College Football Three and Out: Week 5

First and 11: Recapping week 4

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Stanford falls to UCLA

The Bruins had 'em on the ropes, and then the Cardinal scored twice in the last 24 seconds.  The second didn't matter (except to those in Vegas), but it really shows how bad the late collapse was by UCLA.  Stanford survived again, 22 - 13.  I still stand by what I said earlier: they will lose eventually.  Maybe it will happen tonight against Washington?

B1G Bold Prediction: Badgers take down Spartans in East Lansing

Well, Clement played, but with how well Wisconsin's defense performed they probably didn't even need him.  Michigan State struggled to do much of anything on offense as they suffered their first loss of the season, 30 - 6.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: I come face-to-face with former OSU players

Beanie Wells, Bobby Carpenter, and Anthony Schlegel came to my work on Friday. They talked about their experiences at OSU and beyond, did Q&A, and signed autographs. OK, so I may have known about this ahead of time...

Why-not Bold Prediction: Clemson stumbles at Georgia Tech

The Tigers' defense was too good for the Yellow Jackets to have a legitimate chance in this one.  But unless their offense can start producing more consistently, Clemson may be in trouble.  And they don't have much time to get their act together - Louisville comes to town this Saturday. 

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Louisville's Lamar Jackson lights up scoreboard... again

Speaking of Louisville... Jackson did it again: 479 yards.  7 touchdowns.  Not bad.  Not bad at all.

Week 3 record: 3 - 2
2016 record: 11 - 9

Second and 3: Predicting the future!

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Louisville beats Clemson by double digits

 I'm sure the Cardinals are still embracing the underdog mindset, despite being slight favorites against the reigning ACC champs.  And with the talent they have, that's a dangerous thing.  I think they win again, and win big.  What will be a greater challenge (ironically) is when they face some of the lesser teams in the conference, and the blowout is expected.  But on Saturday they will roll to a 30 - 17 victory.

B1G Bold Prediction: Indiana upsets Michigan State

The Hoosiers are just good enough on offense that they might have a shot to give the Spartans their second loss, by a margin of 3 points.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Weber rushes for 200+ yards

The red-shirt freshman has been impressive so far, but with an offense loaded with play-makers, he hasn't gotten the attention that he might have otherwise.  He's been very close to breaking a long run on multiple occasions.  I think this is the week he really breaks loose, as Ohio State cruises to a 52 - 13 win.

Why-not Bold Prediction: TCU gives Sooners third loss

We'll learn a lot about the leadership of this Oklahoma team in the coming weeks.  After dropping games to Houston and Ohio State, they are all but eliminated from playoff contention.  But they still have the talent to compete for a Big 12 title, if they can forget about the postseason and just play football.  But that's easier said than done.  I think the wheels come off the wagon with a loss in Fort Worth, and it just gets worse from there.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: FIU scores three or more points

Florida International is bad at scoring points.

Third and Miles: LSU says goodbye

The biggest news in college football this week was Les Miles getting the boot.  I can't say I'm surprised, but I also can't help but think that LSU will end up regretting this decision.  It's hard to look at a 114 - 34 record and justify firing the guy at the helm.  Not to mention, he won a BCS title and competed for another.  I think in the end it was his and his staff's inability to develop the talent he recruited, particularly at quarterback, that cost him the job.  With the talent on his roster, the Tigers should have been vying for SEC and national titles on a regular basis.  I guess my biggest problem with the firing wasn't that they let him go, but the timing of it.  I just don't see the benefit of cutting the cord partway through the season.  I get that a 2-2 record to start the year isn't very impressive, but the chances of finding a good replacement now is very low.  Like I said, I can't blame LSU fans for demanding better, but to be honest I doubt they'll get it any time soon.  The next few years could be rough for the Tigers.

Fourth down: It's time for Big Ten football.  Run it down their throats.

College Football Three and Out: Week 4

First and 2: Recapping week 3

Top-10 Bold Prediction: USC takes down Stanford

 The Cardinal controlled this one from the start, and McCaffrey shined as usual, as Stanford won 27 - 10.

