College Football 2014 Season Recap

1. The SEC will get two teams into the inaugural College Football Playoffs, but neither team will win the championship

I was right that an SEC team would not win the championship this year, but Alabama was the conference's only team in the playoffs.  Mississippi State was the other SEC team with a shot at the final four, until they lost to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl.  I still think Ohio State would have gotten the fourth seed even if the Bulldogs won that game, because of the Buckeyes' complete domination of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship.  And looking at postseason results, it clearly would have been the right call.  After going through a season with the new system, it appears that it may be harder than anticipated for a single conference to earn two playoff berths, especially with the SEC's decline and the weight given to league championships.

2. Florida State misses the playoffs and Jameis Winston does not repeat as Heisman winner

Another one that I got half right.  Winston finished way down at sixth in Heisman voting after having a significantly worse season than last year, statistically speaking.  But in terms of record, they were right where I didn't think they would be at the end of the year: 13 - 0 and in the playoffs.  It wasn't until they faced Oregon in the Rose Bowl did they finally lose, but boy was it ugly.

3. By the end of the season, at least three fan-bases will be calling for the heads of the members of the newly established college football playoff selection committee

Baylor coach Art Briles is still talking about missing the playoffs (despite losing to Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl).  The folks in Fort Worth?  They're likely still lamenting TCU's drop from 3 to 6 in the committee's final rankings.  And 11th ranked Kansas State probably wasn't thrilled about playing in the Alamo Bowl while 12th ranked Georgia Tech and 20th ranked Boise State played in the Orange and Fiesta Bowls, respectively (though technically, the committee was obligated to send those two teams to New Year's Six bowls).  Basically every Big 12 fan was unhappy with the playoff committee.  Florida State fans were grumpy too after being dropped in the rankings throughout the season despite winning week after week (though they didn't have much to complain about after getting thumped by Oregon).  So I'd say this prediction was accurate.

4. Ball State goes undefeated, but their weak schedule keeps them out of the playoffs

I was way off on this one.  I have to wonder if their season would have been different had they pulled off the upset over Iowa in week 2.  But the Cardinals let a 10 point lead slip away in the last 3 minutes of the game and it was all downhill after that.  Ball State finished 5 - 7, not even bowl eligible.  In hindsight, Marshall would have been the team to peg to go undefeated and miss the playoffs this year, but even they ended up with one loss before all was said and done.

5. For the the third straight year, a Freshman wins the Heisman

The three Heisman finalists were all Juniors, including Heisman winner Marcus Mariota.  J.T. Barrett received the most votes of any Freshman and finished fifth on the list.  He might have ended up higher (or at least been invited to New York) if he hadn't injured his ankle against Michigan, though the trophy still would have undoubtedly gone to Mariota.  Maybe next year another youngster will win it?  Or perhaps voters saw how things turned out after giving the award to Manziel and Winston and realized the Heisman is about more than just football stats and are now more reluctant to give it to underclassmen (not to say Barrett or another Freshman wouldn't have handled the success more gracefully).

2014 Season record: 1 - 4
Overall record: 37 - 58

My guesses were right about 38% of the time this year, which isn't that bad considering they were bold predictions (emphasis on the bold).  Still, I hope to do better next season.

Other headlines from the 2014 season:

Ohio State proves doubters wrong, looks ahead to 2015 season with high hopes amid quarterback quandary

