It doesn't matter that we're supposed to win by 40.
On the first kick-off, the scoreboard will still read 0 - 0. Being a heavy favorite won't help us tackle. It won't allow us to gain more yards or score more points. We still have to earn every inch on that football field and if we aren't prepared, we won't be successful.
It doesn't matter that we have 15 former four-star or five-star recruits in our freshman class and they've had 2 in the last ten years.
They will still be motivated, perhaps more so because of that. They will play their hardest football of the year because of where they are and who they're playing. And if we don't match their level of intensity, we will lose.
It doesn't matter that we could have as many as 7 players drafted in the first round of next year's NFL draft.
What happens in the future doesn't help us today. Ignore what the analysts think. Disregard projections for conference winners and bowl games and playoffs, because it won't change what happens on that football field. If we listen to the hype surrounding our own football team, we will fall.
It doesn't matter if Hawaii players do the Haka dance or wear retro uniforms with rainbow stripes.
All that matters is 60 minutes of all-or-nothing football. All that matters is leaving it all on the field. All that matters is beating them. We will beat them.
1. Michigan State drops 40+ on Oregon... and loses
The Ducks will be underdogs for the first time since 2011, and on paper, the Spartans are the better team. But both teams looked vulnerable defensively in their season openers, making me think this could turn into a shootout. That scenario definitely favors Oregon, and I think they come away victorious after a 4th quarter touchdown drive puts them on top to win, 45 - 42.
2. Tennessee bests Oklahoma by a touchdown or more
The Vols are a popular sleeper pick in the SEC East, and I believe they will win that division. But before they can even think about that, they must face a tough Sooner team that is a slight favorite. I see this game staying close well into the 4th quarter, but a late Oklahoma turnover gives Tennessee a score and the game, 33 - 24 Vols.
3. Ohio State's "Zone 6" lights up the scoreboard with 6+ touchdowns against Hawaii
The talented Buckeye receiving corps did some serious damage against a good Virginia Tech secondary last week. This week, Jalin Marshall, Dontre Wilson, and Corey Smith return from suspension and the Rainbow Warriors don't have an answer for a single one of them (or Michael Thomas, or Braxton Miller, or Curtis Samuel...). Look for many scores - on the ground and through the air - for this dynamic bunch of wide receivers and H-backs. It's a short week for Ohio State, but they still cruise to an easy win, 59 - 10.
4. B1G rebounds with 12 or more wins
The conference managed only 8 wins last week, against a lineup of mostly mediocre/weak opponents. The match-ups get easier this week, so I expect a strong showing with no more than 2 losses. The only games I see being close are: Michigan State vs Oregon, Rutgers vs Washington State, Iowa vs Iowa State, and maybe one or two others. If the Big Ten can win some of these close games and avoid upsets elsewhere, they should be able to manage an impressive 12 wins in week 2.
5. AP voters decide to just put the whole damn SEC in the top 25
The Southeastern Conference landed a record 10 teams in the rankings after week 1, which begs the question: why aren't the other 4 ranked? The voters can easily fix this by inserting any remaining unbeaten, unranked SEC teams into the top 25 without question. In the case of those with losses, simply add the team that beat said SEC team to the top 25 and now it's a "quality loss". Boom. All 14 SEC teams justifiably ranked. Good luck having a better strength of schedule than any SEC team, teams from other crappy conferences.
The game I was most worried about was #15 Arizona State vs Texas A&M, as the Aggies were actually favored to win despite being unranked. And while I was right to be concerned (Texas A&M beat the Sun Devils 38 - 17), this prediction was spoiled before that game even started. Northwestern surprised everyone with a 16 - 6 upset of #21 Stanford. But perhaps more perplexing is the Wildcats' absence in the rankings after the big win, while A&M vaulted to 16th.
2. Utes spoil Harbaugh's debut with double-digit beat-down
My score prediction (24 - 14) was very close to the actual result (24 - 17), and I was right about Michigan's offensive struggles, but a late touchdown drive by the Wolverines ruined any chance of getting this one right. As expected, Michigan's defense was decent, but Iowa transfer-QB Jake Rudock looked shaky and their running game just never got going. Things get a little easier for Harbaugh's squad next week with Oregon State coming to town, but it's clear that any delusions that the new head coach would instantly transform Michigan into a top-tier program in year 1 should be dismissed.
