Oklahoma State and Alabama impressed with big wins over ranked opponents, and that is reflected in this week's rankings. The Crimson Tide may not be as high in my rankings as they will likely be in the committee's, as I am giving the undefeated teams a bit more credit. It certainly didn't help that many of Alabama's ranked opponents lost this week, including Ole Miss, who beat the Tide but has since lost three games. Meanwhile, Clemson claimed the top spot, Navy and Mississippi State entered my top 25, and many teams inched higher with wins while undefeated teams LSU, Michigan State, TCU, and Memphis lost and dropped.
The playoff field (for now):
1. Clemson (9-0), ACC ⇧1
The Tigers claim the top spot after finally beating Florida State, breaking a three game losing streak against the Seminoles. It also helped that LSU was handed their first loss.
2. Oklahoma State (9-0), Big 12 ⇧6
The Cowboys surprised many by taking down the Big 12 favorite, TCU, and doing so with relative ease. If they can survive a November schedule that includes Baylor and Oklahoma, they will be in the playoffs.
3. Ohio State (9-0), B1G
The offense looked lost at times without Barrett, but still managed to win against Goldy as the Buckeyes remain in the hunt for a repeat championship.
4. Iowa (9-0), B1G
The Hawkeyes keep winning, without getting much credit. But if they avoid an upset loss in November, they'll be one upset win away from crashing the CFP party.
November is the month when contenders rise and others' hopes die.
Will we rise to the challenge or will we crumble at the feet of our enemies? This is when we learn who we are at our core. We will be tested. We will be pushed to our limit. How we respond will define our season and determine how we will be remembered.
November is the month when champions are born.
They don't give out trophies for winning in September and October. There are a lot of undefeated teams still, but only a few will remain by the start of December. Some have already fallen. We must make sure that we are still one of the ones standing. That starts today with a win over Minnesota.
November is the month when the grind gets tough.
We knew from the beginning that this would be the month to make or break us. Starting right now, we learn how tough we really are.
November is the month when leaders step up.
Will we learn from our mistakes or fall into mediocrity? We must not regress. Move forward and get better. If not for yourself, do it for the guy next to you.
November is our month.
Urban Meyer owns November. We own November. Meyer is 46 - 3 in his three-and-a-half seasons at Ohio State. That means he is losing only one game per season, on average. You might think that means we are due for a loss. Wrong. Last week was our loss. Bye week got the better of us, but from here on out, we beat everyone.
The Tigers have avoided the letdown so far this year, but how will they fare with the pressure of a number-one ranking? The Seminoles are still a contender in the ACC, despite their loss to Georgia Tech, and will be playing hard to keep any last remaining shred of playoff hopes alive. This one goes down to the wire, in a back-and-forth game for the ages, until Florida State finally triumphs in double OT, 41 - 34. Sorry, Clemson fans, no pizza for you.
2. Alabama holds Fournette under 100 rushing yards
Something's gotta give in this battle between LSU's bruising back, Leonard Fournette, and the stifling run defense of the Crimson Tide. Alabama has allowed only one player to reach the century mark this year, while Fournette's lowest rushing total is 150 and he's topped 200 yards three times. But I think Alabama keeps Fournette in check on Saturday and delivers a big blow to the Tigers' playoff hopes with a 24 - 14 win.
3. Ohio State's defense continues dominance on 3rd down, with conversion rate under 30% for Minnesota
The Silver Bullets have owned 3rd down their last three games, allowing only 11 conversions in 41 attempts. The numbers are skewed a bit by the Penn State game, in which the Nittany Lions were successful on only 1 of 12 third downs (8.3%). But the defense still looked great on 3rd down against Maryland (5 of 14, or 35.7%) and Rutgers (5 of 15, or 33.3%). I think the Buckeyes keep it up, and hold the Gophers to a 3rd down conversion rate below 30%. They struggle a bit on offense early on, but find their groove in the second quarter, and eventually pull away to win 38 - 14.
4. Hoosiers knock off undefeated Iowa
Indiana is a team that has just been on the cusp of being really good this year. They came up just shy against Ohio State and Rutgers, and kept it close with Michigan State until the last five minutes. The Hawkeyes have a solid defense but will have their work cut out for them trying to stop the Hoosiers. I think Indiana starts fast and Iowa never quite catches up, as they lose their first game of the season, 31 - 28.