This year, we learned to never underestimate the underdog.  The Buckeyes made the mistake first, falling to Virginia Tech in week 2.  Then, they got better.  But they were still supposed to lose to Michigan State.  They didn't.  They made it to the Big Ten Championship but lost their Heisman-candidate quarterback for the second time - surely they wouldn't stand a chance against Wisconsin with a third string QB in his first career start.  They won 59 - 0 and held Melvin Gordon to 76 yards.  With the win, they catapulted into the final four, jumping TCU and barely edging out Baylor.  But Alabama would blow them out and that would be the end of it.  They beat Alabama.  Except, they didn't just beat them.  They did things to a Saban-coached Crimson Tide defense that had never been done before.  Elliott had 230 rushing yards, a Sugar Bowl record and the most given up by Alabama since 2000.  They dominated the line of scrimmage and looked faster and tougher than the SEC champs in a 42 - 35 win.  Then came the championship against Oregon.  There was no way they could keep up with Heisman winner Mariota and the high-flying Ducks' offense, right?  But they did that and more, holding Oregon to only 20 points and putting up 42 points themselves, despite 4 turnovers.  It was a statement win if there ever was one.  After an impressive finish to the season, I think it's safe to say that the Ohio State defense has earned the nickname that I have been reluctant to call them since Tressel left.  The Silver Bullets are back.

With the championship win, all eyes will be on Ohio State next season as they try to repeat.  They will have the talent and experience to pull it off, with most of this year's starters primed to return.  Most notably, all three of their Heisman-caliber quarterbacks might be back.  So, the big question will be: who will be the starter if all three are back and healthy?  Do they go with Braxton Miller, two-time Big Ten offensive player of the year?  Miller has much more experience and is the most dynamic runner of the bunch, but there are legitimate concerns about his throwing ability, especially given the two injuries to his shoulder.  Or do they start J.T. Barrett, the young leader who smashed record after record this season after taking over for Miller?  Barrett has great accuracy and is skilled at reading defenses, but doesn't have the arm strength of Jones or the elusiveness of Miller.  Lastly, there's Cardale Jones, the hero nobody outside of Columbus saw coming, who stepped in and won three championships in his first three starts.  Jones has a cannon for an arm and can bulldoze defenders, but isn't quite as accurate as Barrett or as speedy as either of his colleagues.  Honestly, I don't think there is a wrong choice here.  Let's just say I will not envy the Ohio State coaching staff when it finally comes time to make a decision.  No matter who they go with, the Buckeyes will be a force to be reckoned with in 2015.

Coaching changes in the Big Ten

There is always shuffling among the staffs of college football teams across the nation at the end of each season, and this year was no different.  But no other conference seemed to have quite so many big changes as the Big Ten.  Nebraska let head coach Bo Pelini go, after he failed to attain the level of success the Cornhuskers were after.  This comes as a bit of a surprise at first glance, as Pelini consistently notched around 8 or 9 wins each season, but looking deeper, that was in itself part of the problem.  He could never quite get that 11th or 12th win at Nebraska, and really struggled in big games against quality opponents.  More surprising was Gary Anderson's departure from Wisconsin, as he took a job at Oregon State.  That was a bit of a head-scratcher, but Wisconsin rebounded well with a solid hire of former offensive coordinator Paul Chryst.  There were other moves among the top Big Ten teams, such as Ohio State OC Tom Herman leaving to take a head-coaching job at Houston, and Michigan State DC Pat Narduzzi taking the reins at Pittsburgh.  But the move that made the biggest splash was Michigan's hire of Jim Harbaugh.  There is no denying Harbaugh's resume, as he wins everywhere he goes.  The bigger concern for the Wolverines should be his personality, as he has been known to rub people the wrong way and never seems to stay put at one place for very long.  Regardless, things should be interesting in the Big Ten next year, with all the new faces.

Nick Saban in a Luigi hat

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College Football National Championship Recap

1. Ohio State defeats Oregon, takes home 8th national title

The Buckeyes did exactly what they couldn't do against Oregon, turning the ball over 4 times.  And yet, they still beat the Ducks and did it in impressive fashion.  The defense really stepped up, especially in the red zone - something they had struggled with all year, and that kept the -3 turnover margin (-4 until the last play of the game) from hurting Ohio State too much.  The Buckeyes won the game in the trenches, with strong play on both the offensive and defensive lines, and just seemed too physical for Oregon.  Ohio State's 42 - 20 victory capped what was arguably the best postseason performance by any team in college football history.  The Buckeyes beat #13, #1, and #2 by a combined score of 143 - 55.  Of course, with conference championships still being relatively new and playoffs being brand new, this kind of postseason was not really even possible until this year.  Still, you can't deny how impressive Ohio State looked in these three games.