B1G Bold Prediction: Colorado stuns Michigan in the Big House

The Buffs jumped out to a 14 - 0 lead, and kept it close for a while, but ultimately couldn't keep up with the Wolverines.  Michigan prevailed, 45 - 28, but showed some potential weaknesses that other teams will undoubtedly try to exploit.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Defense records pick-six in third straight game

Basic defense?  The Silver Bullets were anything but basic as they held a potent Oklahoma offense in check all game.  And once again, they registered a pick-six.  This time it was Jerome Baker who capitalized, intercepting a tipped pass and returning it 68 yards for the score.  For those of you keeping track at home, the Ohio State defense has now scored 28 points this season.  Opposing offenses? 23 points.  Hell, if the secondary keeps playing like this the Buckeyes won't even need an offense. They can just have Johnson punt on first down and let the Bullets do their thing. Somewhere, Jim Tressel just wet himself.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Cal upends up-and-coming Texas

Against opponents not named UTEP, the Longhorns have surrendered 45 points on average. Granted, two games is a small sample size and the Notre Dame score was inflated because of the two overtime periods. But still, I think it's safe to say Texas isn't back yet. Better, maybe, but not "back."

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Jim Harbaugh is a booger eater

Yep.

Week 3 record: 3 - 2
2016 record: 8 - 7

Second and 6: Predicting the future!

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Stanford falls to UCLA

 It's really just a matter of time until the Cardinal drops a game or two.  Maybe it happens this week?  UCLA wins by 6.

B1G Bold Prediction: Badgers take down Spartans in East Lansing

This one will depend greatly on the health of Wisconsin's running backs.  They have four running backs with game experience, and three of them are listed as questionable.  If #6 Corey Clement plays, I believe the Badgers have a chance in this one.  MSU suffers their first loss of the season, 23 - 20.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: I come face-to-face with former OSU players

Hey, it could happen...

Why-not Bold Prediction: Clemson stumbles at Georgia Tech

The Tigers have looked shaky against real competition so far, and they could fall victim to what looks like a classic trap game this Thursday.  They are certainly aware of what Louisville did to the Seminoles, and may very well be looking ahead to their match-up with the Cardinals in two weeks.  But first, they have to deal with an always dangerous Georgia Tech triple option attack.  With enough time to prepare, it can be defended without too much trouble, but they have just a few days to get ready.  The home team has walked away with the win the past six times these squads met.  Clemson travels to Atlanta, where they will lose, 31 - 28.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Louisville's Lamar Jackson lights up scoreboard... again

Florida State couldn't stop him.  There's no way Marshall, who gave up 560 yards and 65 points to Akron, can stop #8.  The Cardinals crush the Herd, 66 - 14, behind another big game from Jackson.

Third and 3: Is Louisville for real?

They certainly looked legit in their 63 - 20 demolition of Florida State.  And I'm not questioning the talent of the Cardinals or the ability of Jackson, which was prominently on display Saturday.  But with the win, they go from being the hunter to being the hunted.  The former is always easier, because the pressure is infinitely lower.  They've vaulted to 3rd in the AP poll; can they deal with the expectations and the spotlight that comes with it?  They have all the pieces to be a championship caliber team, and I won't even be surprised if they beat Clemson on Oct 1.  But I will be surprised if they end up in the top 4 at the end of the year, just because these are kids who aren't used to being given the media attention and praise week in and week out.  Eventually, I think it will become too much for Louisville, and they will drop a couple of games.  I could be wrong, of course.

Fourth down: bye week, let's punt

College Football Three and Out: Week 3

First and 5: Recapping week 2

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Charleston Southern scores 3 or fewer points against Seminoles

CSU managed to score more than 3 points, but still got blown out by Florida State, 52 - 8.

B1G Bold Prediction: Akron holds a lead over Wisconsin at some point in second half

There was no slow start for the Badgers, as they racked up 30 points in the first half alone.  The Zips never held the lead at any point in the game, as Wisconsin went on to win 54 - 10, moving to 2-0 on the season.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Ohio State triples Tulsa's rushing yardage

Once again, I had doubts about this prediction early on, as the Golden Hurricane out-rushed the Buckeyes 55 - 21 yards in the first quarter.  But two second-quarter pick-sixes gave OSU all the momentum heading into halftime.  And after an extended intermission, the Bucks came out strong on both sides of the ball, and ended up racking up a total of 268 yards on the ground, more than quadrupling Tulsa's final rushing total of 58 yards (that's right, a net of only 3 yards over the final three quarters!).  More importantly, Ohio State registered win number two.  But there's no time to celebrate with a trip to Norman on the horizon.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Arkansas knocks off TCU

I nailed this one, as the Razorbacks not only defeated the 15th ranked Horned Frogs, but won by 3 points as I had predicted.  It took two overtimes, but Arkansas emerged victorious, 41 - 38.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Some teams will win, but at the same time, other ones will lose

While about half of all teams won in week 2, roughly 50% weren't quite as lucky.

