College Football Three and Out: Week 11

First and 10: Recapping week 10

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Alabama stumbles in Death Valley

The SEC West heavy-hitters were locked in a scoreless tie heading into the fourth quarter, but the Crimson Tide eventually came out on top in a 10-0 victory.  Their last real test of the regular season will come in the final week vs Auburn.

B1G Bold Prediction: Northwestern handles tired Badgers

It was another slug-fest for Wisconsin, but they managed to secure the 21-7 win and take control in the B1G West race.  They also get a break until their regular season finale, as they close out the year with matches against Illinois, Purdue, and a big rivlary game against the Gophers, who have quietly earned a 7-2 record.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Nebraska held to 7 points or fewer in 4th quarter

Forget about the fourth quarter, the Cornhuskers were limited to just 3 points the entire game.  The offense came alive as well, as the Buckeyes scored 62 points and didn't punt once.  The blowout was the second largest ever between top-10 teams.  If Ohio State can execute at the same level the rest of the way (or at least against Michigan and into the postseason), Meyer will have a shot to add another title to his resume.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Cal derails Washington in Berkeley

The Bears kept pace with the Huskies for most of the first half, but fell behind in a stretch from the middle of the second through the first few minutes of the quarter, of which they gave up 38 unanswered points. With Texas A&M losing, the victory allowed Washington to move up to the #4 spot.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Mark May says something idiotic

First he used the expression, "as quick as a hiccup." Then he said that Nebraska would beat Ohio State in overtime. I'm sure there was more stupidity that I missed, too.

Week 10 record: 2 - 3

2016 record: 21 - 29

Second and 2: Predicting the future!

Top-10 Bold Prediction: USC upsets Washington

I'm picking on the Huskies again.  But after starting 1-3, the Trojans have looked like one of the best teams in the Pac 12.  I think they deliver a big blow to Washington's playoff hopes with a win in Seattle.  USC by 2.

B1G Bold Prediction: Iowa shocks Michigan

This would be potentially bad news for the Buckeyes.  Let's hope the Wolverines don't screw this one up.  See my third down analysis for what could happen if I get this prediction right, and what it means for Ohio State.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU returns a punt for TD

Dontre Wilson has handled punt return duties for Ohio State for what seems like forever, and he's always been kind of a high risk / high reward player in that role. But this year, it's seemed more like high risk / no reward, and it finally prompted Meyer to make a change. It sounds like Samuel will get first crack at it but I could see some other young guys getting a shot as well. I think we see the benefit right away, as one of them takes it back for six. It will just be icing on the cake, though, as the Buckeyes coast to a 52 - 16 win.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Bears rebound to beat Sooners

Baylor has lost two in a row, including a 62 - 22 demolition at the hands of TCU last week.  Their only hope to keep their Big 12 title hopes alive is to take down Oklahoma this Saturday.  It's a long shot, but who knows?  Maybe Baylor wins, 48 - 47?

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Someone punts in Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State

The over/under on this game is 110.

Third and 1: Can Buckeyes make playoff without B1G title?

Chances are, if Ohio State wins out, they'd represent the East in the Big Ten Championship. But there is a scenario in which they wouldn't get that shot, even if they finish 11-1.  If Michigan loses to either Iowa or Indiana and Penn State wins out, then a Buckeye victory over the Wolverines would result in a two-way tie between OSU and PSU. The Nittany Lions' head-to-head win would act as the tiebreaker, sending them to Indy.  If that sounds familiar, it's because the same thing happened to the Buckeyes last year, and we all know how that turned out. But do Ohio State's playoff hopes vanish if this scenario plays out again? Let's examine the situation.

First, let's assume that Alabama, Clemson, and Washington all win out (we'll revisit the other side of that coin later).  Those 3 would be locks for the top 3 spots, having perfect records and conference titles to their names.  But what team gets the final spot?  There are a few possibilities for who might challenge the Buckeyes for it:

The Big Ten champion

The greatest threat might come from within OSU's own conference, as we saw happen last year.  The biggest difference being that last season there were two 1-loss teams playing in Indianapolis. In this scenario the B1G winner would have at least two losses. Wisconsin is best positioned in terms of its current ranking, but the Bucks have a head-to-head victory over the Badgers, in Madison nonetheless. We know the committee loves conference champions, but would that title really trump a better record and head-to-head? I would think not, but that's uncharted territory.  Then there's Penn State. If the Nittany Lions win in Indy it creates a tough spot for OSU. The loss in Happy Valley would make it really hard for the committee to keep the Buckeyes ranked ahead of a 11-2 PSU conference champion. But is Penn State really playoff material? Their victory might result in the Big Ten missing the playoffs altogether. If anyone else from the West makes it to Indy and beats the Nittany Lions (such as Nebraska or Minnesota), the Bucks would be in good shape.  The Cornhuskers' destruction in Columbus likely ended any potential playoff push, and the Gophers don't have a strong enough resume to make the playoff (they're currently unranked), even if they win out.

Louisville

The Cardinals would be in a similar place as the Buckeyes if this scenario materializes, having a single loss but no conference or division title.  But OSU's superior strength of schedule would probably give them the nod.  The committee already has Ohio State ahead of Louisville, and the Bucks still have what will be a highly ranked Michigan team on the schedule (even if they lose a game, they'd still probably be in the top ten when they come to Columbus).  The best team Louisville still has to play is Houston.

The Big 12 champion

If Oklahoma wins out, they would have a shot at the playoff, but I don't think they could leapfrog the Buckeyes.  OSU dominated the Sooners in Norman, and the Big 12 is pretty unanimously viewed as the weakest Power 5 conference this year.  West Virginia also has a path to the playoff, if they can navigate the rest of their schedule not only unscathed, but winning in dominating fashion.  Still, I don't know if they would surpass Ohio State, because of the aforementioned perception of their conference.  That, and they played teams a combined 7 - 11 out of conference (and Youngstown State).

Auburn

What would happen if Alabama doesn't win out?  If Auburn beats the Tide, the Tigers would win the SEC West (assuming they beat Georgia this weekend).  If they go on to win in Atlanta, they would have a decent argument to reach the top four, like it or not.  Could Alabama stay in the top 4, with only one loss?  It's certainly possible.  The prospect of two teams from a single conference getting into a four-team playoff is ludicrous to me, but it's still too early in the playoff era to really know how the committee would treat some of these fringe cases.

In conclusion, I think if the Buckeyes can finish the regular season with just one loss, they'll be in pretty good shape regardless of what Penn State and Michigan do.  And if Clemson or Washington loses, it would make the path even clearer, especially if the loss happens in a conference title game (or against Washington State for the Huskies).  But obviously, they would love to be able to claim a Big Ten title and leave no doubt that they're one of the four best teams in the country.  For now, the Bucks just have to stay focused on the next game, and keep on winning.

Fourth down: fourth down? What's a fourth down?