First, a look at how I did on my bold predictions for week 1:
1. Oklahoma State upsets Florida State.
This one hurt, because Oklahoma State really did have a chance to beat the Seminoles. The young Cowboys gave it their all and kept it close right up to the end. They were one more big play or one less mistake from making me look really smart. But in the end, Florida State triumphed, 37 - 31.
2. Three or more FBS teams fall to FCS opponents.
So close, and yet, so far. Of the four teams I put on upset alert, two lost and the other two scraped by with a combined margin of victory of only six points. Most notable is North Dakota State's complete domination of Iowa State (ND State's fifth straight victory over an FBS squad). Other close FBS/FCS games: E Michigan over Morgan State (31 - 28), South Florida over Western Carolina (36 - 31), Texas Tech over Central Arkansas (42 - 35), and Iowa over Northern Iowa (31 - 23). But close doesn't cut it, which means my prediction fell one short. Sigh.
3. J.T. Barrett produces 250+ yards of offense in his debut as Ohio State's starting QB.
Finally, an accurate pick! J.T. Barrett came through in a big way for the Buckeyes, leading them to a 34-17 victory over Navy. The entire offense started slow, going into halftime with only six points. But after an 80-yard TD pass to Devin Smith, things started to open up for Ohio State. Barrett finished with 226 yards passing and 50 rushing, putting his total at 276 yards.
4. Auburn's plan for Nick Marshall will involve him missing only one series against Arkansas.
I admit I was dead wrong with this one. Jeremy Johnson filled in well for Marshall, so that may have been a factor. The biggest difference for the Tigers in the second half was their defensive play, not the QB switch. Regardless, coach Malzahn kept Marshall on the sideline the entire first half, making my prediction a complete bust.
Yeah, he didn't do that... again.
Ouch. 2 - 3 record in my first week. Hopefully I can improve on that this week. Now, some other takeaways from week 1:
Todd Gurley is an absolute beast and will be a Heisman contender this year if he continues playing like he did on Saturday
Gurley set a school record of 293 all-purpose yards, including an electrifying 100+ yard kick-off return for a touchdown. He added 198 yards rushing. Opposing defenses will have a hard time stopping him this year, even if they load the box. It's still early, but if any non-QB has a shot at the Heisman, it could be the Junior running back out of Georgia.
Texas A&M will be fine this season without Johnny Manziel
Kenny Hill kept the Aggie offense rolling without missing a beat. Not only did he fill in magnificently for the recently departed Manziel, he broke his single-game passing record. If he can continue to post numbers like that he will also enter the Heisman conversation.
Wisconsin can run, but the Badgers need improved quarterback play to compete in the Big Ten
The Badgers posted 268 rushing yards against the Tigers, but quarterback Tanner McEvoy went 8 of 24 for 50 yards in his first start. Once LSU adjusted their defense to stop the run, Wisconsin was unable to move the ball. That, combined with a second-half collapse on special teams and defense gave LSU the win in a marquee non-conference match-up. Wisconsin will have to get a reliable passing game going to compliment their running game if they hope to have any chance to play for a Big Ten title this year.
The play-off race is wide open at this point
Early front-runners in the national title hunt looked very beatable. Florida State, Alabama, and UCLA showed their imperfections in close wins over un-ranked non-conference opponents. Ohio State had a slow start before pulling away late vs Navy. Auburn went into halftime tied with SEC bottom-feeder Arkansas and needed second-half defensive adjustments to take the win. It's only week 1 so some of these teams may just need a week or two to start coming together. Only time will tell who is a real contender and who is ranked based on pure hype. Which brings me to my final point...
The current rankings are bogus, but really don't matter anyway
I have to admit, as an Ohio State fan I was a little peeved when I first saw the new AP rankings come out. The Buckeyes dropped three spots, from #5 to #8. Now, I could argue the reasons that this is absurd. I could point to a 34 - 17 victory over a talented Navy team which many experts think may win 10 or 11 games this season. I could compare this win to Florida State's and Alabama's lackluster performances (they didn't budge in the rankings). Or Michigan State's complete domination of FCS foe Jacksonville State (yippee). Don't get me started on Oregon's and Oklahoma's blow-out wins over teams who each racked up 4 wins last year (Navy had 9). None of those teams fell in the rankings (Michigan State moved up). But I'm not going to do that (OK, yeah, I guess I already did). Because these rankings don't matter, especially this early. As long as Ohio State (or whoever your team may be) is still undefeated, arguing about the rankings is pointless. Any unbeaten team (from one of the Power Five conferences) is virtually guaranteed to make the playoffs. Additionally, the selection committee will have their own criteria which (hopefully) will be totally separate from other sets of rankings. So this is the first and last time I will talk about rankings, at least until the end of the season, before the final rankings are released.
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