Week 2 record: 3 - 2
2016 record: 5 - 5

Second and 6: Predicting the future!

Top-10 Bold Prediction: USC takes down Stanford

The Cardinal are going for their 3rd straight win in the rivalry, and I think the Trojans have had enough.  They didn't look too hot against Alabama, but I think they have enough talent to give the reigning Pac-12 champs their first loss.  USC wins, 26 - 24.

B1G Bold Prediction: Colorado stuns Michigan in the Big House

I don't really think this will happen, but it would be funny if it did.  Buffaloes 24, Wolverines 23?  On a blocked field goal with 6 seconds left, to boot (pun intended).

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Defense records pick-six in third straight game

The Silver Bullets will light up Mayfield, and when he gets careless, reckless, and/or hesitant, they will capitalize. Hooker takes another one to the house in the fourth quarter of a close game to seal the win. 35 - 24.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Cal upends up-and-coming Texas

All it took was a double-OT win over Notre Dame and it became official: Texas was back.  Wait, what?  I'm not buying it yet.  I see the Golden Bears giving the Longhorns some trouble, maybe even pulling off the upset. 36 - 30, Cal.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Jim Harbaugh is a booger eater

This is not so much a prediction as it is a simple fact. It is a true statement supported by indisputable video evidence. No matter what the khaki-clad nose-spelunking football coach says, he is, has always been, and will always be a booger eater.

Third and 7: I'll take 'Big 12 playoff trouble' for $200, Alex

Texas, Baylor, and West Virginia.  If you said: "Who are the remaining undefeated teams in the Big 12 conference?" and you were actually on Jeopardy!, you'd be $200 richer.  The other 7 teams in the conference (yes, that math is correct) all have at least one loss.  Oklahoma State's loss to CMU may have an asterisk next to it, but it still counts.  And I'm not saying it's impossible for any of these one-loss teams to come back and still win it all (just ask Ohio State and Alabama about that).  But to have only three teams standing after two weeks is not a good way to kick off the season.  I don't believe Texas is a playoff caliber team yet, and Baylor seems destined to take a step back after firing Art Briles, and West Virginia is, well, West Virginia.  So that means one of the one-loss teams has to run the table the rest of the way to have a realistic shot at a spot in the final four.  Can Oklahoma beat Ohio State and make it through the Big 12 unscathed?  If not, will Oklahoma State (who still has to play a formidable Pitt team) or TCU rise to the occasion?  I'm not counting them out quite yet, but at this point it seems unlikely that the Big 12 will get an invite to the New Year's Eve party.

Fourth down: Give the ball to #4

College Football Three and Out: Week 2

First and 4: Recapping week 1

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Alabama starts 0-1 for the first time in 15 years

USC came in with some swagger, and actually looked decent early in the game, particularly on defense.  But eventually it became clear that they were over-matched, as the Crimson Tide rolled to an easy 52 - 6 win.  It may still be early in the season, but Alabama looks like the real deal and as good a bet as any to be in the top 4 at the end of the year.

B1G Bold Prediction: Eastern Kentucky upsets Purdue in opener

It was somewhat close for a while, but the Boilermakers were in control for the most part.  Purdue took care of business, winning 45 - 24, but will face a bigger challenge next week when Cincinnati comes to town.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: BGSU limited to 15 or fewer points

This prediction was looking somewhat shaky when the Falcons recorded a pick-six on OSU's first offensive possession to take an early 7-0 lead.  But Bowling Green wouldn't reach the end zone again, and a second quarter field goal would be their only other points of the game.  The Buckeyes, on the other hand, showcased the young talent they have all over the field, setting records on the way to a 77 - 10 victory.  Number 4, Curtis Samuel, impressed in particular, as he made plays all over the field.  The scary part?  There is still a lot of room for improvement.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Auburn stuns Clemson

This was a close one, as predicted, but Auburn's late rally fell just short, as they lost 19 - 13 to Watson and Co.  What was interesting, though, was Swinney's decision to go for it on 4th and 4, instead of attempting a 34 yard field goal that would have given Clemson a 9-point lead with less than a minute in the game.  Was this simply a miscalculation or is Swinney doubting his kicker, Huegel, who was 2 for 2 on field goals but missed an extra point earlier in the game?  The decision didn't cost them, but it will be something to keep an eye on throughout the season.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: UC Davis forces Oregon to punt

The Ducks showed their usual offensive prowess, but still had to punt four times against the Aggies.  Oregon won 53 - 28, but time (and tougher opponents) will tell how good Helfrich's team really is.

