1. Florida State beats Oregon in the Rose Bowl
For the first time this season, the Seminoles enter a football game as underdogs. The Ducks are coming in averaging 46 points per game, and Florida State's defense has been inconsistent this year. But I think the Seminoles' defense steps up in this one. If they can defend the edges of the field and keep the speedy Oregon play-makers in front of them they will have a shot at slowing down the up-tempo offense led by Heisman winner Marcus Mariota. They haven't lost yet, and I don't think they lose in Pasadena. Florida State wins, 41 - 38.
2. Jameis Winston throws no more than one interception
The other half of the equation is Jameis Winston, last year's Heisman winner. He's brought a sort of Jekyll and Hyde component to the Seminoles' offense this year, often struggling early and giving opponents an early lead by turning the ball over but then leading his team to rally back in the second half. He can't afford to do that against a talented Oregon team that will run away with the game if given the opportunity. But Heisman voting is done, taking a bit of pressure off of Winston. I think he comes in more relaxed and doesn't try to do too much (which was possibly part of the problem in other games this year). If he can limit the turnovers, I think Florida State will have a shot.
3. Ohio State takes down Alabama, wins Sugar Bowl
Not too many people are giving the Buckeyes a chance in this one, but I think it will be much closer than anticipated. A lot of the focus leading up to this game is on Amari Cooper, who will test the Buckeyes' secondary. But the real battle might be won or lost in the trenches. If the Ohio State defensive line can keep pressure on Blake Sims and not let him get comfortable, it will go a long way in slowing down Alabama's offense. The other important focus for the Buckeye defense should be tackling fundamentals. Tackling has been good at times this year, but bad at other times. If the defense swarms to the ball, and brings down the ball carrier on first contact (creating negative plays and limiting yards after catch), like they did against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, they will be able to keep the game close. Ohio State gets it done, 35 - 33.
4. Cardale Jones passes for 250+ yards against the Crimson Tide defense
Jones threw for 257 yards against a pretty good Wisconsin defense in his first career start, but the Alabama defense is in an entirely different category. And while all eyes will be on Jones in his second start, his success and the success of the offense as a whole is probably more contingent on how the players around him perform. The offensive line needs to give him time to throw and receivers have to be aggressive and go up and get the ball even when it's not thrown quite on target. If these two groups have another strong game, Jones will be setup to do well, giving the Buckeyes a decent shot to win.
5. Playoff teams get tricky three or more times
With a shot at a national championship on the line, coaches will be emptying their playbooks. I won't be surprised to see fake punts, fake field goals, non-quarterbacks throwing the ball, or even an unexpected on-side kick. Whether these trick plays prove to be successful or not may be another story. Either way, these two games should be epic.
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