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Friday, October 21, 2016

College Football Three and Out: Week 8

First and 10: Recapping week 6



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Tennessee knocks off Bama

No dice here, as Alabama demolished the Vols, 49 - 10.  Will anyone in the SEC be able to challenge the Tide?

B1G Bold Prediction: Hoosiers deal Huskers first loss

Indiana fought back valiantly, but a 10-point 4th quarter for Nebraska stymied the Hoosiers.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Bucks tally 200+ yards on the ground vs stiff Wiscy defense

Ohio State found more success on the ground vs the Badgers than anyone else had this year, but still fell just short of the 200 yard mark.  But the bigger concern for the Buckeyes was the passing game, particularly in the first half, as Wisconsin took a 10-point lead into the locker room.  But OSU made the necessary halftime adjustments, and rallied back to eventually force overtime.  Behind a gutsy performance by Barrett and a strong defensive effort down the stretch, the Buckeyes came out of Mad-town with the win.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Missouri beats Florida

At first, this looked like it was going to be another low-scoring match, and it probably would have been if not for three defensive / special-teams touchdowns for the Gators.  Who knows what would have happened otherwise.  With the win, Florida keeps their SEC East aspirations alive.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Either Illinois or Rutgers notch a conference win

Illinois managed to get their first conference victory, as they beat Rutgers 24 - 7.  The Scarlet Knights, on the other hand, were not so lucky, as they lost to the Illini, 24 - 7.

Week 7 record: 1 - 4

2016 record: 15 - 20


Second and 5: Predicting the future!



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Aggies rack up over 500 yards on Tide

I'm not sure if Texas A&M will be able to pull off the upset (actually, I'm pretty sure they won't), but I do think they'll be able to move the ball on Alabama, especially through the air.  On average, Saban's squad is only giving up 274 yards per game, good for 5th in the country.  But they've had moments of porousness, particularly in games against Ole Miss and Arkansas.  A&M comes up just short in a high-scoring match, while the Crimson Tide survives, 52 - 48.

B1G Bold Prediction: Iowa tops Wisconsin in B1G West clash

The Badgers lost an emotional battle in overtime with the Buckeyes, in their third straight match-up against a top-10 opponent (though it's hard to believe that Michigan State was once ranked that high).  Iowa was looking like they were headed for a disaster of a season early on, but have since righted the ship, at least for now.  This is a must-win game for both of these programs, trying to stay alive in the hunt for a division title.  Wisconsin is the better team, but they are worn out, and I think the Hawkeyes get the better of them in Iowa City, 30 - 25.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Silver Bullets hold Saquon Barkley under 100 yards

The Bucks were gashed on the ground by Corey Clement last week, and won't have any time off before facing another talented running back in PSU's Saquon Barkley.  Barkley hurt the Buckeyes last year, racking up 194 rushing yards in a losing effort in Columbus.  I think Ohio State builds on a strong second half at Wisconsin last week and zones in on the Penn State running back.  OSU wins, 35 - 13, shutting down #26 in the process.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Horned Frogs spoil Mountaineers' perfect record

This is West Virginia's first real test. and I expect them to fail it.  Of course, it will probably be a shootout, and to be honest anything can happen in that kind of game.  But no matter what happens here, I just can't see the Mountaineers finishing with any less than two or three losses this year.  But if I had to guess, I'd say TCU wins this one, 56 - 49.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Rice wins a football game

The Owls are the last remaining win-less team in FBS, and they finally face a team on their level.  Prairie View A&M comes to town, and Rice should maybe probably win?  This still might be my boldest not-so-bold bold prediction to date.


Third and 3: Checking in on my preseason bold predictions



I made some bold predictions for 2016 back in early September.  Let's see how they're looking at the halfway point of the regular season.

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Alabama misses the playoff

Status: Yellow

Right now, Alabama is undefeated and firmly in the top spot of the AP poll.  They've looked dominant, but obviously college football is unpredictable and a given team's outlook can change in an instant.

