College Football Week 12 Recap

Can we just pretend week 12 didn't happen? No?  Well, here's how I did on my bold predictions, then:

1. Oklahoma State implodes against Baylor in multiple-TD loss

I'm giving myself half credit for this one, as I think you could certainly call their performance against the Bears an implosion.  It was only a last-minute TD by the cowboys that kept this one from being 100% true, as they lost 45 - 35 (which was also pretty close to my 48 - 34 prediction).  Oklahoma State is technically still alive in the playoff hunt after the loss, but both teams would likely need outside help to have a realistic shot at the top 4.  Funny enough, Oklahoma State will be rooting against Baylor in their next two games (to eliminate the Bears' head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cowboys) while Baylor will be rooting for Oklahoma State in their finale against Oklahoma (to eliminate the Sooners' tiebreaker over the Bears).

2. Virginia Tech spoils North Carolina's special season in Beamer's final home game

They fought valiantly, but in the end it wasn't enough for the Hokies, who lost in overtime to the talented Tar Heels.  I would like to point out that I did nail the score prediction of 30 - 27, but had the winner and loser reversed (obviously).  With the win, North Carolina stays in the hunt for an ACC title (and possibly more?), while Virginia Tech keeps searching for bowl eligibility.

3. Ohio State drops 40+ on Sparty

So, obviously this didn't happen.  In fact, it was quite the opposite, as the Buckeyes had their worst offensive outing since Meyer arrived in Columbus.  A lot of people have blamed bad play-calling for the loss (and certainly that was a big part of it), but in reality there were a lot of factors that contributed.  Everything from poor execution to questionable decision-making to the nasty weather played a part in this perfect storm that ended a perfect season.  Now, regardless of exactly where the problem lies, it's clear that there are issues on the offensive side of the ball for Ohio State.  And it's obvious that there is no lack of talent, so it boils down to a coaching issue one way or another.  Now, I'm not in the camp that the Buckeyes need to fire or demote anyone, necessarily, but some change is definitely imminent if OSU wants to stay competitive.  I see a lot of similarities to the 2013 season, actually.  The Buckeyes went 12-0 in the regular season despite some glaring problems on defense.  After finishing the season with losses to Michigan State and Clemson, a lot of people were calling for co-defensive coordinator Luke Fickell's job.  But, instead of firing a key member from the Tressel era coaching staff (remember some of the defenses the Buckeyes had under the Senator?), Meyer brought in Chris Ash to revamp the Silver Bullets.  2014 saw changes to the defensive schemes and overall tackling techniques and positive results were seen almost immediately.  The rest is history, so they say.  I expect that some change will come out of the offensive struggles that we've seen all year.  Whether that means letting some one go, bringing someone new in, changing the playbook, or all of the above is yet to be seen.  But I don't think anyone really knows where the issues lie other than Meyer and a select few on his coaching staff.  For now, the Buckeyes turn their focus to The Game, as they try to move past the 17 - 14 loss to the Spartans.  Nothing will help more than a win over their arch-rivals.

4. Penn State ends Michigan's B1G hopes

The Nittany Lions still lack a signature win after coming up short against another ranked opponent, losing 28 - 16 to Michigan.  The Wolverines will join Ohio State fans in rooting for Penn State to get that elusive statement win next week against the Spartans, who holds the tiebreaker over both Michigan and Ohio State in the B1G East race.  Of course, it only matters for the winner of The Game, as the loser will be out of Big Ten title contention either way.

5. An SEC team falls in non-league play

Ironically, the one bold prediction I didn't think I had a realistic shot at was the only one I got 100% right.  South Carolina gifted me this one with their 23 - 22 loss to The Citadel.  It's also worth mentioning that Florida and Georgia both needed overtime to beat their opponents, Florida Atlantic and Georgia Southern, respectively.  The only possible explanation for this is... SEC! SEC! SEC!

Week 12 record: 1.5 - 3.5
Overall record: 16.5 - 43.5

Check out my week 13 rankings

Other headlines from week 12:

And then there were two

Just like all the experts predicted back in September, the lone unbeatens remaining as we approach the end of the regular season are the Iowa Hawkeyes and Clemson Tigers.  Really, though, who saw that coming?  Clemson was at least a popular preseason pick to win the ACC but Iowa wasn't on anyone's radar.  Now both these teams are just a couple wins away from a shot to play for a national championship.  If that happens, there will be quite the competition between one-loss teams for the last two playoff spots.

Lane Kiffin doesn't like it when you touch him there

A tap on the behind might be the universal football gesture for "Outstanding job!  That was a mighty fine play."  But Alabama's offensive coordinator doesn't care and will not stand for this inappropriate touching.