Week 1 record: 2 - 3
2016 record: 2 - 3

Second and 3: Predicting the future!

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Charleston Southern scores 3 or fewer points against Seminoles

Florida State is coming off of a short week after an emotional come-from-behind win over Ole Miss on Monday night, so I don't expect them to be at the top of their game.  However, Charleston Southern is facing a much bigger challenge, as news broke today that 14 of their players will be suspended for their game against FSU.  It would have already been a tall task for the Buccaneers to upset the Seminoles, but now it seems impossible.  I'll go one step further, though, and say that they won't score more than 3 points.  Either way, the more newsworthy part is the horrible way the NCAA and CSU seems to be treating these athletes after what sounds like an honest (and entirely avoidable) mistake.

B1G Bold Prediction: Akron holds a lead over Wisconsin at some point in second half

Make no mistake, the Badgers will win this game, but they will have a slow start vs the Zips.  Both teams will find little success moving the ball early on, but a turnover by Wisconsin will give Akron an easy touchdown and the lead in the 3rd quarter.  But eventually the Badgers will take control and wear down the Zips.  A strong final quarter gives Paul Chryst's squad win number two, by a score of 31 - 13.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Ohio State triples Tulsa's rushing yardage

Both the Buckeyes and the Golden Hurricane had dominating performances in the trenches in week 1.  OSU and Tulsa out-rushed their week 1 opponents 359 - 69 and 305 - 53, respectively.  The weather forecast for Saturday in Columbus looks a bit grim, so I expect both teams to try and establish a presence on the ground.  But I think only the Buckeyes find success, as they run over Tulsa, tripling their yardage total.  The score won't be quite as jaw-dropping as last week vs Bowling Green, but Ohio State still wins big, 49 - 17.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Arkansas knocks off TCU

The Razorbacks looked awful in their opener, barely surviving Louisiana Tech at home.  But the Horned Frogs didn't look too great themselves, allowing 41 points to South Dakota State.  If Arkansas can slow down TCU's spread attack, they will have a shot at an upset in Fort Worth.  Bert's Hogs win by 3, 24 - 21.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Some teams will win, but at the same time, other ones will lose

The game of football is mostly about winning, but sometimes you lose.

Third and 2: You know nothing, John Snow

If you had any doubts about how meaningless preseason rankings were, look no further than week 1 of 2016.  Numerous ranked teams lost, including two in the top 5, while even more looked sloppy against sub-par competition.  Now, you can surely expect some sloppiness in the first game of the season, but when the SEC, the conference routinely touted as the best in country, goes 6-6 in non-conference games, it might mean something.  So, what does it all mean?  What do we know?

Alabama is elite again.  Unless USC isn't actually that good.  For the 5th straight year.

LSU and Oklahoma were overrated.  Or were Wisconsin and Houston underrated?

Texas is back, baby!  And/or Notre Dame is under-performing... again.

Florida State is still a second half team.  Either that, or Ole Miss is simply bad in the second half in 2016.

Louisville, Baylor, Ohio State, Michigan, Washington, Iowa, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Oregon have explosive, unstoppable offenses.  And/or they faced weak competition in week 1.

So, in conclusion... we know nothing.

Fourth down: Swinney says to go for it.  Eh, let's punt.

College Football Three and Out: Week 1

First and 10: Off-season recap

Some things happened.

Second and 15: Predicting the future!

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Alabama starts 0-1 for the first time in 15 years

USC rolls the Tide: 27 - 24.

B1G Bold Prediction: Eastern Kentucky upsets Purdue in opener

Things haven't gone particularly well for the Boilermakers in recent years.  The Colonels are about as soft an opponent as a Power 5 team could ask for, but I think they give Purdue all they can handle and more.  Things go from bad to worse in West Lafayette, as they fall, 22 - 15.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: BGSU limited to 15 or fewer points

Urban Meyer made his coaching debut with the Falcons 15 seasons ago, beating Missouri 20 - 13.  Mike Jinks won't find the same success on Saturday in his first game as the Bowling Green head coach.  They may have had a top 5 offense the past couple of seasons, but the Falcons sputter in the Shoe on Saturday.  Buckeyes show some rust early but eventually cruise to a 35 - 14 win.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Auburn stuns Clemson

Many are picking Clemson to win it all this year.  But I think they hit a road block at Auburn in week 1.  The home team scores the winning touchdown with 15 seconds left, putting a big dent in Clemson's playoff hopes.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: UC Davis forces Oregon to punt

I actually feel like it's possible that I get this one wrong... either way, Oregon wins, 64 - 15.

