College Football Three and Out: 2016 Season

First and 30:  Recapping 2015

A long time ago I made some bold predictions about the 2015 season... let's check back to see how I did:

I was right that we would see new faces at the top of at least 4 of the 5 power conferences, but wrong about Ohio State being the one team to repeat.  Michigan State thwarted the Buckeyes' shot at a repeat B1G championship (and ultimately, a shot at the title) and claimed the crown in Indy and a spot in the playoffs as a result (and proceeded to lay an egg in the Cotton Bowl).  Stanford won the Pac-12, despite losing to the Pac-12 defending champ Oregon Ducks.  Oklahoma beat out both TCU and Baylor in a league ravaged by QB injuries, while Clemson stayed perfect in the regular season to snatch the ACC title away from Florida State.  The one team that did manage to repeat as a Power 5 champ was Alabama, and they made it count, as they went on to claim a fourth national title in seven years.

I was also right that a non-QB would win the Heisman for the first time since 2009.  It wasn't any of the preseason favorites, but by season's end a running back was holding the trophy.  There was some debate over who should have won, but most people agreed that Alabama's Derrick Henry and Stanford's Christian McCaffrey were the two top contenders.  In the end, it was Henry who took home the award, but both running backs had historic seasons.  Clemson QB Deshaun Watson also had a fantastic year, leading the Tigers to a perfect 14-0 record before finally falling to Alabama in the championship game.  Watson finished 3rd in Heisman voting.

I was very wrong about Boise State going undefeated in the regular season.  Although, I was looking pretty smart after saying that their only real challenges would come in the first two weeks... until Mid-October.  They narrowly beat Washington in week 1 and then lost to BYU the following week, but followed it up with 4 straight blowout wins.  And then Utah State came along and delivered a 52 - 26 beat-down to the Broncos.  They would go on to lose a couple more, too, making this prediction a complete bust.

I give myself half credit for predicting that Notre Dame would lose at least three games, but they didn't exactly fall hilariously short of expectations.  They were a couple plays (or maybe just one play) away from creeping into the playoffs, with narrow loses to top tier teams Clemson and Stanford.  And then there was the Fiesta Bowl.

I was feeling pretty confident that Braxton Miller would score every way imaginable, after seeing him tear up Virginia Tech's defense in week 1, recording rushing and receiving touchdowns.  But he was never utilized in a way that made any kind of special teams or passing touchdowns possible.  He took quite a few snaps under center but only threw once, for a three yard completion (what, you don't remember that doozy of a play?).  And Miller never lined up deep to return a punt or kickoff.  He made plenty of electric plays, but this prediction was ultimately no good.

Record: 2.5 - 2.5
Overall 2015 record: 30 - 60
Overall record (2014 - 2015): 67 - 118

Second and 2: Predicting the future!

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Alabama misses the playoff

Most people believe that the Crimson Tide will continue their dominance in college football and make the playoffs for the third straight year (if not win it all).  But I think this is finally the year that Alabama has a bit of a down year.  It has to happen sooner or later, right??  They win the SEC but get left out after suffering two losses.

B1G Bold Prediction: Michigan Regresses

"Remember how great Rich Rodriguez was at Michigan?" is something you'll never hear anyone outside of Columbus say.  And yet, he's the only UM coach to have a better record in their second year than their first since Gary Moeller did it 25 years ago.  Granted, that stat is a bit misleading because of Lloyd Carr's long tenure in Ann Arbor.  Still, I think the hype around the maize and blue this year is a bit premature, and that they will actually take a (small) step back in year 2 under Harbaugh.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU has a quarterback and running back both eclipse 1000 yards

Ohio State hasn't had a QB/RB duo rush for 1000 yards each since 2013, when Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde terrorized defenses.  But this year, I think there is definite potential to do it again with J.T. Barrett and Mike Weber.  We've already seen what Barrett can do when given the chance, and this year he won't have to worry about looking over his shoulder.  As for Weber, he's drawn comparisons to Hyde, despite being a bit smaller in size.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Group of Five team makes the playoff

If Houston pulls off the upset against Oklahoma in week 1, then all of a sudden this becomes a real possibility.  If not?  Well... there's always Boise State... There aren't too many plausible candidates outside of those two, but who knows?

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: People disagree with CFP Committee's top 4

Both of the previous seasons in the playoff era have ended with fans calmly reviewing the final rankings, taking a sip of tea, and quietly stating "Well, those seem most appropriate and fair.  This is a splendid set of rankings with which I don't disagree in the slightest.  The selection and ordering is both logical and accurate."

Third and 4: Lessons learned from year 2 of the CFP

The second edition of the College Football Playoff has built on what the first year taught us, and now we're starting to get a better idea of what it takes to make the final four.  It reinforced an idea that any sane follower of the sport always knew to be true: if you play in a Power 5 conference and go undefeated, you'll get a shot.  We've had two such teams in the playoff era: Florida State in 2014 and Clemson last year.  Although the Seminoles dropped as low as 4th in the rankings, and finished 3rd in the committee's final vote, they were never really in danger of missing the big dance.  Still, that didn't stop the ubiquitous voices of the internet from wondering if maybe an undefeated Power 5 team could be left out of the playoffs.  The musings seemed even more justified when Florida State was cracked apart like a pair of crab legs by Oregon in the Rose Bowl.  But Clemson's impressive 14-0 run and competitive match with Alabama in the championship seems to show that the FSU of 2014 was more of the exception, than the rule.

Where it gets more interesting is when you look at one-loss teams.  Both years we've had a lone undefeated team and five one-loss teams coming out of championship week.  That meant that two of the one-loss teams got left out.  But how did the committee decide which two to ditch?  The most obvious explanation is that they chose the outright conference champions.  Both times, that seemed to work out cleanly (though Baylor and TCU fans might disagree).  In 2015, the two teams excluded were Iowa and Ohio State, neither of which won their conference, and both lost to Michigan State, B1G champ and representative in the playoff.  And in 2014, the losers were the aforementioned Bears and Horned Frogs, who shared the Big 12 title.  That's a little more of a grey area, but when you have an undefeated squad and three outright one-loss champs, who each played an additional game against quality competition, the choice seems straightforward.  But are they really getting the four best teams?

Heather Dinich from ESPN wrote an article recently delving into this topic, asking whether the committee should be picking the best teams or the most deserving.  But it's a pointless question.  Both are subjective measurements and when it comes to picking the best, it may not be clear until after the dust of the postseason settles.  It's easy in retrospect to say that TCU was better than Florida State in 2014, or that Stanford was better than Michigan State last year.  But could you have really justified swapping these teams in either case?  The answer is no.

Here's what we can say with confidence:  If you're going to lose a game, make it early on and to someone good (but not too good, unless it's in out-of-conference play).  TCU, Ohio State, and Iowa saw what happened when you lose to someone too good.  Of the six one-loss teams that made the playoff over these first two years, the average win percentage of the team that beat them (before postseason) was .603.  The four one-loss teams that were left out?  They lost to teams with an average win percentage of .840.  So much for the benefit of having a "quality loss" (a term I hate, by the way).  Really, what it comes down to is making sure you win your conference.  Of course, the only real surefire way to make the playoff?  Win all your games.

Fourth down: Time to punt!