My College Football Week 13 Rankings

I still have Iowa higher than the committee does in their top 25, and they opted for Oklahoma instead of Notre Dame for a playoff spot, but otherwise my top 6 looks pretty similar to theirs.  I still think they are short-changing North Carolina, at only 14 in their rankings (vs 11 in mine).  Otherwise, there aren't a lot of major differences between my list and theirs.

The playoff field (for now):

1. Clemson (11-0), ACC

It was business as usual for the Tigers, who dispatched Wake Forest with ease to move to 11-0 and hold steady at number one in my rankings.

2. Iowa (11-0), B1G ⇧1

The Hawkeyes slide up to the second spot with the Buckeyes losing to Michigan State.  This is turning into a magical season for Ferentz's crew, but can they finish strong and reach the playoffs?

3. Alabama (10-1), SEC ⇧2

Ohio State and Oklahoma State going down also paves the way for the Crimson Tide to move into the top 4, now firmly in control of their playoff destiny, if they weren't already.

4. Notre Dame (10-1), Big 12  ⇧2

The Irish move up as well, but Oklahoma is nipping at their heels.  They'll be hoping for an Oklahoma State victory over the Sooners next week, while folks all over the state of Oklahoma will be rooting for Stanford to beat Notre Dame.

The rest:

Rank	Team	Record	Conf	Trend
5	Oklahoma	10-1	Big 12	⇧2
6	Michigan State	10-1	B1G	⇧3
7	Baylor	9-1	Big 12	⇧5
8	Ohio State	10-1	B1G	⇩6
9	Oklahoma State	10-1	Big 12	⇩5
10	Florida	10-1	SEC	⇩2
11	North Carolina	10-1	ACC	--
12	Michigan	9-2	B1G	⇧2
13	Stanford	9-2	Pac 12	⇧2
14	Florida State	9-2	ACC	⇧4
15	Northwestern	9-2	B1G	⇧5
16	Navy	9-1	AAC	⇧3
17	TCU	9-2	Big 12	⇩4
18	Oregon	8-3	Pac 12	⇧5
19	Washington State	8-3	Pac 12	⇧3
20	Houston	10-1	AAC	⇩10
21	Ole Miss	8-3	SEC	New
22	UCLA	8-3	Pac 12	⇧3
23	Toledo	9-1	MAC	New
24	Temple	9-2	AAC	New
25	Mississippi State	8-3	SEC	New

Dropped from rankings: LSU 16, Utah 17, Wisconsin 21, USC 22

Previous rankings:
Week 12
Week 11
Week 10

Ohio State of Mind: Michigan State

The true test begins now.

The grind is over.  It's time to let loose because there's no one left on our schedule who won't challenge us and fight us to the very end.  Same goes for our TBD schedule, which could be an even more daunting task than what lies directly ahead.  Forget about last year's epic three game gauntlet.  The true test begins now.

The real battle for the East begins now.

Three teams left.  In two weeks, one will emerge victorious and head to Indy with dreams of going even further.  It might come down to who wants it more, who is hungrier.  Make sure that team is us.  The real battle for the East begins now.

Beat TSUN: Part 2 begins now.

Part 1 was a solid, but uninspiring success.  But who can blame us for not caring about a directional school?  It was the appetizer in a three-course meal.  Now we're hungrier than ever.  Beat TSUN: Part 2 begins now.

The Chase: Part 2 begins now.

Last year was all about embracing the underdog role.  We surprised folks around the country week after week.  This time around, there's no surprising anyone.  We aren't the underdog.  But that doesn't mean we will lose our edge in big games.  We are still chasing.  We're chasing back-to-back titles.  The Chase: Part 2 begins now.

11-0 begins now.  24 straight wins begins now.  31 consecutive regular-season Big Ten wins begins now.

The final home game for our seniors begins now.  Make it a good one.

Go Bucks.  Beat Michigan State.

College Football Week 12 Bold Predictions

I was on fire last week.  Can I keep it going in week 12?

1. Oklahoma State implodes against Baylor in multiple-TD loss

Playoff hopes are still alive for both these teams, though the path is clearer for the Cowboys : win and they're in.  But I expect an angry Baylor team to show up in Stillwater, as the Bears look to become a serious roadblock for Oklahoma State.  Baylor makes things interesting in the Big 12 race with a 48 - 34 thumping of the Cowboys, who seem destined for a collapse.

2. Virginia Tech spoils North Carolina's special season in Beamer's final home game

The Hokies are 5 - 5, but have been competitive against all their opponents this year, even in their losses.  They've picked up steam after beating Boston College and Georgia Tech but still look to get bowl eligible.  With a coaching legend on the sideline for his final game in Blacksburg, these players will be giving it their all to send Frank out on a high note.  The Tarheels have been playing lights-out since their week 1 loss but I think they fall victim to the trap game on Saturday.  Hokies prevail, 30 - 27.

