1. The SEC will get two teams into the inaugural College Football Playoffs, but neither team will win the championship
I was right that an SEC team would not win the championship this year, but Alabama was the conference's only team in the playoffs. Mississippi State was the other SEC team with a shot at the final four, until they lost to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. I still think Ohio State would have gotten the fourth seed even if the Bulldogs won that game, because of the Buckeyes' complete domination of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. And looking at postseason results, it clearly would have been the right call. After going through a season with the new system, it appears that it may be harder than anticipated for a single conference to earn two playoff berths, especially with the SEC's decline and the weight given to league championships.
2. Florida State misses the playoffs and Jameis Winston does not repeat as Heisman winner
Another one that I got half right. Winston finished way down at sixth in Heisman voting after having a significantly worse season than last year, statistically speaking. But in terms of record, they were right where I didn't think they would be at the end of the year: 13 - 0 and in the playoffs. It wasn't until they faced Oregon in the Rose Bowl did they finally lose, but boy was it ugly.
3. By the end of the season, at least three fan-bases will be calling for the heads of the members of the newly established college football playoff selection committee
Baylor coach Art Briles is still talking about missing the playoffs (despite losing to Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl). The folks in Fort Worth? They're likely still lamenting TCU's drop from 3 to 6 in the committee's final rankings. And 11th ranked Kansas State probably wasn't thrilled about playing in the Alamo Bowl while 12th ranked Georgia Tech and 20th ranked Boise State played in the Orange and Fiesta Bowls, respectively (though technically, the committee was obligated to send those two teams to New Year's Six bowls). Basically every Big 12 fan was unhappy with the playoff committee. Florida State fans were grumpy too after being dropped in the rankings throughout the season despite winning week after week (though they didn't have much to complain about after getting thumped by Oregon). So I'd say this prediction was accurate.
4. Ball State goes undefeated, but their weak schedule keeps them out of the playoffs
I was way off on this one. I have to wonder if their season would have been different had they pulled off the upset over Iowa in week 2. But the Cardinals let a 10 point lead slip away in the last 3 minutes of the game and it was all downhill after that. Ball State finished 5 - 7, not even bowl eligible. In hindsight, Marshall would have been the team to peg to go undefeated and miss the playoffs this year, but even they ended up with one loss before all was said and done.5. For the the third straight year, a Freshman wins the Heisman
The three Heisman finalists were all Juniors, including Heisman winner Marcus Mariota. J.T. Barrett received the most votes of any Freshman and finished fifth on the list. He might have ended up higher (or at least been invited to New York) if he hadn't injured his ankle against Michigan, though the trophy still would have undoubtedly gone to Mariota. Maybe next year another youngster will win it? Or perhaps voters saw how things turned out after giving the award to Manziel and Winston and realized the Heisman is about more than just football stats and are now more reluctant to give it to underclassmen (not to say Barrett or another Freshman wouldn't have handled the success more gracefully).2014 Season record: 1 - 4
Overall record: 37 - 58
My guesses were right about 38% of the time this year, which isn't that bad considering they were bold predictions (emphasis on the bold). Still, I hope to do better next season.
Other headlines from the 2014 season:
Ohio State proves doubters wrong, looks ahead to 2015 season with high hopes amid quarterback quandary
This year, we learned to never underestimate the underdog. The Buckeyes made the mistake first, falling to Virginia Tech in week 2. Then, they got better. But they were still supposed to lose to Michigan State. They didn't. They made it to the Big Ten Championship but lost their Heisman-candidate quarterback for the second time - surely they wouldn't stand a chance against Wisconsin with a third string QB in his first career start. They won 59 - 0 and held Melvin Gordon to 76 yards. With the win, they catapulted into the final four, jumping TCU and barely edging out Baylor. But Alabama would blow them out and that would be the end of it. They beat Alabama. Except, they didn't just beat them. They did things to a Saban-coached Crimson Tide defense that had never been done before. Elliott had 230 rushing yards, a Sugar Bowl record and the most given up by Alabama since 2000. They dominated the line of scrimmage and looked faster and tougher than the SEC champs in a 42 - 35 win. Then came the championship against Oregon. There was no way they could keep up with Heisman winner Mariota and the high-flying Ducks' offense, right? But they did that and more, holding Oregon to only 20 points and putting up 42 points themselves, despite 4 turnovers. It was a statement win if there ever was one. After an impressive finish to the season, I think it's safe to say that the Ohio State defense has earned the nickname that I have been reluctant to call them since Tressel left. The Silver Bullets are back.
With the championship win, all eyes will be on Ohio State next season as they try to repeat. They will have the talent and experience to pull it off, with most of this year's starters primed to return. Most notably, all three of their Heisman-caliber quarterbacks might be back. So, the big question will be: who will be the starter if all three are back and healthy? Do they go with Braxton Miller, two-time Big Ten offensive player of the year? Miller has much more experience and is the most dynamic runner of the bunch, but there are legitimate concerns about his throwing ability, especially given the two injuries to his shoulder. Or do they start J.T. Barrett, the young leader who smashed record after record this season after taking over for Miller? Barrett has great accuracy and is skilled at reading defenses, but doesn't have the arm strength of Jones or the elusiveness of Miller. Lastly, there's Cardale Jones, the hero nobody outside of Columbus saw coming, who stepped in and won three championships in his first three starts. Jones has a cannon for an arm and can bulldoze defenders, but isn't quite as accurate as Barrett or as speedy as either of his colleagues. Honestly, I don't think there is a wrong choice here. Let's just say I will not envy the Ohio State coaching staff when it finally comes time to make a decision. No matter who they go with, the Buckeyes will be a force to be reckoned with in 2015.
Coaching changes in the Big Ten
There is always shuffling among the staffs of college football teams across the nation at the end of each season, and this year was no different. But no other conference seemed to have quite so many big changes as the Big Ten. Nebraska let head coach Bo Pelini go, after he failed to attain the level of success the Cornhuskers were after. This comes as a bit of a surprise at first glance, as Pelini consistently notched around 8 or 9 wins each season, but looking deeper, that was in itself part of the problem. He could never quite get that 11th or 12th win at Nebraska, and really struggled in big games against quality opponents. More surprising was Gary Anderson's departure from Wisconsin, as he took a job at Oregon State. That was a bit of a head-scratcher, but Wisconsin rebounded well with a solid hire of former offensive coordinator Paul Chryst. There were other moves among the top Big Ten teams, such as Ohio State OC Tom Herman leaving to take a head-coaching job at Houston, and Michigan State DC Pat Narduzzi taking the reins at Pittsburgh. But the move that made the biggest splash was Michigan's hire of Jim Harbaugh. There is no denying Harbaugh's resume, as he wins everywhere he goes. The bigger concern for the Wolverines should be his personality, as he has been known to rub people the wrong way and never seems to stay put at one place for very long. Regardless, things should be interesting in the Big Ten next year, with all the new faces.Nick Saban in a Luigi hat
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