3. Ezekiel Elliott tops 200 rushing yards... again
This one looked promising, as Elliott burst out of the gate with an 80-yard touchdown run on his first carry of the game. But Ohio State limited the Heisman hopeful's touches, as the Virginia Tech defense loaded the box. The Buckeyes compensated by finding creative ways to get Braxton Miller and other playmakers involved. The result was a resounding 42 - 24 win that should help erase the memory of last year's painful loss in Columbus. This prediction never came true though, as the running back had just 11 carries for 122 yards.
4. Illinois falters without head coach, loses opener to Kent State
No head coach? No problem. At least for Illinois, who steamrolled Kent State 52 - 3. It was more of the same for the Golden Flashes, who will look for a better result next week against FCS foe Delaware State.
5. Virginia Tech players make it through first game without getting fined
I think Bud Foster had his hands full without having to worry about collecting petty cash from his players for every missed tackle or other miscue (though who knows, perhaps the extra motivation would have helped).
Week 1 record: 1 - 4
Overall record: 1 - 4
Ouch. Not a good start.
Other headlines from week 1:
Cardale Jones named starting quarterback for Ohio State
By the time Labor Day finally rolled around, it seemed like everyone had collectively decided that it would be J.T. Barrett taking the reins at quarterback for the Buckeyes. Somewhere along the way, we had forgotten that the decision was Meyer's and Meyer's alone. With Jones getting the nod, he supplanted Elliot as the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman. Braxton Miller is up there on Vegas' list as well, at number 12, with Barrett right behind him. For those of you keeping track, that's 4 Ohio State players in the top 13 most popular picks to win the Heisman at this point. Let's be real though, we've only played one game, and a lot can change between now and December. But it's clear that expectations are sky-high for these Buckeyes.
Big Ten off to another rough start
It's obviously too early to write off any particular league (we learned that last year after nearly everyone dismissed the Big Ten following a poor week 2 showing), but things definitely could have gone better for Midwestern college football fans during kick-off week. The good: Northwestern knocked off Stanford; Ohio State exacted revenge on Virginia Tech; Michigan State, Iowa, Maryland, Rutgers, and Illinois all handled lesser opponents with relative ease. The bad: Michigan and Minnesota came up short against Utah and TCU, respectively; Indiana barely survived an FCS upset bid after surrendering 47 points to Southern Illinois; Nebraska lost to BYU on a Hail Mary as time expired. The ugly: Penn State gave up 10 sacks in a 27 - 10 loss to Temple; Wisconsin was blown out by Alabama, 35 - 17; Purdue lost to Marshall, 41 - 31, as the Boilermaker QB threw 4 interceptions (2 returned for touchdowns... by the same player).
When all else fails, play dead
A Bowling Green DL lost his shoe in the game against Tennessee, and then suddenly and inexplicably went down with an undisclosed injury... idiocy or brilliance? You decide.
It's about taking back what's ours. Last year, they came into our house and took something from us: perfection. The dash-1 on a championship season. They almost took more, as the loss nearly cost us the fourth and final playoff spot. In the end, we showed we were the best in the country. But on that night on September 6, 2014, we weren't even the best team on the football field. They pushed us around and beat us in every facet of the game.
It's not about proving something to the rest of the country. It's about proving something to ourselves.
It's about showing that we are a different team from a year ago. We aren't the young and inexperienced team from that embarrassing week 2 loss, nor are we the team that bludgeoned Wisconsin and outran Alabama and bullied Oregon. We are a new team and nobody knows yet what we can do but us.
It's not about defending. It's about winning one game.
It's about winning this game. It's a matter of one team wanting it more. Working harder. Last year they wanted it more than we did and fought harder, were tougher than us. This time, we have to want it more. We have to be tougher.
It's not about repeating. It's about redefining.
It's about redefining ourselves. It's about lining up across from the other guy, knowing that this time we're better. It's about looking them in the eyes and knowing we will beat them, and then doing it.
In the crazy world of college football, it's actually more rare for all the favorites to come away victorious. But that's what I'm predicting in week 1: all ranked teams getting wins over unranked or lower-ranked opponents. The last time that happened? Week 4... of the 2013 season. There will be plenty of excitement in the opening week of football, but don't count on too many upsets.
