4th Down and Miles to Go: December 2015

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Ohio State of Mind: Fiesta Bowl vs Notre Dame

This is not a consolation prize.

This isn't where we wanted to end up, but that doesn't matter now. If we think we can just show up and win this game, we will be greatly disappointed. Notre Dame wants this. Badly. The last time the Fighting Irish beat the Buckeyes FDR was president of the United States. A gallon of gas cost 10 cents. Rudy would not be born for another 12 years. Since that Notre Dame victory in 1936, Ohio State has won 3 straight in the series, including a win in the Fiesta Bowl exactly 10 years ago. Notre Dame wants this badly.

This is not a meaningless game.

This is about defining a legacy. This class of seniors has the opportunity to win their 50th game. 50 wins in 4 years. No Power 5 team has ever done that before. This might not be a playoff game but it means a lot to a bunch of guys who have poured their hearts into this team. This isn't a championship game; it's a send-off to some special players. Make it a good one.

This is not an insult.

We can believe that we should have been in the final four. Or that we should have been selected by the Rose Bowl. But when it comes down to it, we didn't win when it mattered most. And the Fiesta Bowl vs Notre Dame is still a great game and a great opportunity and it's what we deserve. There are over 100 FBS teams that would gladly trade places with us. Play like we understand that and take nothing for granted. This is a big time bowl against a big time team. Notre Dame is two (or maybe just one) play away from being in the playoff themselves. Don't take them lightly.

This is not the end of a disappointing season.

This is the exclamation point on the legacy of a stellar senior class. This is a new beginning. Win number two of a new winning streak. The closing argument on an outstanding 2015 season. With a victory, we build momentum to carry into the off-season and into the 2016 season, where we will strive to be even better.

Go Bucks. Beat Notre Dame.

College Football Playoff Semifinals Bold Predictions

1. Clemson knocks off Oklahoma to stay undefeated

The Tigers are ranked #1 and hold the only perfect record in college football, but Vegas has the Sooners as 3.5-point favorites in the Orange Bowl. News also broke yesterday that Clemson sent home 3 players for breaking team rules, including stand-out receiver Deon Cain. But I think Deshaun Watson puts the team on his back in a gutsy performance to earn a title game bid. Clemson beats Oklahoma, 38 - 35.

2. Michigan State triumphs over Alabama

The biggest underdog of this year's playoff is Dantonio's squad, but that's exactly where the Spartans want to be. Michigan State has been at their best in the underdog role in recent years, and I expect no different from them on New Year's Eve. MSU wins, 27 - 23.

3. CFP semifinal winners score at least 30 points fewer than last year's Ducks and Bucks

They say that defense wins championships, but last year Ohio State and Oregon proved that a potent offense is good enough to get you to the championship game. The OSU and UO offenses combined for 101 points on New Year's Day of 2015, setting the bar high for this year's competitors. I think Oklahoma and Clemson could both rack up some points, but I expect the game between Michigan State and Alabama to be fairly low-scoring. My guess is the winner's combine for 70 or 71 points, at most.

4. Spartans hold Heisman winner Derrick Henry under 100 rushing yards

Henry has been difficult to stop this season, to say the least, but I think the Michigan State defense is up to the task. The MSU offense may actually make the difference here. If Connor Cook can keep the Spartans ahead of the Crimson Tide, It will go a long way in keeping Henry from really getting going. The running back has been most dangerous late in games, as Alabama goes into clock-killing mode and the opponent's defense is worn down. If Michigan State avoids this situation then I think they have a decent chance to shut down the 2015 Heisman winner.

5. Orange Bowl announcers don't mention last year's 40 - 6 Russell Athletic Bowl blowout

You might not know this, but Oklahoma and Clemson met in the 2014 postseason in the highly prestigious Russell Athletic Bowl. It did not go well for the Sooners. But, since no one else seems to remember this very important game, I'm sure the announcers for the Orange Bowl won't mention it.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

College Football Bowl Season Bold Predictions

1. Hark! The Houston Cougars win

Both Houston and Florida State have momentum heading into their showdown in the Peach Bowl. But the little guy has shown he has what it takes to slay the giant in previous New Year's Six and BCS bowls and this year figures to be no different. The Cougars will have their hands full trying to contain Dalvin Cook, but their dynamic offense should keep it close. Tom Herman comes up with his biggest win since departing Ohio State, as Houston wins 29 - 24.

