College Football Bowl Season Recap

Long overdue, but here's how I did on my bowl predictions:

1. Hark! The Houston Cougars win

Tom Herman made a statement in his first year at Houston, and that statement was: watch out for the Cougars.  Houston dominated Florida State through the first half, and held on to win 38 - 24 in a game that wasn't even really that close.  The victory resulted in a

2. On the first day of '16 OK State will surely see a victory over coach Freeze

The only thing Oklahoma State saw was Chad Kelly scoring touchdowns. The Rebels rolled to a 48 - 20 victory in the Sugar Bowl, which should help erase memories from last year's self-destruction against TCU in the Peach Bowl.

3. Do you see what I see?  Fifteen, fifteen, gashing Notre Dame; With another two hundred in a game;  With another two hundred in a game

Zeke had a big game, but it wasn't quite enough to make this prediction good.  A depleted Notre Dame defense just had no answers when it came to slowing down #15 or #16, as the Buckeyes moved the ball with relative ease all game long.  They found some success on offense, especially with star Joey Bosa ejected from the game for a targeting call in the first quarter.  It was a disappointing end to a stellar career, but I couldn't disagree with the call (whether or not the rule is good as it stands is another matter and not one I want to delve into at the moment). Still, Ohio State cruised to a big win, 44 - 28.

4. I'm dreaming of a Hawkeye bowl win, just like the ones I used to know;  Where the linemen clash and the running backs dash, to score long touchdowns against their foe

I was indeed dreaming, as it was clear very early on that Iowa stood no chance against Stanford. It was particularly evident every time Heisman runner-up McCaffrey touched the ball (which was often).  He set numerous Rose Bowl records as the Cardinal demolished the Hawkeyes, 45 - 16.  The one area that Iowa was victorious, however, was during halftime. Stanford's marching band was an embarrassment that didn't even belong on the field.  Forget the fact that they seem to try to offend someone every time they get the spotlight (this time they went after farmers in Iowa); I was simply offended by how bad they were.  They sounded awful and were about as organized as a group of escaped mental patients.  While I was disappointed by how poorly Iowa's football team represented the Big Ten, it was nothing compared to the shame Stanford and Pac-12 supporters should have felt after seeing the trash they put on the field for halftime.

5. You better watch out, you better not cry;  You better not pout, I'm telling you why; Florida's gonna score a touchdown

Yep, they did it!  What a victory for the Gators. They proved the doubters wrong, even though they lost... 41 - 7.  It was a moral victory?

College Football National Championship Recap

We already know how the title game turned out.  But what about my bold predictions?

1. Alabama defeats Clemson by two or more touchdowns

It was even closer than I expected, as the Tigers were able to move the ball pretty consistently against a stout Alabama defense.  Clemson held a 3-point lead heading into the fourth quarter, but a huge final 15 minutes for the Crimson Tide offense ended up swaying things in favor of Nick Saban's team.  Alabama scored 24 points in that last quarter, helped by a surprise on-side kick as well as a kickoff return for a touchdown.  Final score: 45 - 40.

2. Watson rushes for season-high yardage

The Clemson QB found success running and throwing against Alabama, but it wasn't quite enough.  And he really didn't come close to a season-high rushing total, with 73 yards.  But really it was special teams and a few blown coverages that doomed the Tigers.

3. The winner's margin of victory won't be as big as Buckeyes' in 2014 title game

As I predicted, it was much closer than the '14 championship game.  Clemson scored with 12 seconds left to pull within one score of the Tide, but failed to recover the ensuing on-side kick, and likely wouldn't have had enough time to score again even if they had gotten the ball back.

4. Derrick Henry goes off against Tigers, accumulating 200+ yards on the ground

He was very productive, particularly in the first half, but didn't quite reach the yardage for this prediction.  There are still plenty who think McCaffrey should have won the Heisman, I'm sure, but it's time for people to move on, whether they agree or not.

5. Fans express joyous support of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

There was no SEC chant in the stadium, probably because the Alabama football team has been good enough in recent years that they don't need to hide behind conference fandom like fans of other SEC teams do. But make no mistake, the SEC chant was heard loud and clear by anyone brave enough to venture into comment sections of sports websites in the hours and days following the title game.  I'm giving myself half credit on this one.
EDIT: Upon further review, I'm giving myself full credit for this one

National Championship record: 2 - 3
Overall record: 25.5 - 54.5

College Football National Championship Bold Predictions

1. Alabama defeats Clemson by two or more touchdowns

I went with the underdogs in round one of the playoffs, but I think the favored Crimson Tide come away with the title by a comfortable margin.  It should be a bit more competitive than both the semifinal games, with the contest staying close into the fourth quarter.  But a late Alabama touchdown gives them the win and another national championship to add to their resume.  Final score: 34 - 20.

2. Watson rushes for season-high yardage

 

 

The one thing the Tigers have going for them are the well-documented struggles of Alabama's defense when facing mobile quarterbacks.  The Clemson QB ran for a season-best 145 yards against Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, after posting previous highs against North Carolina and South Carolina in the two preceding games.  I think he tops all his performances with another big day on the ground.  He'll find some success passing, too, but ultimately it won't be enough to take down Alabama.