2. Utes spoil Harbaugh's debut with double-digit beat-down
Jim Harbaugh will get Michigan back on track, but it won't be an overnight transformation like some fans are predicting. Utah is a quality football team and with big questions at quarterback for the Wolverines, things could get ugly. Maybe not as ugly as last year's offensive implosion in Ann Arbor, but I'm projecting at least a 10-point win for Utah. Utes win at home, 24 - 14.
3. Ezekiel Elliott tops 200 rushing yards... again
If you had asked me a month ago, I would have said that there was no way Elliott has a remarkable fourth straight game (continued from last season) with over 200 yards on the ground. With so many offensive weapons on Ohio State's roster, there would just not be enough touches for Elliott to reach that number. But after the suspensions of Jalin Marshall, Dontre Wilson, and Corey Smith and now Noah Brown's injury, the Buckeyes will be without four of their top pass-catchers. Don't get me wrong, Ohio State is still loaded with talent (though somewhat unproven) at WR and H-back, but I think they will rely much more heavily on the ground game. Virginia Tech will stack the box, but still will not be able to stop the best running back in the country behind a veteran offensive line. Elliott leads the charge as the Buckeyes pound their way to victory, 31 - 13.
4. Illinois falters without head coach, loses opener to Kent State
The Golden Flashes of Kent State only managed 2 wins from 2014, and were among the worst teams in the MAC. But just a week before the start of the season, Illinois fired head coach Tim Beckman over allegations that he and his staff pressured players to play despite injuries. Suddenly, what should have been a gimme for the Fighting Illini becomes much more interesting. Kent State can only get better from last year (right?) while the situation at Illinois is an absolute mess. The locker room is likely divided, with some players siding with Beckman and others glad that he's gone. I just can't see how interim coach Bill Cubit will have them ready for this game. Illinois has more talent, but Kent State pulls off the upset, 38 - 34.
5. Virginia Tech players make it through first game without getting fined
Recently, it became known that Hokies Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster had tried (at least) to implement a fairly complex and very ridiculous fine system for players. Miss a class? $45. Dirty dorm room? $50. Personal foul? $100. While the university now says the program is discontinued, it sounds like there has been (and will continue to be) some other kind of system in place which comes out of "bowl type stuff". I don't really know what that means, but I can only guess at what possible fine-able offenses might be for VT's season opener against Ohio State:
Dropped pass: $10
Turnover: $25
Missed tackle: $15
TD given up: $50
Getting trucked by Cardale: priceless
They better hope the fine system really was decommissioned...
Last year I managed a 37 - 58 record in my bold predictions, and I hope to do better this year. Let's kick things off with my overall bold predictions for the 2015 season.
1. We will see new faces at the top of at least 4 of the 5 power conferences
The defending champions of each Power Five conference have been dominant in recent years, but I wouldn't be shocked to see most of them come up short in 2015, for various reasons. Oregon has won the Pacific conference four out of the last six seasons, but they face a tough challenge this year in replacing Marcus Mariota and other key playmakers. For the sake of this prediction, I am considering Baylor the 2014 Big 12 champs (they would have been under this year's rules). And make no mistake - they might do it again in 2015. The one team standing in the way is the one they shared the title with last year: TCU. I think the Horned Frogs avenge their lone loss from 2014 with a victory over the Bears to snatch away the conference crown. Florida State has won three straight ACC titles but lost Heisman-winner Jameis Winston to the draft and looked somewhat shaky already, despite a 13-1 record in 2014. Alabama also faces a major rebuilding year, while many other SEC teams appear on the rise. Ohio State has by far the best chances to repeat as a Power Five conference winner. But they still have to get by a formidable week 1 opponent in Virginia Tech, and Big Ten foes Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan, to name a few. Expect to be surprised at who emerges atop the rankings by the time playoff season rolls around, that's all I'm saying.
2. A non-QB wins the Heisman for the first time since 2009
The last Heisman winner who wasn't a quarterback was Alabama running back Mark Ingram in 2009. You have to go back an additional four ten years to find another non-QB winner. In other words, it's really rare for anyone other than a quarterback to win the most prestigious individual award in college football, especially with the rising popularity of offensive styles that revolve around the QB. But there are a few pretty good running backs and wide receivers out there that have a shot to take home the hardware this year, including a certain Ohio State tailback who tore through some of the nation's top defenses in the Buckeyes' 2014 postseason championship run.
