧2
13	Michigan State	8-1	B1G	⇩8
14	TCU	8-1	Big 12	⇩7
15	Houston	9-0	AAC	⇧2
16	Michigan	7-2	B1G	⇧2
17	North Carolina	8-1	ACC	⇧2
18	UCLA	7-2	Pac 12	⇧4
19	Florida State	7-2	ACC	⇩3
20	Northwestern	7-2	B1G	⇧3
21	Navy	7-1	AAC	New
22	Temple	8-1	AAC	⇩1
23	Mississippi State	7-2	SEC	New
24	Memphis	8-1	AAC	⇩9
25	Wisconsin	8-2	B1G	--

Previous rankings:
Week 10

My College Football Week 10 Rankings

Here is my first attempt at a top 25 for the year. I will continue to update these each week around the same time the committee announces their rankings.  This week they come in after the committee's list, but in the future I'll try to get mine out before they release theirs.

The playoff field (for now):

1. LSU (7-0), SEC

They boast an impressive victory over Florida, but otherwise their schedule is back-loaded.  Keep winning and they will stay on top.

2. Clemson (8-0), ACC

The Tigers' win over Notre Dame is what sets them apart from many other undefeated squads.  If they can beat Florida State and win the ACC, they will likely be in the playoff.

3. Ohio State (8-0), B1G

The Buckeyes are defending champs, but lack a signature victory.  With a tough November slate coming up, that could change, though.

4. Iowa (8-0), B1G

No one is giving the Hawkeyes much love, but you can't deny what they've done.  They have beaten quality teams in Pitt and Wisconsin.  They might not be flashy, but they get the job done.

The rest:

Rank	Team	Record	Conf	Trend
5	Michigan State	8-0	B1G	--
6	Baylor	8-0	Big 12	--
7	TCU	8-0	Big 12	--
8	Oklahoma State	8-0	Big 12	--
9	Florida	7-1	SEC	--
10	Notre Dame	7-1	Indep	--
11	Alabama	7-1	SEC	--
12	Stanford	7-1	Pac 12	--
13	Utah	7-1	Pac 12	--
14	Oklahoma	7-1	Big 12	--
15	Memphis	8-0	AAC	--
16	Florida State	7-1	ACC	--
17	Houston	8-0	AAC	--
18	Michigan	6-2	B1G	--
19	North Carolina	7-1	ACC	--
20	Ole Miss	7-2	SEC	--
21	Temple	7-1	AAC	--
22	UCLA	6-2	Pac 12	--
23	Northwestern	6-2	B1G	--
24	Texas A&M	6-2	SEC	--
25	Wisconsin	7-2	B1G	--

My College Football Rankings

I've waited to weigh in on rankings (for the most part) until now.  Here is my top 25, with a bit of an explanation for the top 4 teams.

1. Florida State

As the only undefeated team in FBS, the Seminoles take the top spot.  They may not be the best in the country, but until someone proves it, they belong here.

2. Oregon

The Ducks barely edge out Alabama for the number two spot.  Oregon got a do-over against Arizona, proving that they really are the better team.  Avenging that loss and winning the Pac-12 in dominating fashion earned them this place.

3. Alabama

Yes, they won the SEC.  But the Crimson Tide had a number of close games that could have gone either way.  Not quite as many as Florida State, but the one loss makes the difference here and is why they are a bit lower in my rankings.

4. Ohio State

The coveted fourth spot.  The loss to Virginia Tech looks bad, but it was the earliest for any of the one-loss teams.  The Buckeyes are a young squad that has improved more than any other team this year.  If Ohio State played the Hokies today, it would not even be close -  and anyone who believes differently has either not seen the Buckeyes play since week 2 or is named Mark May.  Baylor and TCU were hurt by the Big 12 not having a championship game, and possibly the fact that they were presented as co-champions.  Additionally, the lack of a championship game meant 3 bye weeks and only 12 games for the Bears and Horned Frogs.  That's one extra week of rest and preparation and one less chance to lose. On the flip side, the Buckeyes took advantage of their 13th game by absolutely demolishing Wisconsin and earning an outright Conference title.   OSU also has a better strength of schedule when compared to TCU and Baylor.  All these factors led me to agree with the committee's decision to put Ohio State in the playoffs ahead of the Big 12 co-champs.

5. Baylor
6.  TCU
7. Michigan State
8. Mississippi State
9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia Tech
11. Kansas State
12. UCLA
13. Arizona
14. Georgia
15. Missouri
16. Wisconsin
17. Arizona State
18. Clemson
19. Louisville
20. Boise State
21. Auburn
22. Nebraska
23. LSU
24. Utah
25. Minnesota