Third and 21: The Edge

Two years ago, we chased a title.  We were almost derailed early on.  But we never lost sight of the final goal.  And at the end, when the confetti cleared, we hoisted the trophy.  Last year, we tried to grind our way to a second title.  Maybe it was the pressure to repeat, or the drama of QBGeddon, or we just plain lost focus after winning so many consecutive games, but it didn't happen.  We fought and clawed our way through a schedule that should have been a breeze.  Until we faced a worthy foe in the Spartans, and The Chase: Part 2 came to a grinding halt.  Our championship dreams were ground down to dust, and in the wind and rain that spat in our face, it was swept away.  We took out our frustration by crushing that team up north, but it was too late.  We would have to wait another year to try again at a playoff run.

Now we stand on the edge of the abyss.  Below is the same place that we sat on the night of November 21, 2015, when the football sailed through the uprights to give Michigan State the 17 - 14 win.  It is mediocrity.  The chasm in front of us is the willingness to give in to just being "good enough".  But on the other side sits greatness.  Across the void is elite.  We can see it.  We can almost reach out and touch it.  So now, we jump.  Don't look down.

Fourth Down: Football Season is here.  Air it out.

College Football Three and Out: 2016 Season

First and 30:  Recapping 2015

A long time ago I made some bold predictions about the 2015 season... let's check back to see how I did:

I was right that we would see new faces at the top of at least 4 of the 5 power conferences, but wrong about Ohio State being the one team to repeat.  Michigan State thwarted the Buckeyes' shot at a repeat B1G championship (and ultimately, a shot at the title) and claimed the crown in Indy and a spot in the playoffs as a result (and proceeded to lay an egg in the Cotton Bowl).  Stanford won the Pac-12, despite losing to the Pac-12 defending champ Oregon Ducks.  Oklahoma beat out both TCU and Baylor in a league ravaged by QB injuries, while Clemson stayed perfect in the regular season to snatch the ACC title away from Florida State.  The one team that did manage to repeat as a Power 5 champ was Alabama, and they made it count, as they went on to claim a fourth national title in seven years.

I was also right that a non-QB would win the Heisman for the first time since 2009.  It wasn't any of the preseason favorites, but by season's end a running back was holding the trophy.  There was some debate over who should have won, but most people agreed that Alabama's Derrick Henry and Stanford's Christian McCaffrey were the two top contenders.  In the end, it was Henry who took home the award, but both running backs had historic seasons.  Clemson QB Deshaun Watson also had a fantastic year, leading the Tigers to a perfect 14-0 record before finally falling to Alabama in the championship game.  Watson finished 3rd in Heisman voting.

I was very wrong about Boise State going undefeated in the regular season.  Although, I was looking pretty smart after saying that their only real challenges would come in the first two weeks... until Mid-October.  They narrowly beat Washington in week 1 and then lost to BYU the following week, but followed it up with 4 straight blowout wins.  And then Utah State came along and delivered a 52 - 26 beat-down to the Broncos.  They would go on to lose a couple more, too, making this prediction a complete bust.

I give myself half credit for predicting that Notre Dame would lose at least three games, but they didn't exactly fall hilariously short of expectations.  They were a couple plays (or maybe just one play) away from creeping into the playoffs, with narrow loses to top tier teams Clemson and Stanford.  And then there was the Fiesta Bowl.

I was feeling pretty confident that Braxton Miller would score every way imaginable, after seeing him tear up Virginia Tech's defense in week 1, recording rushing and receiving touchdowns.  But he was never utilized in a way that made any kind of special teams or passing touchdowns possible.  He took quite a few snaps under center but only threw once, for a three yard completion (what, you don't remember that doozy of a play?).  And Miller never lined up deep to return a punt or kickoff.  He made plenty of electric plays, but this prediction was ultimately no good.

Record: 2.5 - 2.5
Overall 2015 record: 30 - 60
Overall record (2014 - 2015): 67 - 118

Second and 2: Predicting the future!