B1G Bold Prediction: Michigan Regresses

Status: Orange

The Wolverines lost 3 games in 2015, and like Alabama, are still undefeated.  So for this prediction to materialize, they'd need to not only lose to OSU and whomever they face in the postseason, but drop two others that they really should win.  It's still technically possible, but seems unlikely.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU has a quarterback and running back both eclipse 1000 yards

Status: Green

This prediction is very much alive, as there are actually 3 Buckeyes who could be in reach of 1000 rushing yards by the end of the year.  Weber should easily hit that mark, and Samuel is on pace for 900.  Barrett is also on pace for around 900.  But if he's used as heavily in the run game in conference games down the stretch as he was the last two weeks against Wisconsin and Indiana, then 1000 yards is definitely possible.  It may not be ideal to run the QB that much, but you do what you gotta do to win.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Group of Five team makes the playoff

Status: Orange

Houston looked like a real contender after taking down Oklahoma in week 1, then the Navy game happened.  The Cougars are still ranked fairly high, but would definitely need help to make the final four (not to mention, they still have to play Louisville).  Same goes for Boise State, even if they go undefeated.  The Broncos simply don't have a tough enough schedule to justify a playoff spot, unless we end up with multiple 2-loss Power 5 champs.  Western Michigan is the third team that could also sneak in, if real chaos breaks out.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: People disagree with CFP Committee's top 4

Status: Green

It's obviously too early to know this for sure, but I don't see any reason why people won't be displeased no matter who the committee picks.


Fourth down: Hand it off to Weber.

Saturday, October 15, 2016

College Football Three and Out: Week 7

First and 1: Recapping week 6



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Oregon stuns Washington

Nope.

B1G Bold Prediction: Maryland defeats Penn State by two or more scores

Nope.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU takes 3+ touchdown lead into halftime against Indiana

Nope.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Alabama falls to Arkansas

Nope.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Michigan learns how to "line up" properly

Yeah, I guess so.

Week 6 record: 1 - 4
2016 record: 14 - 16


Second and 3: Predicting the future!



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Tennessee knocks off Bama

 The Vols' magic ran out last week in another crazy finish, this time against Texas A&M.  They rebound this weekend by taking down the number one team, 35 - 33.

B1G Bold Prediction: Hoosiers deal Huskers first loss

Nebraska's win against Oregon has looked less and less impressive as the season has gone on, and so despite being undefeated, the Cornhuskers really appear very vulnerable.  If Indiana plays with the same intensity and focus that they have the past couple weeks against Michigan State and Ohio State, they will come out on top at home.  Hoosiers by 3.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Bucks tally 200+ yards on the ground vs stiff Wiscy defense

The Badgers are ranked fourth nationally in run defense, while the Buckeyes feature the country's third best rushing attack, so you know something's got to give.  Wisconsin hasn't allowed more than 130 yards on the ground in a game, but that changes on Saturday.  Ohio State needs to be more balanced than they were against Indiana, but if they find a groove in the passing game, look out.  The Badgers haven't faced athletes like this, and the speed on the edges kills them, as OSU runs over Wisconsin, winning 31 - 14.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Missouri beats Florida

Florida is inept on offense once again, so anything is possible.  I mean, they narrowly beat Vanderbilt, 13 - 6.  The Tigers capitalize on a late Gator turnover to win a low-scoring affair.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Either Illinois or Rutgers notch a conference win

Both of these teams are win-less in Big Ten play but look to change that this weekend.  They haven't looked good, but you could argue that their respective opponents have looked even worse. I think one of them gets a victory on Saturday.


Third and 7: New Pac-12 North contenders emerge



Oregon and Stanford have owned the Pac-12 in recent years, as either the Ducks or Cardinal have claimed the conference title in each of the past 7 years. And their dominance in the north division has been even more evident. But this year looks different. Washington and Washington State are the only teams left in the Pac-12 North without a conference loss, and both teams delivered beatdowns to the former top dogs of the league the past two weeks. It looks like one of the teams from the Evergreen state will win the division and quite possibly the conference title. The regular season finale that pits these rivals against one another looms large.


Fourth down: Send out Johnston. This is gonna be a battle.

Friday, October 7, 2016

College Football Three and Out: Week 6

First and 13: Recapping week 5



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Louisville beats Clemson by double digits

 It was actually Louisville in danger of losing by double digits, as the Tigers built up an 18-point lead by halftime.  It was a sloppy game (at one point there were three turnovers in three plays), but the final outcome was a victory for Clemson.  The bigger picture is that Jackson and Watson are both still in the mix for the Heisman, and their teams are both definitely in the playoff picture, though Clemson is certainly in the driver's seat in the ACC race.