2. Ezekiel Elliott eclipses 200 rushing yards for third straight game

He did it again.  Elliott not only topped 200 rushing yards, he set a new career high.  With 246 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Ducks, it means that in the three game stretch against Wisconsin, Alabama, and Oregon, the sophomore running back had 696 yards on 76 carries (an insane 9.1 yards-per-carry) and 8 touchdowns.  Cardale Jones was the unlikely hero who stepped in at the toughest part of the season and surprised everyone, but Elliott was the one who carried this team on his back when they needed it most.  Of course, the success of both wouldn't have been possible without the offensive line's outstanding play, as they showed incredible improvement over the course of the season, and ended up being one of the best units in the nation.

3. One or both teams score 21 or more unanswered points

Ohio State had two such runs, as they answered Oregon's opening touchdown drive with 21 straight points.  The Ducks rallied back to make it a one point game, but the Buckeyes finished with another 21 unanswered points.

4. Ducks and Bucks combine for 90+ points in shootout

Both offenses seemed like they could move the ball fairly well early on, but were stopping themselves - Ohio State with turnovers and Oregon with dropped passes.  Eventually, though, Ohio State's offense got going while Oregon's continued to sputter.  Buckeyes scored 42 but Oregon's season-low 20 points (which was less than half their per-game average) made this prediction a bust.

5.  The color (or lack thereof) of Oregon's uniforms is mentioned twice or more during the broadcast

There actually wasn't much said about Oregon's uniforms, despite the fact that they lacked any of the school's colors.


National Championship record: 3 - 2

Overall record: 36 - 54

Other headlines from the National Championship:

This catch

Urban Meyer promises tattoo

The Ohio State head coach provided a little extra incentive to the Buckeyes by promising to get a tattoo if they beat the Ducks in the championship.  With the win, the only question now is what and where.  A Block O sounds like a strong possibility.

How many championships is it now?

You know you're a successful head coach when your wife forgets how many national championships you've won.  Also, please take note of cornerbacks coach Kerry Coombs in the top left, who looks like how every Ohio State fan felt Monday night.  You may also remember Coombs as the guy who wore a short sleeve shirt to the Minnesota game.

College Football National Championship Bold Predictions

1. Ohio State defeats Oregon, takes home 8th national title

The Buckeyes are underdogs again, but that won't faze this young Ohio State squad who have won their three biggest games of the season as underdogs (including their last two).  Defensively the key will be containing Heisman trophy winner Marcus Mariota, who can really hurt defenses by scrambling when plays break down.  I am confident that Ohio State will be able to move the ball on the Ducks - the key there will be protecting the football.   Oregon's defense is mediocre, statistically speaking, but beats teams with turnovers.  The Ducks are only ranked 84th in yardage allowed but 20th in points allowed, the result of a +20 turnover margin, second best in the country.  As long as the Buckeyes limit the mistakes, particularly turnovers, I think they win this game.  Ohio State's defense comes up with one more stop than Oregon to win 49 - 42.

2. Ezekiel Elliott eclipses 200 rushing yards for third straight game

Elliott picked the right time to hit his stride, as he became the first Ohio State running back to rush for over 200 yards in consecutive games.  While that's surprising, the more impressive part is who he did it against.  Wisconsin and Alabama are two top-tier defenses, particularly when it comes to stopping the run, but the offensive line opened up big holes for the speedy running back.  It may be tough for him to repeat, but given the fact that Oregon is 51st in the country at stopping the run, I think he can do it.

3. One or both teams score 21 or more unanswered points

Both teams showed they can score quickly and in bunches.  In the Rose Bowl, Oregon ended the game with 34 straight points.  Against Alabama, Ohio State went on a 28 - 0 run through the second and third quarters to take a lead they would never surrender.  I think one of these teams goes off at some point, which may end up making the difference in the game.