5. I get all of these predictions wrong
It's been tough sledding in the bold predictions department this season, but I haven't managed to get them all wrong in a single week... yet. I think this is the week I finally make the leap and lose all five predictions. Wait - is that even possible? I hope I get one of the above picks right, because otherwise I think the universe (or my brain) might implode when I try to determine whether to mark this prediction right or wrong. Fingers crossed, people!
A dearth of major upsets spelled trouble for my spooky week 9 predictions:
1. Double, double toil and trouble; Mountaineers win and burst Frogs' bubble
TCU's defense decided to show up this week, as the Horned Frogs won 40 - 10, thereby breaking the pattern of close games won by the road team in this series. TCU looked like a playoff team and Trevone Boykin looked like a Heisman contender as they routed the Mountaineers and busted this prediction.
2. Something wicked this way comes; Georgia knocks and Florida drops
In another game where defense dominated, the Gators controlled this game from start to finish. The Georgia loss could spell trouble for coach Mark Richt, as many viewed this as a must-win game for the Bulldogs coach to keep his job. As for Florida, they are feeling good about the hire of Jim McElwain as they take a 2-game lead in the SEC East and remain in the playoff picture after winning 27 - 3.
3. Once upon a midnight dreary, Wolverines lose, all weak and weary
Michigan looked a bit weak and weary, but they still survived the Gophers on the road thanks to a goal-line stand and some terrible clock management by Minnesota. If this was the job interview for interim coach Tracy Claeys to take over as the Gophers' permanent head coach, he had it all but wrapped up until he botched the final 19 seconds, down by 3 points. A replay review reversed what would have been the go-ahead-touchdown for Minnesota and instead gave them first-and-goal from the half-yard-line with 19 seconds left. That should have been enough time to run at least 3, maybe even 4 plays. Instead, the Gophers wasted 17 seconds (12 ran off pre-snap) on a failed first down pass. And after that, instead of kicking the field goal to send it to overtime, they tried a QB sneak but were stopped short. I'm fine with the decision to go for the win in regulation, especially when they were so close to the end zone and had enough time to run 4 plays if called correctly. You could even have one be a running play, since they had a timeout. But after the wasted first down play, I would say just kick the field goal. But Claeys gambled, likely knowing this was his job interview, and it simply didn't pay off. Wolverines walk away with the win, 29 - 26, feeling a bit lucky after they had such terrible luck in their previous game.
4. Undefeated for all season, Cowboys boast the better score. Quoth the Raiders, “Nevermore.”
This prediction looked like it had the best chance to succeed, at least early on. Texas Tech jumped out to a big lead and held on to a 10-point advantage at halftime. But Oklahoma State outscored the Red Raiders 42 - 15 in the second half to win the game 70 - 53. I look forward to the Big 12 champion (whomever it may be) facing a real defense in the playoffs. I guarantee they won't be scoring 70 points then...
5. The CFP Committee does the mash, they do the rankings mash
The committee definitely shook things up with their first set of rankings, especially in the top 10, where they put one-loss teams Alabama and Notre Dame at 4 and 5, respectively, ahead of numerous undefeated teams. And throughout, there was plenty of deviation from the AP poll, as no team held the same spot in both sets of rankings.
Speaking of rankings, here is my first attempt at a top 25 for the year. I will continue to update these each week around the same time the committee releases their rankings. This week they come in after the committee's list, but in the future I'll try to get mine out before they release theirs.
Week 9 record: 1 - 4
Overall record: 11 - 34
Other headlines from week 9:
Another school says goodbye to their head coach as Beamer announces retirement
Coaches seem to be dropping like flies this season, as Virginia Tech's Frank Beamer was the latest to go. He was a coaching legend who had a great 18 year run with the Hokies. But it was obvious that the time was growing near for him to step down, as Virginia Tech struggled to meet lofty preseason expectations the past few years.
J.T. Barrett faces suspension, loss of financial aid after OVI arrest
The bye week provided a bigger challenge than the Buckeyes' last three opponents, as news broke Saturday that J.T. Barrett was arrested for drinking and driving. Now, I know that these players are kids and everyone makes mistakes, but as a leader of this team Barrett should know better than to drink at all during the season, let alone get behind the wheel afterwards. He will be suspended for one game and couuld potentially lose a lot of money as a result of his bad decision-making. Whether or not this changes anything in terms of who the starter is going forward remains to be seen. A notable side note is that Braxton Miller is listed as second string QB against Minnesota. Hmm...