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Alabama misses the playoff

Most people believe that the Crimson Tide will continue their dominance in college football and make the playoffs for the third straight year (if not win it all).  But I think this is finally the year that Alabama has a bit of a down year.  It has to happen sooner or later, right??  They win the SEC but get left out after suffering two losses.

B1G Bold Prediction: Michigan Regresses

"Remember how great Rich Rodriguez was at Michigan?" is something you'll never hear anyone outside of Columbus say.  And yet, he's the only UM coach to have a better record in their second year than their first since Gary Moeller did it 25 years ago.  Granted, that stat is a bit misleading because of Lloyd Carr's long tenure in Ann Arbor.  Still, I think the hype around the maize and blue this year is a bit premature, and that they will actually take a (small) step back in year 2 under Harbaugh.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU has a quarterback and running back both eclipse 1000 yards

Ohio State hasn't had a QB/RB duo rush for 1000 yards each since 2013, when Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde terrorized defenses.  But this year, I think there is definite potential to do it again with J.T. Barrett and Mike Weber.  We've already seen what Barrett can do when given the chance, and this year he won't have to worry about looking over his shoulder.  As for Weber, he's drawn comparisons to Hyde, despite being a bit smaller in size.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Group of Five team makes the playoff

If Houston pulls off the upset against Oklahoma in week 1, then all of a sudden this becomes a real possibility.  If not?  Well... there's always Boise State... There aren't too many plausible candidates outside of those two, but who knows?

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: People disagree with CFP Committee's top 4

Both of the previous seasons in the playoff era have ended with fans calmly reviewing the final rankings, taking a sip of tea, and quietly stating "Well, those seem most appropriate and fair.  This is a splendid set of rankings with which I don't disagree in the slightest.  The selection and ordering is both logical and accurate."

Third and 4: Lessons learned from year 2 of the CFP

The second edition of the College Football Playoff has built on what the first year taught us, and now we're starting to get a better idea of what it takes to make the final four.  It reinforced an idea that any sane follower of the sport always knew to be true: if you play in a Power 5 conference and go undefeated, you'll get a shot.  We've had two such teams in the playoff era: Florida State in 2014 and Clemson last year.  Although the Seminoles dropped as low as 4th in the rankings, and finished 3rd in the committee's final vote, they were never really in danger of missing the big dance.  Still, that didn't stop the ubiquitous voices of the internet from wondering if maybe an undefeated Power 5 team could be left out of the playoffs.  The musings seemed even more justified when Florida State was cracked apart like a pair of crab legs by Oregon in the Rose Bowl.  But Clemson's impressive 14-0 run and competitive match with Alabama in the championship seems to show that the FSU of 2014 was more of the exception, than the rule.

Where it gets more interesting is when you look at one-loss teams.  Both years we've had a lone undefeated team and five one-loss teams coming out of championship week.  That meant that two of the one-loss teams got left out.  But how did the committee decide which two to ditch?  The most obvious explanation is that they chose the outright conference champions.  Both times, that seemed to work out cleanly (though Baylor and TCU fans might disagree).  In 2015, the two teams excluded were Iowa and Ohio State, neither of which won their conference, and both lost to Michigan State, B1G champ and representative in the playoff.  And in 2014, the losers were the aforementioned Bears and Horned Frogs, who shared the Big 12 title.  That's a little more of a grey area, but when you have an undefeated squad and three outright one-loss champs, who each played an additional game against quality competition, the choice seems straightforward.  But are they really getting the four best teams?

Heather Dinich from ESPN wrote an article recently delving into this topic, asking whether the committee should be picking the best teams or the most deserving.  But it's a pointless question.  Both are subjective measurements and when it comes to picking the best, it may not be clear until after the dust of the postseason settles.  It's easy in retrospect to say that TCU was better than Florida State in 2014, or that Stanford was better than Michigan State last year.  But could you have really justified swapping these teams in either case?  The answer is no.

Here's what we can say with confidence:  If you're going to lose a game, make it early on and to someone good (but not too good, unless it's in out-of-conference play).  TCU, Ohio State, and Iowa saw what happened when you lose to someone too good.  Of the six one-loss teams that made the playoff over these first two years, the average win percentage of the team that beat them (before postseason) was .603.  The four one-loss teams that were left out?  They lost to teams with an average win percentage of .840.  So much for the benefit of having a "quality loss" (a term I hate, by the way).  Really, what it comes down to is making sure you win your conference.  Of course, the only real surefire way to make the playoff?  Win all your games.

Fourth down: Time to punt!