B1G Bold Prediction: Indiana upsets Michigan State

I almost went with Northwestern to upset Iowa, and was disappointed when I saw the Wildcats get it done against the Hawkeyes.  But it seems there is room for two big under-achievers in the Big Ten, as the Spartans picked up their second loss of the season as well.  Now both these programs look like they'll be on the outside looking in for the B1G race this year.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Weber rushes for 200+ yards

He had a career rushing day with 144 yards, but a huge OSU lead ruined this prediction since he was done playing by partway through the third quarter.  Demario McCall got to flash his talent in Weber's place, adding another 85 yards on the ground.  Between Weber, Samuel, Barrett, and a mix of other talented young guys, the Buckeyes are obliterating opponents with one of the top rushing attacks in the country.  They should be able to keep it going next week against Indiana, but will face a tough challenge when they travel to Madison to face Wisconsin, who boasts one of the top run defenses.

Why-not Bold Prediction: TCU gives Sooners third loss

It was a back-and-forth game, in which the teams took turns deciding to play defense. Oklahoma played defense just a little bit more than the Horned Frogs, and notched their first respectable win of the season. They take on rival Texas this week, but then will have a stretch of very winnable games before closing the season against Baylor, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: FIU scores three or more points

They literally exceeded my expectations 10-fold, as they managed to score 33 points and beat FAU.  Wow.

Week 5 record: 2 - 3
2016 record: 13 - 12


Second and 12: Predicting the future!



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Oregon stuns Washington

 The Ducks have won 12 straight in this series, but for the first time in that span the Huskies look like  the better team.  Old habits die hard, however.  Oregon 36, Washington 28.

B1G Bold Prediction: Maryland defeats Penn State by two or more scores

This will be the 40th meeting between these two teams.  The Terps have beaten PSU twice.  But one of those wins was a 1-point victory just two years ago.  The Nittany Lions won last year, also by a point.  I think Maryland notches their biggest win of the series, as Penn State has just looked awful this season.  Terrapins by 12.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU takes 3+ touchdown lead into halftime against Indiana

Although the Buckeyes come in riding a 20-game win-streak against the Hoosiers, four of the last five contests have been decided in the fourth quarter, with last year's coming down to the final play.  And this edition of the Hoosiers might be the best of the group, seeing how they out-kicked (and out-scored) Michigan State last week in overtime.  But the talent level and hunger of these Buckeyes gives them an edge that lets them put this one away early.  Ohio State builds up a big first half lead and never looks back, winning 49 - 12.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Alabama falls to Arkansas

Why not?  The last two meetings between these schools have been close ones, and it seems about the right time of the season for Saban's squad to have their annual inexplicable loss.  Bert walks away victorious, 24 - 20.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Michigan learns how to "line up" properly



No, no, no.  That's not how you do football.


Third and 5: Wild finishes highlight crazy college football weekend



Iowa State led Baylor by 14 with less than 12 minutes left.

Utah had a first and goal on the 2 yard line with 7 seconds left in their game vs Cal.

Indiana missed a FG in overtime against Michigan State.

Florida State scored the go-ahead touchdown against UNC with just 23 seconds remaining.

Georgia took the lead against Tennessee on a miraculous Hail Mary with only 10 seconds left on the clock.

Only 1 of the 5 teams mentioned above won... the rest all lost.  Indiana got a second try on a game-winning field goal after Michigan State's kicker had already missed theirs.  A leaping penalty ended up giving them that opportunity, and they capitalized.

Iowa state gave up 17 points in 11:40 to lose.

Utah was stuffed on the goal line as time expired.

The Seminoles let North Carolina quickly advance up field and kick a walk-off 54-yard field goal to win it, all in 23 seconds.

Georgia only had to stop one play, from about mid field, after scoring from close to the same place.  They failed to stop Tennessee from doing the exact same thing, as the Vols scored on a 43-yard Hail Mary of their own.

Ya gotta love college football.