2. On the first day of '16 OK State will surely see a victory over coach Freeze

We don't know yet if Ole Miss DL Robert Nkemdiche will play in the Sugar Bowl after his recent transgressions. But at a minimum, the Rebels will have the distraction of dealing with questions regarding their star defensive player heading into their match-up with Oklahoma State. I like the Cowboys in this one either way, as Ole Miss has been inconsistent since their early season win over Alabama, just like last year. I think we see a repeat of their bowl performance from last season as well, though maybe not quite as lopsided. Oklahoma State cruises to a 38 - 24 victory.

3. Do you see what I see? Fifteen, fifteen, gashing Notre Dame; With another two hundred in a game; With another two hundred in a game

A lot of people point to OSU's 12th ranked rushing attack vs Notre Dame's 65th ranked rushing defense as a mismatch in this year's Fiesta Bowl. I am one of those people. Zeke had a mere 33 yards in their pivotal loss to Michigan State, but followed it up with a big 214 yard day against the Wolverines in the Buckeyes' regular season finale. I think #15 finishes off his college career with another masterful performance, as he tallies 200+ yards and carries Ohio State to a 35 - 23 win over the Irish in the desert.

4. I'm dreaming of a Hawkeye bowl win, just like the ones I used to know; Where the linemen clash and the running backs dash, to score long touchdowns against their foe

It's the "Granddaddy of Them All" and Iowa is returning for just the sixth time in program history and the first time in 25 years. Stanford, on the other hand, has reached the Rose Bowl fifteen times previously, this being their third visit in the past four years. I don't know if the novelty has worn off for the Cardinal but I think the excitement surrounding this game for the Hawkeyes will give them a definite edge. Both teams are tough, gritty football squads but I like Iowa in this one. They put up a very good fight against Michigan State in the Big Ten championship and I think they will surprise people again with a close win on New Year's day. 20 - 14, Hawkeyes.

5. You better watch out, you better not cry; You better not pout, I'm telling you why; Florida's gonna score a touchdown

The Gators' offense has been abysmal this year, coming in at 109th nationally in total offense. Michigan, meanwhile, is ranked 4th in total defense. But maybe, Florida will find a way into the end zone in the Citrus bowl. It won't be enough to beat the Wolverines, though, as the Gators fall 17 - 10.

Saturday, December 12, 2015

College Football Week 14 Recap

Let's recap my bold predictions from championship week:

1. Favorites all win in SEC, ACC, Pac 12 championship games

Alabama and Clemson locked up spots in the top 4 with wins in their respective conference title games, while Stanford claimed a Pac 12 title and Rose Bowl berth with their victory over USC. It didn't leave any room for Ohio State, or anyone else for that matter, to sneak into the playoffs. You can draw conclusions from the rankings as to whether the Buckeyes had a real shot to make it in, even if there was chaos, but you'd be speculating either way.

2. Temple upsets Houston

I was right that Temple would hold Houston to just 24 points, but the Owls' offense couldn't muster enough firepower to turn it into a victory. Cougars won 24 - 13, thereby earning an AAC title and the opportunity to play Florida State in the Peach Bowl.

3. I will be sad because there is no Buckeye football

:'(

4. Iowa topples MSU, wins Big Ten

It was indeed a close, defensive struggle, and even lower scoring than I anticipated. But in the end, the Hawkeyes couldn't stop Michigan State when it mattered most, as the Spartans drove down the field to score the game-winning touchdown with seconds left on the clock. As a result, MSU heads to the playoffs while Iowa gets a trip to the Rose Bowl.

5. Everybody agrees with the CFP committee's top 4

Believe it or not, pretty much everyone did agree with the committee's top 4. And anyone who doesn't agree suffers from an a obvious bias. There are plenty who might argue the order or whether 4 is the right number (it's not), but a lack of chaos in week 14 made it easy for the committee, as there is indeed a clear-cut top 4.

Week 14 record: 3 - 2
Overall record: 21.5 - 48.5

Other headlines from week 14:

Heisman finalists announced

It's down to just three players for the most prestigious individual award in college football. The players heading to New York are: Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey, Alabama running back Derrick Henry, and Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson. McCaffrey is a do-it-all player with a ridiculous 3,496 all-purpose yards. Henry is your typical workhorse back and is on the verge of 2,000 rushing yards. Watson is a dangerous dual-threat QB who has accounted for more than 40 touchdowns and over 4,000 yards of offense while leading the Tigers to a perfect 13 - 0 season. My money is on McCaffrey to come away with the hardware.

Other awards doled out

Speaking of hardware, here's a nice tracker on ESPN that shows which players have taken home the individual awards for different categories. It's worth noting that conference awards are left off of here. So I want to point out that even though Ezekiel Elliott didn't get an invite to New York for the Heisman trophy ceremony, he was given the Chicago Tribune Silver Football as the Big Ten's best player in 2015.