3. The winner's margin of victory won't be as big as Buckeyes' in 2014 title game

Ohio State dominated Oregon in a way that I don't think either team will be able to match in this year's championship.  While I expect Alabama to win in impressive fashion, they won't look as good as the Bucks did a year ago.

4. Derrick Henry goes off against Tigers, accumulating 200+ yards on the ground

You can bet that the Alabama running back is hearing the whispers (and obnoxious yelling) saying that he shouldn't have won the Heisman.  I think all the talk of McCaffrey being robbed motivates Henry to possibly his biggest game of the year, as he runs all over Clemson.

5. Fans express joyous support of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

 

 

Why wouldn't they?  In the SEC's own words, they "protect investors, maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets, and facilitate capital formation."  Sounds good to me.  And we can always count on fans of southern football programs to have abundant knowledge of complex economic principles and the ways that government agencies positively impact their lives.  At least, that's the conclusion I'm drawing based on the fact that we often hear chants of S-E-C ringing through the stadium during football games involving southern teams.  I think we might just hear some chanting on Monday as well.  Let's go market regulation!

College Football Playoff Semifinals Recap

The title game approaches, but first let's see how I did with my predictions for the semifinal round:

1. Clemson knocks off Oklahoma to stay undefeated

It was close at halftime, as the Sooners went to the locker room with a 1-point lead.  But the Tigers came out strong in the second half, shutting down Baker Mayfield and going on to score 21 unanswered points.  Deshaun Watson had a brilliant performance, as I expected, as Clemson won 37 - 17 and punched their ticket to the national championship game.

2. Michigan State triumphs over Alabama

Yeah... not quite.  The Spartans looked over-matched from start to finish.  They just couldn't seem to get anything going against a very good Alabama defense.  They had an opportunity to score before halftime before the game got out of hand, but an interception ended the drive and gave the momentum back to the Tide.  It was all downhill for MSU after that, and Alabama ended up winning 38 - 0 to setup a title game clash with Clemson.

3. CFP semifinal winners score at least 30 points fewer than last year's Ducks and Bucks

This one looked pretty good early on, as Clemson and Oklahoma were locked in a 17 - 16 battle after the first half of the Orange Bowl.  Even after the Tigers ended up winning with a score of 37 points, the prediction still had a pretty good shot with a 10 - 0 Alabama halftime lead in the Cotton Bowl .  But the Tide's four touchdowns in the second half of their victory was just enough to ruin this prediction, as Alabama and Clemson combined for 75 points in their wins, just 26 fewer than the semifinal winners of 2014.

4. Spartans hold Heisman winner Derrick Henry under 100 rushing yards

The one bright spot for Michigan State is that they were able to contain Henry even after Alabama built up a big lead.  However, their suspect secondary was torched all night by Tide QB Jake Coker.  While it didn't end up impacting the final outcome of the game, this prediction's success does lend credence to the popular notion that maybe Christian McCaffrey deserved the Heisman over Henry.

5. Orange Bowl announcers don't mention last year's 40 - 6 Russell Athletic Bowl blowout

They brought it up, if only to remind us that these weren't the same teams from a year ago.  The outcome was slightly better for Oklahoma this year, though the result was still a loss, and possibly a more painful one as it kept the Sooners from playing for a national title.

Playoff semifinals record: 2 -3
Overall record: 23.5 - 51.5

Ohio State of Mind: Fiesta Bowl vs Notre Dame

This is not a consolation prize.

This isn't where we wanted to end up, but that doesn't matter now.  If we think we can just show up and win this game, we will be greatly disappointed.  Notre Dame wants this.  Badly.  The last time the Fighting Irish beat the Buckeyes FDR was president of the United States.  A gallon of gas cost 10 cents.  Rudy would not be born for another 12 years.  Since that Notre Dame victory in 1936, Ohio State has won 3 straight in the series, including a win in the Fiesta Bowl exactly 10 years ago.  Notre Dame wants this badly.

This is not a meaningless game.

This is about defining a legacy.  This class of seniors has the opportunity to win their 50th game.  50 wins in 4 years.  No Power 5 team has ever done that before.  This might not be a playoff game but it means a lot to a bunch of guys who have poured their hearts into this team.  This isn't a championship game; it's a send-off to some special players.  Make it a good one.

This is not an insult.

We can believe that we should have been in the final four.  Or that we should have been selected by the Rose Bowl.  But when it comes down to it, we didn't win when it mattered most.  And the Fiesta Bowl vs Notre Dame is still a great game and a great opportunity and it's what we deserve.  There are over 100 FBS teams that would gladly trade places with us.  Play like we understand that and take nothing for granted.  This is a big time bowl against a big time team.  Notre Dame is two (or maybe just one) play away from being in the playoff themselves.  Don't take them lightly.

This is not the end of a disappointing season.

This is the exclamation point on the legacy of a stellar senior class.  This is a new beginning.  Win number two of a new winning streak.  The closing argument on an outstanding 2015 season.  With a victory, we build momentum to carry into the off-season and into the 2016 season, where we will strive to be even better.