Friday, September 30, 2016

College Football Three and Out: Week 5

First and 11: Recapping week 4



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Stanford falls to UCLA

The Bruins had 'em on the ropes, and then the Cardinal scored twice in the last 24 seconds.  The second didn't matter (except to those in Vegas), but it really shows how bad the late collapse was by UCLA.  Stanford survived again, 22 - 13.  I still stand by what I said earlier: they will lose eventually.  Maybe it will happen tonight against Washington?

B1G Bold Prediction: Badgers take down Spartans in East Lansing

Well, Clement played, but with how well Wisconsin's defense performed they probably didn't even need him.  Michigan State struggled to do much of anything on offense as they suffered their first loss of the season, 30 - 6.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: I come face-to-face with former OSU players

Beanie Wells, Bobby Carpenter, and Anthony Schlegel came to my work on Friday. They talked about their experiences at OSU and beyond, did Q&A, and signed autographs. OK, so I may have known about this ahead of time...





Why-not Bold Prediction: Clemson stumbles at Georgia Tech

The Tigers' defense was too good for the Yellow Jackets to have a legitimate chance in this one.  But unless their offense can start producing more consistently, Clemson may be in trouble.  And they don't have much time to get their act together - Louisville comes to town this Saturday. 

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Louisville's Lamar Jackson lights up scoreboard... again

Speaking of Louisville... Jackson did it again: 479 yards.  7 touchdowns.  Not bad.  Not bad at all.


Week 3 record: 3 - 2
2016 record: 11 - 9


Second and 3: Predicting the future!



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Louisville beats Clemson by double digits

 I'm sure the Cardinals are still embracing the underdog mindset, despite being slight favorites against the reigning ACC champs.  And with the talent they have, that's a dangerous thing.  I think they win again, and win big.  What will be a greater challenge (ironically) is when they face some of the lesser teams in the conference, and the blowout is expected.  But on Saturday they will roll to a 30 - 17 victory.

B1G Bold Prediction: Indiana upsets Michigan State

The Hoosiers are just good enough on offense that they might have a shot to give the Spartans their second loss, by a margin of 3 points.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Weber rushes for 200+ yards

The red-shirt freshman has been impressive so far, but with an offense loaded with play-makers, he hasn't gotten the attention that he might have otherwise.  He's been very close to breaking a long run on multiple occasions.  I think this is the week he really breaks loose, as Ohio State cruises to a 52 - 13 win.

Why-not Bold Prediction: TCU gives Sooners third loss

We'll learn a lot about the leadership of this Oklahoma team in the coming weeks.  After dropping games to Houston and Ohio State, they are all but eliminated from playoff contention.  But they still have the talent to compete for a Big 12 title, if they can forget about the postseason and just play football.  But that's easier said than done.  I think the wheels come off the wagon with a loss in Fort Worth, and it just gets worse from there.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: FIU scores three or more points

Florida International is bad at scoring points.


Third and Miles: LSU says goodbye



The biggest news in college football this week was Les Miles getting the boot.  I can't say I'm surprised, but I also can't help but think that LSU will end up regretting this decision.  It's hard to look at a 114 - 34 record and justify firing the guy at the helm.  Not to mention, he won a BCS title and competed for another.  I think in the end it was his and his staff's inability to develop the talent he recruited, particularly at quarterback, that cost him the job.  With the talent on his roster, the Tigers should have been vying for SEC and national titles on a regular basis.  I guess my biggest problem with the firing wasn't that they let him go, but the timing of it.  I just don't see the benefit of cutting the cord partway through the season.  I get that a 2-2 record to start the year isn't very impressive, but the chances of finding a good replacement now is very low.  Like I said, I can't blame LSU fans for demanding better, but to be honest I doubt they'll get it any time soon.  The next few years could be rough for the Tigers.


Fourth down: It's time for Big Ten football.  Run it down their throats.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

College Football Three and Out: Week 4

First and 2: Recapping week 3




Top-10 Bold Prediction: USC takes down Stanford

 The Cardinal controlled this one from the start, and McCaffrey shined as usual, as Stanford won 27 - 10.