Navy searches for first 10 win season since 2009

The Midshipmen have had a special year, led by senior quarterback Keenan Reynolds. While most teams prepare for their bowl game (if they were fortunate enough to earn a bowl bid), Navy and Army get set to square off in their annual end-of-year rivalry game. They boast mirror records of 9 - 2 and 2 - 9, but you can bet that neither team will be taking this game lightly.

Thursday, December 10, 2015

My College Football Final Rankings

The final rankings are out, and in general there isn't a lot to disagree with. My top 4 looks the same, except I have Michigan State and Alabama reversed. I also have Ohio State, Iowa, and Stanford in a slightly different order in the 5-7 spots. Ohio State and Iowa have very similar resumes, with each suffering a 3-point loss to Michigan State. However, given the circumstances of the Buckeye's loss (bad weather, star running back hospitalized days before the game), I give them a slight edge over the Hawkeyes. And I think that 1-loss non-champs in a strong-looking Big Ten should be ahead of a 2-loss Stanford, despite the Cardinal's beefier resume and Pac 12 title. Remember - one of Stanford's two losses came at the hands of Northwestern, a team that Iowa beat by 30 points. Speaking of which, I think the Wildcats should be ranked higher, and so should Houston. On the flip side, I think Ole Miss is over-ranked and I punished Baylor and Florida more significantly for ugly losses.

The playoff field:

1. Clemson (13-0), ACC

The Tigers danced their way into the playoffs as the only remaining undefeated team. They'll hope to fare better than Florida State did last year, the lone unbeaten in the first iteration of the College Football Playoff. The Seminoles were crushed 59 - 20 by Oregon in the Rose Bowl. This year, Clemson will take on Oklahoma in the Orange bowl to vie for a spot in the title game.

2. Michigan State (12-1), B1G ⇧3

The B1G champ moved up into the top 4 with a victory over Iowa in Indy. I have them above Alabama, and to me it's not even that close. The Spartans own wins over #5 Iowa (12 - 1), #7 Ohio State (11 - 1), and #14 Michigan (9 - 3). Alabama's best wins are vs #19 Florida (10 - 3) and #20 LSU (8 - 3). The committee has made it painfully clear that it's not about who you lose to, but who you beat. And so Michigan State's resume makes them look like the best 1-loss team without a doubt.

3. Alabama (12-1), SEC ⇩1

They took care of business against Florida in the SEC championship game, and punched their ticket to the playoffs for the second straight year as a result. They'll face off against a Big Ten opponent in the semi-final round once again, but will be hoping for a different result this time around.

4. Oklahoma (11-1), Big 12

The Sooners had already wrapped up their playoff spot with a win over Oklahoma State and an outright conference title. The Big 12 was left out last year - can Oklahoma prove they belong despite the lack of a league championship game?

The rest:

Rank	Team	Record	Conf	Trend
5	Ohio State	11-1	B1G	⇧1
6	Iowa	12-1	B1G	⇩4
7	Stanford	11-2	Pac 12	⇧1
8	Florida State	10-2	ACC	⇧1
9	Notre Dame	10-2	Indep	⇧1
10	Northwestern	10-2	B1G	⇧1
11	North Carolina	11-2	ACC	⇩4
12	Houston	12-1	AAC	⇧3
13	Oklahoma State	10-2	Big 12	--
14	TCU	10-2	Big 12	--
15	Michigan	9-3	B1G	⇧2
16	Oregon	9-3	SEC	⇧2
17	Ole Miss	9-3	Pac 12	⇧2
18	Navy	9-2	AAC	⇧3
19	Utah	9-3	SEC	⇧3
20	LSU	8-3	SEC	⇧3
21	Baylor	9-3	Big 12	⇩9
22	Wisconsin	9-3	B1G	⇧2
23	Florida	10-3	SEC	⇩7
24	Temple	10-3	AAC	⇩4
25	Western Kentucky	11-2	C-USA	New

Dropped from rankings: USC 25

Previous rankings:
Week 14
Week 13
Week 12
Week 11
Week 10

Saturday, December 5, 2015

College Football Week 14 Bold Predictions

1. Favorites all win in SEC, ACC, Pac 12 championship games

My predictions of chaos didn't work out so well last week so I'm going the opposite direction in week 14. Everybody is talking about what happens in all these crazy scenarios, but I think the most probable outcome is no chaos at all. Alabama crushes Florida, 38 - 4 (yes, two safeties), Clemson survives UNC, 35 - 27, and Stanford handles USC, 38 - 28.