4. Ducks and Bucks combine for 90+ points in shootout

Speaking of scoring lots of points... This one could very well be a shootout.  Oregon put up 59 on Florida State and Ohio State scored 42 on Alabama.  Look for more fireworks in this one.

5.  The color (or lack thereof) of Oregon's uniforms is mentioned twice or more during the broadcast

Yeah, we noticed, the Oregon jerseys look mostly normal.  I'm sure the commentators will want to remind us of that a few times.

College Football Playoff Semifinals Recap

1. Florida State beats Oregon in the Rose Bowl

The Seminole's defense kept it close in the first half, as they trailed by only five points going into the locker room.  But a disastrous second half that included 5 turnovers doomed Florida State.  Oregon capitalized on the mistakes with touchdown after touchdown, demoralizing the Seminoles in a 59 - 20 blowout.

2. Jameis Winston throws no more than one interception

Florida State did exactly what they needed to in the first half, as they played without giving the ball away.  But even though Winston only ended up throwing one interception, the offense as a whole fell into a pattern in the second half that killed them, by fumbling away their championship dreams.

3. Ohio State takes down Alabama, wins Sugar Bowl

The Buckeyes, on the other hand, were able to pull off the upset over SEC powerhouse Alabama.  They contained Cooper, limiting him to only 71 receiving yards - well below his per-game average of 127 yards (though he did score two touchdowns).  And they tackled well, the other key focus I mentioned for Ohio State's defense.  But in general, they didn't just win.  They dominated Alabama in nearly every category.  They were faster, stronger, and tougher.  Alabama was outplayed and out-coached.  If not for an incredible job by the Crimson Tide punter, JK Scott, who averaged 55 yards per punt (including a 73-yarder) and dropped 5 punts inside the 20, it may have been a blowout.

4. Cardale Jones passes for 250+ yards against the Crimson Tide defense

I just barely missed this one, as Jones threw for 243 yards.  He likely would've easily passed the 250 mark, had it not been for mostly conservative play-calling in the second half as Ohio State protected their lead and had repeatedly poor starting field position.  But, overall, it was another great game for Jones in just his second career start.  He was unfazed after throwing an interception early and falling behind 21 - 6.  Strong performances by the offensive line and wide receiver corps was key to his success, as anticipated.  Can he keep the offense rolling against Oregon in the championship game?  We'll see.

5. Playoff teams get tricky three or more times

The only trick play of the semifinals came at the end of the first half of the Sugar Bowl, as Ohio State tried to make it a one point game before going into the locker room.  They did just that, on a perfectly executed 13-yard WR-to-WR touchdown pass.  Watch here, or below.


Playoff Semifinals record: 2 - 3
Overall record: 33 - 52

Other headlines from the playoff semifinals:

This play from the Rose Bowl

This play from the Sugar Bowl

Semifinal results show how wrong BCS would have gotten it

Imagine this: we still live in the BCS era, where #1 and #2 are picked based on computer rankings and human voters, they play each other and we crown the winner national champion.  This year, it would have likely been Alabama vs Florida State.  The two teams that didn't make it to the championship, would've played for it.  Based on Florida State's implosion against Oregon, we can assume Alabama wins that game, and the idea of SEC dominance continues with another championship for the boys down south.  Meanwhile, we'd have Ohio State and Oregon, the nation's actual two best teams, in BCS bowls, possibly even playing each other in the Rose Bowl, with the winner getting nothing more than a pat on the back and a higher ranking going into next season.  Let's play a dangerous game of what-if, and ask: how often do we think the BCS has gotten it right?  Who's to say Michigan State doesn't win a playoff last year?  How about Oregon the previous year?  TCU or Stanford in 2010/11?  I can keep going back and continue to find teams that finished the season ranked highly and won a BCS bowl that may have shaken things up in a playoff.  The SEC's string of championships?  Most likely gone.  This is a new era, where teams have to earn the chance to play for a title.  Now the next question, obviously, is whether a four team playoff is enough.  Who's to say TCU wouldn't have made some noise in this year's playoff?  I will leave that question unanswered, for now, and revisit it in the off-season.