B1G Bold Prediction: Colorado stuns Michigan in the Big House

The Buffs jumped out to a 14 - 0 lead, and kept it close for a while, but ultimately couldn't keep up with the Wolverines.  Michigan prevailed, 45 - 28, but showed some potential weaknesses that other teams will undoubtedly try to exploit.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Defense records pick-six in third straight game

Basic defense?  The Silver Bullets were anything but basic as they held a potent Oklahoma offense in check all game.  And once again, they registered a pick-six.  This time it was Jerome Baker who capitalized, intercepting a tipped pass and returning it 68 yards for the score.  For those of you keeping track at home, the Ohio State defense has now scored 28 points this season.  Opposing offenses? 23 points.  Hell, if the secondary keeps playing like this the Buckeyes won't even need an offense. They can just have Johnson punt on first down and let the Bullets do their thing. Somewhere, Jim Tressel just wet himself.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Cal upends up-and-coming Texas

Against opponents not named UTEP, the Longhorns have surrendered 45 points on average. Granted, two games is a small sample size and the Notre Dame score was inflated because of the two overtime periods. But still, I think it's safe to say Texas isn't back yet. Better, maybe, but not "back."

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Jim Harbaugh is a booger eater

Yep.

Week 3 record: 3 - 2
2016 record: 8 - 7


Second and 6: Predicting the future!



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Stanford falls to UCLA

 It's really just a matter of time until the Cardinal drops a game or two.  Maybe it happens this week?  UCLA wins by 6.

B1G Bold Prediction: Badgers take down Spartans in East Lansing

This one will depend greatly on the health of Wisconsin's running backs.  They have four running backs with game experience, and three of them are listed as questionable.  If #6 Corey Clement plays, I believe the Badgers have a chance in this one.  MSU suffers their first loss of the season, 23 - 20.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: I come face-to-face with former OSU players

Hey, it could happen...

Why-not Bold Prediction: Clemson stumbles at Georgia Tech

The Tigers have looked shaky against real competition so far, and they could fall victim to what looks like a classic trap game this Thursday.  They are certainly aware of what Louisville did to the Seminoles, and may very well be looking ahead to their match-up with the Cardinals in two weeks.  But first, they have to deal with an always dangerous Georgia Tech triple option attack.  With enough time to prepare, it can be defended without too much trouble, but they have just a few days to get ready.  The home team has walked away with the win the past six times these squads met.  Clemson travels to Atlanta, where they will lose, 31 - 28.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Louisville's Lamar Jackson lights up scoreboard... again

Florida State couldn't stop him.  There's no way Marshall, who gave up 560 yards and 65 points to Akron, can stop #8.  The Cardinals crush the Herd, 66 - 14, behind another big game from Jackson.


Third and 3: Is Louisville for real?



They certainly looked legit in their 63 - 20 demolition of Florida State.  And I'm not questioning the talent of the Cardinals or the ability of Jackson, which was prominently on display Saturday.  But with the win, they go from being the hunter to being the hunted.  The former is always easier, because the pressure is infinitely lower.  They've vaulted to 3rd in the AP poll; can they deal with the expectations and the spotlight that comes with it?  They have all the pieces to be a championship caliber team, and I won't even be surprised if they beat Clemson on Oct 1.  But I will be surprised if they end up in the top 4 at the end of the year, just because these are kids who aren't used to being given the media attention and praise week in and week out.  Eventually, I think it will become too much for Louisville, and they will drop a couple of games.  I could be wrong, of course.


Fourth down: bye week, let's punt

Thursday, September 15, 2016

College Football Three and Out: Week 3

First and 5: Recapping week 2



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Charleston Southern scores 3 or fewer points against Seminoles

CSU managed to score more than 3 points, but still got blown out by Florida State, 52 - 8.

B1G Bold Prediction: Akron holds a lead over Wisconsin at some point in second half

There was no slow start for the Badgers, as they racked up 30 points in the first half alone.  The Zips never held the lead at any point in the game, as Wisconsin went on to win 54 - 10, moving to 2-0 on the season.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Ohio State triples Tulsa's rushing yardage

Once again, I had doubts about this prediction early on, as the Golden Hurricane out-rushed the Buckeyes 55 - 21 yards in the first quarter.  But two second-quarter pick-sixes gave OSU all the momentum heading into halftime.  And after an extended intermission, the Bucks came out strong on both sides of the ball, and ended up racking up a total of 268 yards on the ground, more than quadrupling Tulsa's final rushing total of 58 yards (that's right, a net of only 3 yards over the final three quarters!).  More importantly, Ohio State registered win number two.  But there's no time to celebrate with a trip to Norman on the horizon.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Arkansas knocks off TCU

I nailed this one, as the Razorbacks not only defeated the 15th ranked Horned Frogs, but won by 3 points as I had predicted.  It took two overtimes, but Arkansas emerged victorious, 41 - 38.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Some teams will win, but at the same time, other ones will lose

While about half of all teams won in week 2, roughly 50% weren't quite as lucky.