3. Ohio State drops 40+ on Sparty

Since the season opener, the Buckeyes have only exceeded 40 points twice, in wins against Maryland and Rutgers.  Michigan State is undeniably the best team OSU will have faced so far, but the Spartan defense isn't quite as stingy as it has been the last two years.  Still, they give up only 22 points per game on average and Ohio State has been inconsistent at times moving the ball.  But I think this is where it all comes together for OSU's offense, as the Buckeyes make a statement in a 42 - 23 win.

4. Penn State ends Michigan's B1G hopes

The Wolverines were gashed on the ground by Indiana last week, and will have to get back to their earlier season form on defense to survive the Nittany Lions this weekend.  Penn State is by no means an offensive juggernaut, but they always play considerably better at home.  They've yet to lose one in Beaver Stadium in 2015 and I don't think they do this week.  Nittany Lions knock off Michigan, 27 - 24.

5. An SEC team falls in non-league play

As usual, the rest of the country plays cupcakes while college footballs premier conference takes on some real competition.  The SEC's non-conference gauntlet this week includes: Florida Atlantic, The Citadel, Idaho, Charleston Southern, Georgia Southern, and Charlotte.  It's a tough slate, but the SEC is still expected to sweep the field, because S-E-C!, S-E-C!, S-E-C!  However, I'm calling for a loss in there, despite how great the conference is.  I just can't imagine the entire league making it through the weekend unscathed with that set of match-ups.  And don't take my word for it, just listen to Alabama's Nick Saban talk up his FCS opponent.

College Football Week 11 Recap

It was the best week of the season so far for my bold predictions:

1. Oregon gives Stanford taste of their own medicine with upset win over Cardinal

This may be my best bold prediction of the year to date, as not too many people were expecting the Ducks to compete, let alone win this game.  But win they did, with a score of 38 - 36, very close to my 37 - 34 prediction.  With Stanford and Utah both losing their second games of the season, it now looks like a very real possibility that the Pac 12 will be excluded from this year's playoffs.

2. Oklahoma gets revenge on Baylor with double-digit win

Another prediction that I nailed, as the Bears struggled to move the ball consistently against a decent defense, and eventually fell to the Sooners, 44 - 34.  There is still a lot of football to be played in the Big 12, but Oklahoma looks like they might be the top contender in that league.  Their season finale showdown with Oklahoma State certainly looks like it could be a huge game, with serious playoff implications.

3. Slobs pave way for 300+ rushing yards vs Illinois

The Buckeyes were close, with 283 yards on the ground, but the Illini defense played much better than I expected overall and busted this prediction as a result.  It's clear that the improved numbers for the Illinois defense show real progress on that side of the ball.  But on the other side, Ohio State dominated on defense once again, allowing only 3 points and keeping the Illini from ever really threatening to end the Buckeyes' win streak.  That said, OSU will have to be much better on offense going forward, as the competition gets drastically tougher from here on out, starting with Michigan State next week.  For now, the Buckeyes will enjoy the 28 - 3 victory.

4. Iowa falls to Minnesota

The Gophers came up just short once again in their third straight week facing a ranked opponent.  The Hawkeyes now need just one more win to clinch their division and a berth in the B1G championship.  But they're likely eyeing much more than that, as they appear on the cusp of a top-4 ranking after a 40 - 35 win over Minnesota.

5. Missouri scores points

The Tigers not only scored points, but they exceeded their season scoring average with an offensive explosion of 20 points.  And to top it off, it was even enough to beat BYU, who only managed 16 points.  Perhaps the turmoil at Mizzou brought the football team closer together, rather than divide them as I thought it might.  Or maybe BYU just isn't that good.

Week 11 record: 3 - 2
Overall record: 15 - 40

Check out my week 12 rankings

Other headlines from week 11:

Michigan survives 2OT thriller in Bloomington

It was another wild finish for the Wolverines, but this time they managed to come out with the win despite being down by 7 with five seconds to play.  They scored at the last possible moment, to send it to overtime and eventually came out on top.  Perhaps the most surprising part of the game was not that the Hoosiers took Michigan to the brink, but how they did it.  They ran on the Wolverines' vaunted rushing defense seemingly at will, especially late in the game.  Indiana racked up 307 yards on the ground - nearly four times the average allowed by Michigan.  It wasn't until Indiana finally attempted a pass in the second OT period, after 21 straight rushes, that the Hoosiers were stopped.

Harvard marching band pays tribute

A lot of university marching bands have done some pretty amazing stuff on the football field.  Why can't the Ivy League-ers get in on the action too?  Harvard did just that this weekend with this interesting formation.  Can you read what they spelled?