Go Bucks.  Beat Notre Dame.

College Football Playoff Semifinals Bold Predictions

1. Clemson knocks off Oklahoma to stay undefeated

The Tigers are ranked #1 and hold the only perfect record in college football, but Vegas has the Sooners as 3.5-point favorites in the Orange Bowl.  News also broke yesterday that Clemson sent home 3 players for breaking team rules, including stand-out receiver Deon Cain.  But I think Deshaun Watson puts the team on his back in a gutsy performance to earn a title game bid.  Clemson beats Oklahoma, 38 - 35.

2. Michigan State triumphs over Alabama

The biggest underdog of this year's playoff is Dantonio's squad, but that's exactly where the Spartans want to be.  Michigan State has been at their best in the underdog role in recent years, and I expect no different from them on New Year's Eve.  MSU wins, 27 - 23.

3. CFP semifinal winners score at least 30 points fewer than last year's Ducks and Bucks

They say that defense wins championships, but last year Ohio State and Oregon proved that a potent offense is good enough to get you to the championship game.  The OSU and UO offenses combined for 101 points on New Year's Day of 2015, setting the bar high for this year's competitors.  I think Oklahoma and Clemson could both rack up some points, but I expect the game between Michigan State and Alabama to be fairly low-scoring.  My guess is the winner's combine for 70 or 71 points, at most.

4. Spartans hold Heisman winner Derrick Henry under 100 rushing yards

Henry has been difficult to stop this season, to say the least, but I think the Michigan State defense is up to the task.  The MSU offense may actually make the difference here.  If Connor Cook can keep the Spartans ahead of the Crimson Tide, It will go a long way in keeping Henry from really getting going.  The running back has been most dangerous late in games, as Alabama goes into clock-killing mode and the opponent's defense is worn down.  If Michigan State avoids this situation then I think they have a decent chance to shut down the 2015 Heisman winner.

5. Orange Bowl announcers don't mention last year's 40 - 6 Russell Athletic Bowl blowout

You might not know this, but Oklahoma and Clemson met in the 2014 postseason in the highly prestigious Russell Athletic Bowl.  It did not go well for the Sooners.  But, since no one else seems to remember this very important game, I'm sure the announcers for the Orange Bowl won't mention it.

College Football Bowl Season Bold Predictions

1. Hark! The Houston Cougars win

Both Houston and Florida State have momentum heading into their showdown in the Peach Bowl.  But the little guy has shown he has what it takes to slay the giant in previous New Year's Six and BCS bowls and this year figures to be no different.  The Cougars will have their hands full trying to contain Dalvin Cook, but their dynamic offense should keep it close.  Tom Herman comes up with his biggest win since departing Ohio State, as Houston wins 29 - 24.

2. On the first day of '16 OK State will surely see a victory over coach Freeze

We don't know yet if Ole Miss DL Robert Nkemdiche will play in the Sugar Bowl after his recent transgressions.  But at a minimum, the Rebels will have the distraction of dealing with questions regarding their star defensive player heading into their match-up with Oklahoma State.  I like the Cowboys in this one either way, as Ole Miss has been inconsistent since their early season win over Alabama, just like last year.  I think we see a repeat of their bowl performance from last season as well, though maybe not quite as lopsided.  Oklahoma State cruises to a 38 - 24 victory.

3. Do you see what I see?  Fifteen, fifteen, gashing Notre Dame; With another two hundred in a game;  With another two hundred in a game

A lot of people point to OSU's 12th ranked rushing attack vs Notre Dame's 65th ranked rushing defense as a mismatch in this year's Fiesta Bowl.  I am one of those people.  Zeke had a mere 33 yards in their pivotal loss to Michigan State, but followed it up with a big 214 yard day against the Wolverines in the Buckeyes' regular season finale.  I think #15 finishes off his college career with another masterful performance, as he tallies 200+ yards and carries Ohio State to a 35 - 23 win over the Irish in the desert.

4. I'm dreaming of a Hawkeye bowl win, just like the ones I used to know;  Where the linemen clash and the running backs dash, to score long touchdowns against their foe

It's the "Granddaddy of Them All" and Iowa is returning for just the sixth time in program history and the first time in 25 years.  Stanford, on the other hand, has reached the Rose Bowl fifteen times previously, this being their third visit in the past four years.  I don't know if the novelty has worn off for the Cardinal but I think the excitement surrounding this game for the Hawkeyes will give them a definite edge.  Both teams are tough, gritty football squads but I like Iowa in this one.  They put up a very good fight against Michigan State in the Big Ten championship and I think they will surprise people again with a close win on New Year's day.  20 - 14, Hawkeyes.

5. You better watch out, you better not cry;  You better not pout, I'm telling you why; Florida's gonna score a touchdown

The Gators' offense has been abysmal this year, coming in at 109th nationally in total offense.  Michigan, meanwhile, is ranked 4th in total defense.  But maybe, Florida will find a way into the end zone in the Citrus bowl.  It won't be enough to beat the Wolverines, though, as the Gators fall 17 - 10.