Week 2 record: 3 - 2
2016 record: 5 - 5


Second and 6: Predicting the future!



Top-10 Bold Prediction: USC takes down Stanford

The Cardinal are going for their 3rd straight win in the rivalry, and I think the Trojans have had enough.  They didn't look too hot against Alabama, but I think they have enough talent to give the reigning Pac-12 champs their first loss.  USC wins, 26 - 24.

B1G Bold Prediction: Colorado stuns Michigan in the Big House

I don't really think this will happen, but it would be funny if it did.  Buffaloes 24, Wolverines 23?  On a blocked field goal with 6 seconds left, to boot (pun intended).

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Defense records pick-six in third straight game

The Silver Bullets will light up Mayfield, and when he gets careless, reckless, and/or hesitant, they will capitalize. Hooker takes another one to the house in the fourth quarter of a close game to seal the win. 35 - 24.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Cal upends up-and-coming Texas

All it took was a double-OT win over Notre Dame and it became official: Texas was back.  Wait, what?  I'm not buying it yet.  I see the Golden Bears giving the Longhorns some trouble, maybe even pulling off the upset. 36 - 30, Cal.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Jim Harbaugh is a booger eater

This is not so much a prediction as it is a simple fact. It is a true statement supported by indisputable video evidence. No matter what the khaki-clad nose-spelunking football coach says, he is, has always been, and will always be a booger eater.


Third and 7: I'll take 'Big 12 playoff trouble' for $200, Alex



Texas, Baylor, and West Virginia.  If you said: "Who are the remaining undefeated teams in the Big 12 conference?" and you were actually on Jeopardy!, you'd be $200 richer.  The other 7 teams in the conference (yes, that math is correct) all have at least one loss.  Oklahoma State's loss to CMU may have an asterisk next to it, but it still counts.  And I'm not saying it's impossible for any of these one-loss teams to come back and still win it all (just ask Ohio State and Alabama about that).  But to have only three teams standing after two weeks is not a good way to kick off the season.  I don't believe Texas is a playoff caliber team yet, and Baylor seems destined to take a step back after firing Art Briles, and West Virginia is, well, West Virginia.  So that means one of the one-loss teams has to run the table the rest of the way to have a realistic shot at a spot in the final four.  Can Oklahoma beat Ohio State and make it through the Big 12 unscathed?  If not, will Oklahoma State (who still has to play a formidable Pitt team) or TCU rise to the occasion?  I'm not counting them out quite yet, but at this point it seems unlikely that the Big 12 will get an invite to the New Year's Eve party.


Fourth down: Give the ball to #4



Friday, September 9, 2016

College Football Three and Out: Week 2

First and 4: Recapping week 1



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Alabama starts 0-1 for the first time in 15 years

USC came in with some swagger, and actually looked decent early in the game, particularly on defense.  But eventually it became clear that they were over-matched, as the Crimson Tide rolled to an easy 52 - 6 win.  It may still be early in the season, but Alabama looks like the real deal and as good a bet as any to be in the top 4 at the end of the year.

