College Football Three and Out: Week 12

First and 2: Recapping week 11

Top-10 Bold Prediction: USC upsets Washington

Washington was just one of a slew of highly ranked teams to go down on Saturday.  The question is, if the Huskies bounce back and still win the Pac 12 with only one loss on their resume, can they still make the playoffs? History would tell us yes, but this is shaping up to be a strange season, and 2 years with the playoff committee doesn't give us a lot of data.

B1G Bold Prediction: Iowa shocks Michigan

Well, for the second straight year the Wolverines found a way to screw over the Buckeyes by losing. I guess that is their greatest weapon against Ohio State.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU returns a punt for TD

There were no special teams or defensive scores for the Buckeyes, but the offense really didn't need any help.  Ohio State won 62 - 3 for the second week in a row, while chaos erupted elsewhere in the college football landscape. The upsets mostly help OSU, save for the aforementioned loss by Michigan.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Bears rebound to beat Sooners

Baylor continues to plummet, as Oklahoma handily defeated them and still appears firmly in control in the Big 12 race.  More bad news came for the Bears this week when they learned that QB Seth Russell will undergo season-ending surgery on his ankle. I can't help but feel sorry for the guy, especially since he also missed a large portion of last season due to a neck injury.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Someone punts in Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State

There were actually several punts in this one, but many more touchdowns.  And if it wasn't for a missed PAT that would have tied the game with less than 2 minutes left, there would have been even more scores.  But as it went, the Cowboys survived, 45-44.

Week 11 record: 3 - 2

2016 record: 24 - 31

Second and 3: Predicting the future!

Top-10 Bold Prediction: West Virginia defeats Oklahoma

I don't see a repeat of the chaos we saw last week in the top 10, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Sooners stumble in a night game at Morgantown.  Either way, one of these teams will lose any chance at a playoff spot Saturday.  WVU by 3.

B1G Bold Prediction: Michigan loses again

The Wolverines will likely turn to backup QB John O'Korn when Indiana comes to Ann Arbor, with rumors circulating that starter Wilton Speight suffered a broken collarbone in the loss to Iowa. Harbaugh (in true Harbaugh form) refuses to comment one way or the other on the matter, but has admitted that Speight is questionable for Saturday. O'Korn has experience, but it remains to be seen how exactly the change might affect the Michigan offense. Perhaps the Hoosiers can pull off the upset, 23-20.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Spartans stay within one score into 4th quarter

Michigan State's football team is a mess this year. Their victory over Rutgers last week was their first win in conference play, and they won't make a bowl game no matter what happens in their last two games.  Vegas has the Buckeyes as 22.5 point favorites, but there are a lot of reasons to expect a much closer result.  Sparty obviously has talent on the roster, as they won the Big Ten and competed participated in the playoffs last year. They may have lost some key pieces from that 2015 squad, but still returned a handful of starters on both sides of the ball. A competitive game against the Wolverines further supports the notion that they have been playing below their potential. If there are two games you can guarantee MSU will be ready for, regardless of the state of their program, it's Michigan and Ohio State.  Expect a tough, physical game that drags into the fourth quarter. A late touchdown seals the win for OSU, though,  31 - 17.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Oklahoma State easily beats TCU

For some reason, TCU is favored in this game. TCU is not good. They may have just beaten Baylor (who is also not good) by 40 points, but let's look at what happened before that: they lost at home to Texas Tech, scoring only 17 points in regulation against the nation's worst defense.  They got crushed by West Virginia.  They needed a fourth-quarter rally to barely beat a Kansas team whose only win came in week 1 against Rhode Island. They were thoroughly dominated by Oklahoma (despite a close final score). Before that was a win over Iowa State (yippee) and a soft non-conference schedule that included a loss to Arkansas.  Oklahoma State isn't great, but they win this game easily, 43 - 24.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Michigan players learn how to tackle properly

Michigan team captain Chris Wormley trucks an old Iowa fan after the game pic.twitter.com/mHod2JOlLe

— Heavens! (@HeavensHawkeye) November 15, 2016

He stays high, doesn't wrap up, I mean come on - this is anything but textbook technique.  The Wolverines will have to tackle better to have a chance against Indiana.