College Football Bowl Season Recap

1. Four or more Group of 5 teams take down Power 5 opponents

Group of 5 teams notched only three victories against Power 5 opponents during bowl season, coming up just short for this prediction.  Louisiana Tech, Boise State, and Houston won, but Colorado State, UCF, Cincinnati, and East Carolina all faltered.

2. Boise State notches another Fiesta Bowl victory

The Broncos pulled out another Fiesta win, and now hold a 3 - 0 record in the Glendale, Arizona bowl game.  They even brought back the Statue of Liberty play that helped them beat Oklahoma in this same bowl almost a decade ago.  The trickery helped them jump out to a 21 - 0 lead early.  Arizona would rally back, but ultimately Boise State triumphed, 38 - 30.

3. Ole Miss stifles TCU in Peach Bowl win

It was the Horned Frogs' defense on display in Atlanta, as they completely shut down the Rebels.  Ole Miss was held to only 3 points, 129 yards of offense (including only 9 rushing yards), and committed four turnovers.  The victory for TCU fuels their playoff argument, and rightfully so.  But after the Big 12 finished 2 - 5 in bowl games and Ohio State knocked off top-ranked Alabama, there is probably a stronger argument for playoff expansion, rather than TCU's inclusion in this year's playoff (because, who would they have replaced?).  At the very least, the 42 - 3 blowout win provides some momentum for the Horned Frogs heading into next year.

4. Melvin Gordon claims number two spot on single-season rushing list

Gordon bounced back nicely after being contained by Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.  The Wisconsin running back ran all over Auburn, setting a new Outback Bowl record of 251 rushing yards.  The performance brought him to 2,587 for the season, passing Kevin Smith for number two on the list.  The total is also only 41 yards shy of Barry Sanders' 1988 record.  Wow.  It will be fun to see what this kid can do in the NFL.

5. Baylor beats Michigan State by double-digits

This one looked like a lock as the Bears entered the fourth quarter of the Cotton Bowl with a 20 point lead.  But the Spartans mounted a furious comeback to not only ruin this prediction, but win the football game, 42 - 41.  The victory was huge for the Big Ten, and helped justify the playoff committee's selections.

Bowl season record: 2 - 3
Overall record: 31 - 49

Other headlines from bowl season:

Comebacks!

I already mentioned Michigan State's comeback, but it wasn't the only B1G comeback, as Ohio State fell behind 21- 6 early against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl before fighting back to win 42 - 35.  A day later, Houston rallied to beat Pitt in the Armed Forces Bowl after trailing 31 - 6 in the fourth quarter.  The comeback included 3 touchdowns in the last 3:41 of the game and was the biggest fourth quarter comeback in bowl history.  Kansas State tried to duplicate the effort later that day after falling behind by the same score to UCLA at halftime of the Alamo Bowl, but came up short.  The craziest may have been Central Michigan's comeback attempt, though, as they entered the fourth quarter of the Bahama's Bowl down 49 - 14 against Western Kentucky but clawed their way back by scoring five touchdowns in the final 11:37 of play.  A wild Hail Mary brought the Chippewas within one point, but a failed two-point conversion gave the Hilltoppers the win.

SEC West the strongest division in college football? Not so much...

In recent years we've heard how good the SEC West was.  And this year was more of the same, as the division dominated headlines all season.  But a 2 - 5 showing in bowl games exposed the group, and the SEC as a whole, as vastly overrated.  The East did post a perfect 5 - 0 record, but faced widely weaker opponents in smaller bowls.  Only two of seven ranked SEC teams won their bowl games, and the best win for any SEC team was Georgia's victory over 21st ranked Louisville.  The conference was 0 - 3 in New Year's Six bowls and will be shut out of the national championship game for the first time since the 2005 season as a result of the new playoff system.