3. Boise State goes undefeated in regular season
Last year, the Broncos finished off a 12-2 season with an impressive win over Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl. They have a favorable schedule in 2015, and a 12-0 start should be a real possibility. Their toughest tests come early, with match-ups against Washington and BYU in weeks 1 and 2, respectively. If they make it to week 3 unscathed, look for them to finish the regular season with a perfect record, and most likely handle whomever they would face in the MWC Championship Game. Whether that would be enough to earn a playoff spot (and how they would fare if they did) remains to be seen.
4. Notre Dame falls hilariously short of expectations (again), loses at least three games
Many have the Fighting Irish pegged as a top-10 team, even a playoff contender. But countless times I've seen the hype for this team turn out to be just that - hype. Just like last year, I think Notre Dame looks strong at the outset but eventually collapses, loses three or more games and drops well out of the hunt for a national title.
5. Braxton Miller scores every way imaginable
The Ohio State QB-turned-receiver will show everyone why he's still the most dynamic player in the country, by scoring at least one touchdown in every one of these categories: rushing, receiving, passing, and special teams (kick/punt return). You've been warned, America.
Ask any runner: there are a lot of bad races out there. Between poor organization, lack of communication, and logistical nightmares, there are countless ways to turn a running event into a miserable disaster. And yet, so many race directors insist on putting time and effort into their races in order to provide a fun and positive experience - which is absurd, because everyone knows running should be a grueling, agonizing sport that gives no one enjoyment. This guide is intended for these "good" race organizers, to give them a set of rules to follow in order to hopefully make their races a bit more terrible and a lot less successful.
Pre-race communication: nah
Don't have a website. Runners want to work hard, why make it easy? If you must have a website, include as few details as possible. Send numerous emails with conflicting information. The race will start sometime between 6 AM and 10 AM, at someplace. There will be water stops somewhere. Maybe. Keep those runners on their toes, I've heard that's good for them.
Overcharge, overcharge, then overcharge some more
How else will people know it's a serious event without a serious price tag? You might be giving some of it to charity, possibly, so they won't mind paying a little extra for that t-shirt and banana and pain. Raise the price exponentially as the event date nears, with same-day registration reaching an amount so staggering it would make Mr. Burns cry. I would say to charge an arm and a leg, but runners will probably need most of their limbs to participate in your race.
The expo should be bigger than the race
The only thing runners like more than agony is stuff that will later cause them agony, and the best is if you can combine the two. So, cram as many vendors into as small a room as possible and then carve out a 2-foot-wide path that winds around all of them. Only have a few people handling registration and packet pick-up, so that standing in line at the expo becomes an endurance event in itself. Participants will thank you for giving them one last brutally draining challenge before the big race.
Logistics are for losers
If it's a point-to-point course, one or two buses for transporting runners to the start ought to be plenty. Twelve-thousand participants can share twelve porta-potties (it's not like everyone would have to go at the same time, right?). Waiting in line as the start time creeps up will create a sense of urgency that will greatly aid any runner. When it's time to start the race, casually say: "Okay, go," without warning.
Turn the race into an adventure!
Runners love to explore! Keep directional markers on the course at a minimum so participants can find their own way to the finish line. Volunteers may or may not even know the right way to go! Listen to them at your own risk, runners. Make sure the race crosses or follows many busy roads. Dodging traffic will up the excitement factor and ensure only the best and most agile runners finish.
Measure once and cut... once?
Getting the distance exactly right when you're talking about a winding 10, 13.1, or even 26.2 mile race is pretty tricky. So it's no big deal if you're off by one or two miles. If it's short, runners will be pleasantly surprised to have the anguish end sooner than usual. If it's long, well, they came there to run, didn't they? They probably won't notice such a small discrepancy anyway.
Food and water should have to be earned
Only have enough post-race refreshments for the top one-third of finishers or so. This will motivate those other slowpokes to get better. Want that stale quarter-bagel piece? Run faster next time. I mean, do they really even need it, considering how unbelievably long it took them to finish?
That's it!
These are all the tips you will need to put on an absolutely horrible race. Follow these and you're bound to have many runners, as masochistic as they are, lining up around the corner!