That's right, they spelled "PENN"!  They were of course honoring their opponent, University of Pennsylvania.  That is what you guessed, right?

Ref tells Central Michigan band, cheerleaders to shut up

Isn't making noise kind of the point of home-field advantage?  This ref doesn't think so and he was having none of it.

My College Football Week 12 Rankings

I decided that I will determine my rankings before the committee releases their top 25, but I will wait until afterwards to post them.  That way, I can outline any major differences between my list and theirs.  For example, this week, there is still the major difference of my top 4 including only the undefeated Power 5 teams (all of them now, with Baylor losing) and the committee having once-beaten Alabama and Notre Dame in theirs.  I just think that a perfect resume trumps a one-loss record, even if that team has played a slightly tougher schedule.  Some other big differences are that I have Houston and North Carolina much higher in my top 25, which again, shows that I am looking more favorably at the records and not weighing SoS quite as much.  There are also some discrepancies in the 20-25 range, but really, there are a lot of choices for who could fill those spots and it doesn't matter that much at this point.  For me, I see the lack of an elite team in the Pac 12 (with Utah and Stanford each taking losses this weekend) as evidence that it's one of the deeper leagues this year.  They may not get a team in the playoffs, but they have some competitive 3-loss teams and that's why they round out the last 4 spots in my week 12 rankings.

The playoff field (for now):

1. Clemson (10-0), ACC

The Tigers had some trouble putting away Syracuse, but still have the strongest resume of any team, so they keep the top spot.

2. Ohio State (10-0), B1G ⇧1

The Buckeyes looked a little sluggish on offense against Illinois but had a dominating defensive effort. The performance on its own was not enough to justify a move up, but Oklahoma State's near loss to Iowa State was reason for the Cowboys to move down.

3. Iowa (10-0), B1G ⇧1

The Hawkeyes survived a good Minnesota team, and like Ohio State, move up because of Oklahoma State's struggles.

4. Oklahoma State (10-0), Big 12  ⇩2

The Cowboys needed a furious rally to beat the Cyclones, and that is why they dropped to number 4 in my rankings.  They will have chances to climb, though, with games against Baylor and Oklahoma up next. But really, there is not much difference (in my mind) between any of my top 4 teams at this point.

The rest:

Rank	Team	Record	Conf	Trend
5	Alabama	9-1	SEC	⇧1
6	Notre Dame	9-1	Indep	⇧1
7	Oklahoma	9-1	Big 12	⇧5
8	Florida	9-1	SEC	⇧1
9	Michigan State	9-1	B1G	⇧4
10	Houston	10-0	AAC	⇧5
11	North Carolina	9-1	ACC	⇧6
12	Baylor	9-1	Big 12	⇩7
13	TCU	9-1	Big 12	⇧1
14	Michigan	8-2	B1G	⇧2
15	Stanford	8-2	Pac 12	⇩5
16	LSU	8-2	SEC	⇩8
17	Utah	8-2	Pac 12	⇩6
18	Florida State	8-2	ACC	⇧1
19	Navy	8-1	AAC	⇧2
20	Northwestern	8-2	B1G	--
21	Wisconsin	8-2	B1G	⇧4
22	Washington State	7-3	Pac 12	New
23	Oregon	7-3	Pac 12	New
24	USC	7-3	Pac 12	New
25	UCLA	7-3	Pac 12	⇩7

Previous rankings:
Week 11
Week 10

Ohio State of Mind: at Illinois

Don't look ahead.

We all know what's coming.  But we can't look ahead.  The moment after we look ahead, we will find ourselves looking back, wondering what went wrong.  We can't look ahead.

Don't give back the Illibuck.

It's the first trophy we play for this year. Make sure it's not the last. Keep him in Columbus, where he belongs.

Don't sleep on the Illini.

They've caught us sleeping before and spoiled our quest for perfection.  They would love to do it again and they are more than capable.  Be ready and fight hard from the beginning.  We can't be caught sleeping.  Our honor defend.

Don't believe the hype.

Don't believe the hype about us. We are only as good as how well we play. All the previous wins and the accolades and our top 4 ranking don't matter on the football field. The only thing that matters is that we give everything we've got for our brothers.  We will fight to the end.

Don't lose focus.

Remember why we play - and don't forget: this is a game. But it does matter. Because we play to remind ourselves that there is always something greater than ourselves.  While we do battle on the football field, remember that there are those fighting on actual battlefields.  Remember that there are people losing their lives and all that's at stake for us is the possibility of losing a game.  That doesn't mean it doesn't matter. It might matter more because of that, actually.  Fight hard because we're lucky and can enjoy life and freedom. Don't waste it. Fight hard for France. Fight hard for our country. For Ohio.

Go Bucks. Beat Illinois.