College Football 2015 Bold Predictions

Last year I managed a 37 - 58 record in my bold predictions, and I hope to do better this year.  Let's kick things off with my overall bold predictions for the 2015 season.

1. We will see new faces at the top of at least 4 of the 5 power conferences

The defending champions of each Power Five conference have been dominant in recent years, but I wouldn't be shocked to see most of them come up short in 2015, for various reasons. Oregon has won the Pacific conference four out of the last six seasons, but they face a tough challenge this year in replacing Marcus Mariota and other key playmakers.  For the sake of this prediction, I am considering Baylor the 2014 Big 12 champs (they would have been under this year's rules).  And make no mistake - they might do it again in 2015.  The one team standing in the way is the one they shared the title with last year: TCU.  I think the Horned Frogs avenge their lone loss from 2014 with a victory over the Bears to snatch away the conference crown.  Florida State has won three straight ACC titles but lost Heisman-winner Jameis Winston to the draft and looked somewhat shaky already, despite a 13-1 record in 2014.  Alabama also faces a major rebuilding year, while many other SEC teams appear on the rise.  Ohio State has by far the best chances to repeat as a Power Five conference winner.  But they still have to get by a formidable week 1 opponent in Virginia Tech, and Big Ten foes Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan, to name a few.  Expect to be surprised at who emerges atop the rankings by the time playoff season rolls around, that's all I'm saying.

2. A non-QB wins the Heisman for the first time since 2009

The last Heisman winner who wasn't a quarterback was Alabama running back Mark Ingram in 2009.  You have to go back an additional four ten years to find another non-QB winner.  In other words, it's really rare for anyone other than a quarterback to win the most prestigious individual award in college football, especially with the rising popularity of offensive styles that revolve around the QB.  But there are a few pretty good running backs and wide receivers out there that have a shot to take home the hardware this year, including a certain Ohio State tailback who tore through some of the nation's top defenses in the Buckeyes' 2014 postseason championship run.

3. Boise State goes undefeated in regular season

Last year, the Broncos finished off a 12-2 season with an impressive win over Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl.  They have a favorable schedule in 2015, and a 12-0 start should be a real possibility.  Their toughest tests come early, with match-ups against Washington and BYU in weeks 1 and 2, respectively.  If they make it to week 3 unscathed, look for them to finish the regular season with a perfect record, and most likely handle whomever they would face in the MWC Championship Game.  Whether that would be enough to earn a playoff spot (and how they would fare if they did) remains to be seen.

4. Notre Dame falls hilariously short of expectations (again), loses at least three games

Many have the Fighting Irish pegged as a top-10 team, even a playoff contender.  But countless times I've seen the hype for this team turn out to be just that - hype.  Just like last year, I think Notre Dame looks strong at the outset but eventually collapses, loses three or more games and drops well out of the hunt for a national title.

5. Braxton Miller scores every way imaginable

The Ohio State QB-turned-receiver will show everyone why he's still the most dynamic player in the country, by scoring at least one touchdown in every one of these categories: rushing, receiving, passing, and special teams (kick/punt return).  You've been warned, America.

The Race Director's Guide to Alienating and Discouraging Runners

Ask any runner: there are a lot of bad races out there.  Between poor organization, lack of communication, and logistical nightmares, there are countless ways to turn a running event into a miserable disaster.  And yet, so many race directors insist on putting time and effort into their races in order to provide a fun and positive experience - which is absurd, because everyone knows running should be a grueling, agonizing sport that gives no one enjoyment.  This guide is intended for these "good" race organizers, to give them a set of rules to follow in order to hopefully make their races a bit more terrible and a lot less successful.

Pre-race communication: nah

Don't have a website.  Runners want to work hard, why make it easy?  If you must have a website, include as few details as possible.  Send numerous emails with conflicting information.  The race will start sometime between 6 AM and 10 AM, at someplace.  There will be water stops somewhere.  Maybe.  Keep those runners on their toes, I've heard that's good for them.

Overcharge, overcharge, then overcharge some more

How else will people know it's a serious event without a serious price tag?  You might be giving some of it to charity, possibly, so they won't mind paying a little extra for that t-shirt and banana and pain.  Raise the price exponentially as the event date nears, with same-day registration reaching an amount so staggering it would make Mr. Burns cry.  I would say to charge an arm and a leg, but runners will probably need most of their limbs to participate in your race.