B1G Bold Prediction: Eastern Kentucky upsets Purdue in opener

It was somewhat close for a while, but the Boilermakers were in control for the most part.  Purdue took care of business, winning 45 - 24, but will face a bigger challenge next week when Cincinnati comes to town.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: BGSU limited to 15 or fewer points

This prediction was looking somewhat shaky when the Falcons recorded a pick-six on OSU's first offensive possession to take an early 7-0 lead.  But Bowling Green wouldn't reach the end zone again, and a second quarter field goal would be their only other points of the game.  The Buckeyes, on the other hand, showcased the young talent they have all over the field, setting records on the way to a 77 - 10 victory.  Number 4, Curtis Samuel, impressed in particular, as he made plays all over the field.  The scary part?  There is still a lot of room for improvement.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Auburn stuns Clemson

This was a close one, as predicted, but Auburn's late rally fell just short, as they lost 19 - 13 to Watson and Co.  What was interesting, though, was Swinney's decision to go for it on 4th and 4, instead of attempting a 34 yard field goal that would have given Clemson a 9-point lead with less than a minute in the game.  Was this simply a miscalculation or is Swinney doubting his kicker, Huegel, who was 2 for 2 on field goals but missed an extra point earlier in the game?  The decision didn't cost them, but it will be something to keep an eye on throughout the season.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: UC Davis forces Oregon to punt

The Ducks showed their usual offensive prowess, but still had to punt four times against the Aggies.  Oregon won 53 - 28, but time (and tougher opponents) will tell how good Helfrich's team really is.

Week 1 record: 2 - 3
2016 record: 2 - 3


Second and 3: Predicting the future!



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Charleston Southern scores 3 or fewer points against Seminoles

Florida State is coming off of a short week after an emotional come-from-behind win over Ole Miss on Monday night, so I don't expect them to be at the top of their game.  However, Charleston Southern is facing a much bigger challenge, as news broke today that 14 of their players will be suspended for their game against FSU.  It would have already been a tall task for the Buccaneers to upset the Seminoles, but now it seems impossible.  I'll go one step further, though, and say that they won't score more than 3 points.  Either way, the more newsworthy part is the horrible way the NCAA and CSU seems to be treating these athletes after what sounds like an honest (and entirely avoidable) mistake.

B1G Bold Prediction: Akron holds a lead over Wisconsin at some point in second half

Make no mistake, the Badgers will win this game, but they will have a slow start vs the Zips.  Both teams will find little success moving the ball early on, but a turnover by Wisconsin will give Akron an easy touchdown and the lead in the 3rd quarter.  But eventually the Badgers will take control and wear down the Zips.  A strong final quarter gives Paul Chryst's squad win number two, by a score of 31 - 13.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Ohio State triples Tulsa's rushing yardage

Both the Buckeyes and the Golden Hurricane had dominating performances in the trenches in week 1.  OSU and Tulsa out-rushed their week 1 opponents 359 - 69 and 305 - 53, respectively.  The weather forecast for Saturday in Columbus looks a bit grim, so I expect both teams to try and establish a presence on the ground.  But I think only the Buckeyes find success, as they run over Tulsa, tripling their yardage total.  The score won't be quite as jaw-dropping as last week vs Bowling Green, but Ohio State still wins big, 49 - 17.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Arkansas knocks off TCU

The Razorbacks looked awful in their opener, barely surviving Louisiana Tech at home.  But the Horned Frogs didn't look too great themselves, allowing 41 points to South Dakota State.  If Arkansas can slow down TCU's spread attack, they will have a shot at an upset in Fort Worth.  Bert's Hogs win by 3, 24 - 21.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Some teams will win, but at the same time, other ones will lose

The game of football is mostly about winning, but sometimes you lose.


Third and 2: You know nothing, John Snow



If you had any doubts about how meaningless preseason rankings were, look no further than week 1 of 2016.  Numerous ranked teams lost, including two in the top 5, while even more looked sloppy against sub-par competition.  Now, you can surely expect some sloppiness in the first game of the season, but when the SEC, the conference routinely touted as the best in country, goes 6-6 in non-conference games, it might mean something.  So, what does it all mean?  What do we know?

Alabama is elite again.  Unless USC isn't actually that good.  For the 5th straight year.

LSU and Oklahoma were overrated.  Or were Wisconsin and Houston underrated?

Texas is back, baby!  And/or Notre Dame is under-performing... again.

Florida State is still a second half team.  Either that, or Ole Miss is simply bad in the second half in 2016.

Louisville, Baylor, Ohio State, Michigan, Washington, Iowa, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Oregon have explosive, unstoppable offenses.  And/or they faced weak competition in week 1.

So, in conclusion... we know nothing.


Fourth down: Swinney says to go for it.  Eh, let's punt.