Pac-12 shines, Big Ten surprises

The Pac-12 had arguably the best bowl season of any conference, with a 6 - 2 record.  Oregon destroyed Florida State to earn a spot in the championship game.  Arizona was the only one of six ranked Pac-12 teams to lose, as they fell to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.  The other big winner was the Big Ten, who entered bowl season as underdogs in all 10 of their bowl match-ups, but ended up going 5 - 5.  The top three teams all posted victories over teams ranked 1st, 5th, and 19th, with Minnesota as the only ranked team to go down, losing to SEC East champ Missouri.  The league, which had taken heat earlier in the year for poor out-of-conference showings, posted a 2 - 0 record in New Year's Six bowls, with Ohio State earning a spot in the championship.  It's also worth mentioning that the Big 12's pitiful 2 - 5 bowl record showed that the playoff committee probably was right in leaving co-champs Baylor and TCU out of the playoffs.

College Football Playoff Semifinals Bold Predictions

1. Florida State beats Oregon in the Rose Bowl

For the first time this season, the Seminoles enter a football game as underdogs.  The Ducks are coming in averaging 46 points per game, and Florida State's defense has been inconsistent this year.  But I think the Seminoles' defense steps up in this one.  If they can defend the edges of the field and keep the speedy Oregon play-makers in front of them they will have a shot at slowing down the up-tempo offense led by Heisman winner Marcus Mariota.  They haven't lost yet, and I don't think they lose in Pasadena.  Florida State wins, 41 - 38.

2. Jameis Winston throws no more than one interception

The other half of the equation is Jameis Winston, last year's Heisman winner.  He's brought a sort of Jekyll and Hyde component to the Seminoles' offense this year, often struggling early and giving opponents an early lead by turning the ball over but then leading his team to rally back in the second half.  He can't afford to do that against a talented Oregon team that will run away with the game if given the opportunity.  But Heisman voting is done, taking a bit of pressure off of Winston.  I think he comes in more relaxed and doesn't try to do too much (which was possibly part of the problem in other games this year).  If he can limit the turnovers, I think Florida State will have a shot.

3. Ohio State takes down Alabama, wins Sugar Bowl

Not too many people are giving the Buckeyes a chance in this one, but I think it will be much closer than anticipated.  A lot of the focus leading up to this game is on Amari Cooper, who will test the Buckeyes' secondary.  But the real battle might be won or lost in the trenches.  If the Ohio State defensive line can keep pressure on Blake Sims and not let him get comfortable, it will go a long way in slowing down Alabama's offense.  The other important focus for the Buckeye defense should be tackling fundamentals.  Tackling has been good at times this year, but bad at other times.  If the defense swarms to the ball, and brings down the ball carrier on first contact (creating negative plays and limiting yards after catch), like they did against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, they will be able to keep the game close.  Ohio State gets it done, 35 - 33.

4. Cardale Jones passes for 250+ yards against the Crimson Tide defense

Jones threw for 257 yards against a pretty good Wisconsin defense in his first career start, but the Alabama defense is in an entirely different category.  And while all eyes will be on Jones in his second start, his success and the success of the offense as a whole is probably more contingent on how the players around him perform.  The offensive line needs to give him time to throw and receivers have to be aggressive and go up and get the ball even when it's not thrown quite on target.  If these two groups have another strong game, Jones will be setup to do well, giving the Buckeyes a decent shot to win.

5. Playoff teams get tricky three or more times

With a shot at a national championship on the line, coaches will be emptying their playbooks.  I won't be surprised to see fake punts, fake field goals, non-quarterbacks throwing the ball, or even an unexpected on-side kick.  Whether these trick plays prove to be successful or not may be another story.  Either way, these two games should be epic.