The expo should be bigger than the race

The only thing runners like more than agony is stuff that will later cause them agony, and the best is if you can combine the two.  So, cram as many vendors into as small a room as possible and then carve out a 2-foot-wide path that winds around all of them.  Only have a few people handling registration and packet pick-up, so that standing in line at the expo becomes an endurance event in itself.  Participants will thank you for giving them one last brutally draining challenge before the big race.

Logistics are for losers

If it's a point-to-point course, one or two buses for transporting runners to the start ought to be plenty.  Twelve-thousand participants can share twelve porta-potties (it's not like everyone would have to go at the same time, right?).  Waiting in line as the start time creeps up will create a sense of urgency that will greatly aid any runner.  When it's time to start the race, casually say: "Okay, go," without warning.

Turn the race into an adventure!

Runners love to explore!  Keep directional markers on the course at a minimum so participants can find their own way to the finish line.  Volunteers may or may not even know the right way to go!  Listen to them at your own risk, runners.  Make sure the race crosses or follows many busy roads.  Dodging traffic will up the excitement factor and ensure only the best and most agile runners finish.

Measure once and cut... once?

Getting the distance exactly right when you're talking about a winding 10, 13.1, or even 26.2 mile race is pretty tricky.  So it's no big deal if you're off by one or two miles.  If it's short, runners will be pleasantly surprised to have the anguish end sooner than usual.  If it's long, well, they came there to run, didn't they?  They probably won't notice such a small discrepancy anyway.

Food and water should have to be earned

Only have enough post-race refreshments for the top one-third of finishers or so.  This will motivate those other slowpokes to get better.  Want that stale quarter-bagel piece?  Run faster next time.  I mean, do they really even need it, considering how unbelievably long it took them to finish?

That's it!

These are all the tips you will need to put on an absolutely horrible race.  Follow these and you're bound to have many runners, as masochistic as they are, lining up around the corner!

How an Expanded Playoff Could Ruin College Football

Let me start by saying that I support playoff expansion.  I believe that it's inevitable and, as long as there are five major conferences,  necessary.  I won't delve into that debate, except to point out that eventual 2014 CFP champion and world beater Ohio State was nearly left out of the playoff field.  Take a minute to think about that.

While you were pondering that absurd notion, Ezekiel Elliot just scored another rushing touchdown against Oregon.

Now that you're on board with playoff expansion, let's get to the real issue at hand.  To me, the bigger question to me is not "if" or even "when" but "how".  The "how" of CFP expansion is something that could make or break the sport as we know it.

I've heard about a hundred different ideas for how to expand, so let's just focus on one popular variant from Michael Rosenberg of SI, outlined here.

The proposal goes like this:  Expand the field to 6 or 8 teams.  The champion of each Power 5 conference gets an automatic bid.  The remaining spots are at-large.  If we go with 6 teams, #1 and #2 get a first round bye.  If we have 8 teams, #1 through #4 get first round home-field advantage.   The idea is to make it more similar to the NFL's predictable playoff system.

I see the appeal.  It's simple and logical.  You know exactly what you need to do to reach the playoffs:  If you win your conference, you're in; If you don't, you still have a shot, but nothing is guaranteed.  There are a number of problems, though, and I think the best way to highlight those is to examine how this would have played out last season.

With a 6 team field, you would have had this year's final four (SEC champ Alabama, PAC-12 champ Oregon, ACC champ Florida State, and Big Ten champ Ohio State) plus Baylor and TCU (the Big 12 would be forced to select one to be the league champion, but it's logical to think that the other team would have earned the at-large bid).  With 8 teams, you would have the same 6 as above, plus Mississippi State and Michigan State (most likely), as they were the only other remaining Power 5 teams with less than 3 losses.  Both scenarios look great, right?

But, let's try something to illustrate a point.  Rewind back to November 29, 2014.  It's rivalry week, just 8 days before the CFP committee makes their final selections.  #1 Alabama faces Auburn in the Iron Bowl, #2 Oregon takes on Oregon State in the Civil War, #4 Florida State plays bitter rival Florida, and #5 Ohio State takes the field against Michigan in The Game.

For these teams, the stakes are higher than ever.  Win and they move one step closer to the playoffs, lose and they're all but eliminated from contention.  At least, that's how it is in the current system.  Now imagine we have the expanded system in place.  In the case of all of the aforementioned teams, they had clinched their division at the start of these games and, in turn, a spot in their respective conference championship.  So, any or all of them could have lost to their rival and still gone on to win their conference and make the playoffs via automatic bid.  The top 6 or 8 would essentially look the same (except for seeding, perhaps) regardless of the outcome of these games.