Third and 4: Your Buckeye rooting guide for the rest of the season

We're approaching the end of the regular season, and things are anything but clear for the Buckeyes. What is apparent though is that Ohio State does not control its own destiny, certainly in the B1G but possibly also in the playoff race.  They may be ranked #2 currently, but there's no guarantee they'll be in the top 4 by the end of the year, even if they win out.  So, who should we root for (other than OSU, obviously) and who should we root against in these final weeks?  Let's start with the "againsts", as they are a bit simpler:

Root against...

Penn State

This is a no-brainer and the most important outside factor.  If PSU loses another regular season Big Ten game, the Buckeyes will gain control of their own destiny.  If that happens, you can throw out the rest of this list because it won't matter what anyone else does. If Penn State wins and ends up representing the East Division in the B1G title game, we would still want to root against them as they would appear to be in better position than Wisconsin (or Nebraska) to jump us because of the head-to-head advantage.

Remaining schedule: at Rutgers, vs Michigan State, possible B1G title game

Washington

Another loss for the Huskies means the Pac 12 winner will have at least two losses.  Depending on who that is, it might result in the conference missing the playoff again, freeing up a spot in the top 4.

Remaining schedule: vs Arizona State, at Washington State, possible Pac 12 title game

Clemson

A second loss seems unlikely, but imagine if the Tigers stumble in the ACC championship game. That would leave only Louisville as a potential representative for their conference.

Remaining schedule: at Wake Forest, vs South Carolina, possible ACC title game

Louisville

Bye-bye birdies!  Someone should send Tom Herman a fruit basket.  Did you know he founded MENSA?

Alabama

With Auburn losing to Georgia, we're now safe to root against the Tide in all of their remaining games, including the SEC title game. A loss there could doom the SEC. Wouldn't that be lovely?  Don't hold your breath though...

Remaining schedule: vs Chattanooga, vs Auburn, SEC title game

Florida (except against Bama)

Might as well hope the Gators drop another one, just to make sure Bama's opponent out of the East is certifiable trash. This is not only possible, but likely, with games left at LSU and at FSU.  If they lose to LSU, 3-loss Tennessee will take their place in Atlanta (assuming the Vols take care of business vs Missouri and Vanderbilt).

Remaining schedule: at LSU, at Florida State, possible SEC title game

Now for the other side.

Root for...

Wisconsin

The Badgers remain one of the Buckeyes' signature victories. Any loss by Wisconsin dilutes that win. And if it ends up as Badgers vs Nittany Lions in the Big Ten title game, we definitely have a better argument to stay ranked ahead of a B1G champ Wisconsin team, due to the difference in head-to-head results.

Remaining schedule: at Purdue, vs Minnesota, possible B1G title game

Oklahoma

Same goes for the Sooners.  The better they look, the better Ohio State looks.  If they win the Big 12, it's good news for us.  If they don't win their conference, we should hope for another West Virginia loss. Another loss for Oklahoma State wouldn't hurt either, but it seems improbable that both those teams would drop another game and Oklahoma would not win the Big 12.

Remaining schedule: at West Virginia, vs Oklahoma State

Nebraska

Seeing a trend here?  We want our ranked opponents to stay ranked.  If the Cornhuskers make it to Indy instead of the Badgers, we should root for them over Penn State.

Remaining schedule: vs Maryland, at Iowa, possible B1G title game

Michigan (against Indiana)

Sorry, no, I just can't.  Nope.  I can't tell you to root for the Wolverines.  It would be in the Buckeyes' best interest for Michigan to come to the Horseshoe still ranked 3rd, but I will not root for them.  Nor will I tell you to.

Remaining schedule: vs Indiana, at Ohio State

Northwestern

The Wildcats may not be ranked (nor will they be if they win out), but with games against Minnesota and Illinois left (two teams we don't play this year) it can only help our strength of schedule for Fitzgerald's guys to finish on the right side of .500.

Remaining schedule: at Minnesota, vs Illinois

Tulsa

No one is pretending that Tulsa is a signature win, but the Golden Hurricane is 7-3 on the year, with their only other losses coming from Houston and Navy.  If they can finish 9-3 it would provide another slight SoS boost.

Remaining schedule: at UCF, vs Cincinnati

Bowling Green

Every little bit helps, right?

Remaining schedule: vs Buffalo

That about covers it. For match-ups not involving any of the teams I mentioned, I would say root against the higher ranked team as a rule. In particular, root against Pac 12 / Big 12 teams currently hanging around in the low teens.  But in general, I like the Buckeyes' chances if they win out, regardless of what happens with Penn State and the rest of the top 25.

Fourth down: It's payback time. Take no prisoners.