All of a sudden, rivalry week goes from one of the most exciting aspects of the college football season to a potential snooze-fest.  Sure, for the followers of teams involved in a specific rivalry the appeal remains; most die-hard fans will tell you a rivalry game trumps all else, and standings pretty much go out the window when they take the field.  But let's be honest, the standings still do matter, even to the most insanely passionate fan, perhaps more so if you think about it.  If any one of Auburn, Oregon State, Florida, or Michigan had pulled off the upset and knocked their respective rival out of the playoffs, don't you think it would have been that much sweeter for them, and that much harder for the other team to stomach, knowing a national championship was potentially on the line?  But with an expanded playoff the underdog could win that game and still watch their foe hoist the playoff trophy in January.

And for college football fans around the country, it makes a world of difference.  Do you think these rivalry games would have the same excitement factor if they didn't have playoff implications?  The 2014 edition of the Iron Bowl had the highest ratings of any regular season college football game on ESPN.  Ever.  Do you think that still would have been the case if it had no playoff implications?  If I'm an Ohio State fan or a Baylor fan or a TCU fan, I don't really care if Auburn beats Alabama if the Tide can get in the top 6 or 8 regardless.  But in today's system, you better believe every Buckeye, Bear, and Horned Frog was tuned in, screaming "War Damn Eagle" the whole time.

Sure, seeding would still be at stake, which could be a big advantage, depending on what kind of benefits are given.  But it's just not the same as the all-or-nothing mentality of college football today.  The chaos factor is one of the best parts of the sport.  I still remember a weekend in early December, 2007, when #1 Missouri and #2 West Virginia entered games against Oklahoma and Pitt, respectively, looking to clinch spots in the championship game.  In the span of a few hours both #1 and #2 lost and were out of title contention.  The result was pure madness, as multiple teams vied for the top two spots.  It was glorious fun that only college football could provide.  Please tell me the last time week 17 of the NFL schedule was that exciting or memorable.  I'll wait.

Speaking of NFL's week 17, could you imagine if coaches started treating rivalry week like that pathetic excuse for a football Sunday?  It might seem unfathomable now for coaches to sit key players in rivalry games, but imagine if the unthinkable happens and your team loses a star to injury in a game that essentially doesn't affect your chances at a national title.  Could you really blame the coach if the following year he errs on the side of caution and rests up some guys, especially any that are already dealing with lingering injuries?  Sure, it sounds awful, but playing your superhuman quarterback (who is actually 100% human and has gotten beat up all season) might secure a win against your rival but end up costing you a shot at a championship.  Remember: not everyone has a third-string quarterback who can step in for his first career start and do this.  The coach in such a situation would essentially be faced with the decision of playing to beat the rival or playing for a national championship.  The idea of any coach, player, or fan having to even consider such a dilemma is absolutely nauseating.

There's also the possibility that a conference champion would have no business even coming near a playoff.  In 2012, a five-loss Wisconsin team won the Big Ten.  The same year, 6-6 UCLA made the PAC-12 title game (and then got smashed by Oregon).  Of course, both cases were only possible because of NCAA sanctions against other teams, but it's happened before and it will happen again, and these are just the most extreme examples.  I don't know about you, but I want to avoid seeing a team with 3 or 4 losses getting hammered in the playoffs when a more worthy 1 or 2 loss team sits at home and watches.

Then, there is the matter of non-conference games.  With automatic bids to conference champs, the importance of such games goes way down.  Sure, coaches might be more willing to schedule tougher opponents, but at what cost?  Do I really care to watch a top-ten non-conference clash of the titans if both teams can go on and win their conference and get in the playoffs automatically anyway?  And while it is certainly possible to still make it into the playoffs in the current system after losing an early non-conference game (just ask the Buckeyes), the perspective at the time of the game is vastly different when you know a conference title earns an automatic berth.

Automatic bids just take away too much of the uncertainty that makes college football so exciting.  That's why the proposed solution (or any solution) which has conference champs getting a free pass just won't work.  For now, the current 4-team system will do just fine.  We will have to expand eventually, and I have some ideas for how to do it, which I will revisit in another post.  But whatever happens, the importance of rivalry week and non-conference games must be preserved.  There's too much tradition, and frankly, too much fun involved in both to devalue them in any way.  It won't be predictable, but if you want predictability, watch the NFL.  Me?  I'll take the unadulterated chaos of college football.