Miami stuns Duke on crazy kick-off return
For the third straight week we had a game end in unbelievable fashion. It was set up when the Blue Devils scored a touchdown to take the lead with 6 seconds left. Game over, right? Wrong.
(It is worth mentioning that the ACC refs officiating the game will be suspended based on evidence that they missed some calls on the final play that likely would have given Duke the win)
Here is my first attempt at a top 25 for the year. I will continue to update these each week around the same time the committee announces their rankings. This week they come in after the committee's list, but in the future I'll try to get mine out before they release theirs.
The playoff field (for now):
1. LSU (7-0), SEC
They boast an impressive victory over Florida, but otherwise their schedule is back-loaded. Keep winning and they will stay on top.
2. Clemson (8-0), ACC
The Tigers' win over Notre Dame is what sets them apart from many other undefeated squads. If they can beat Florida State and win the ACC, they will likely be in the playoff.
3. Ohio State (8-0), B1G
The Buckeyes are defending champs, but lack a signature victory. With a tough November slate coming up, that could change, though.
4. Iowa (8-0), B1G
No one is giving the Hawkeyes much love, but you can't deny what they've done. They have beaten quality teams in Pitt and Wisconsin. They might not be flashy, but they get the job done.
1. Double, double toil and trouble; Mountaineers win and burst Frogs' bubble
West Virginia is winless in conference play so far, after dropping three straight contests. But recent games between these two programs have been close, with the road team getting the win every time since both joined the Big 12 in 2012 (they only played once before then). TCU's defense has been nonexistent at times this year, and I think it finally bites them. Things get spooky for the Horned Frogs as the Mountaineers leave Fort Worth with the big upset win, 40 - 37.
2. Something wicked this way comes; Georgia knocks and Florida drops
This is another series where strange things have happened as of late. The stats, odds, and eye-test all favor the Gators, but in this rivalry game things don't always go as expected. The Bulldogs will be eager to avenge last year's loss to Florida and I think they play loose and that gives them an edge. Georgia knocks the Gators out of the playoff conversation with a 28 - 20 win.
3. Once upon a midnight dreary, Wolverines lose, all weak and weary
Ohio State is on bye this week, so the #3 spot which is usually occupied by my Buckeye bold prediction will instead feature every OSU fan's second favorite team: whoever is playing that team up north, which in this case is Minnesota. Jerry Kill stepped down as the Gophers' head coach this week, due to health concerns, so focus may be an issue for the players. Or, they may play their hearts out and give it all they've got for their former coach. Meanwhile, Michigan has had two weeks to ponder what went wrong against Michigan State. Whoever is more motivated will win this game. My money is on Minnesota to give coach Kill a final parting gift, as they beat Michigan by an eerily similar score of 27 - 23.
4. Undefeated for all season, Cowboys boast the better score. Quoth the Raiders, “Nevermore.”
Oklahoma State has looked susceptible in road games this year. Scratch that - they've looked susceptible anywhere when playing Power 5 teams not named "Kansas". Things even looked a little dicey against Central Michigan in week 1. Texas Tech has already lost a few, but they have shown that they are good for an upset at home every once in a while. Things get weird and wild in Lubbock, as the Red Raiders hand Oklahoma State their first loss, 45 - 38.
5. The CFP Committee does the mash, they do the rankings mash
Last year, the committee's inaugural rankings differed quite a bit from the AP poll from the same week. Only six of the top 25 matched exactly between the two. I think the committee mixes it up even more this year, with five or less coinciding with the AP. Scary!
1. Five or more ranked teams lose to unranked opponents
There were a couple of big upsets Saturday night, but it was not enough to salvage this prediction. Two top-ten, undefeated teams went down, as Georgia Tech upset Florida State and USC obliterated Utah. But other than those two, the only other ranked team to fall to an unranked foe was Cal, who was taken down by UCLA on Thursday night.
2. Baylor tops season-high score with 71 points or more against Iowa State
The Bears were on track for another high-scoring performance, up 35 - 7 at halftime. But rain and improved performance by the Cyclones' defense in the second half put a damper on this prediction, as Baylor finished with what was actually their lowest offensive output of the year, but still won 45 - 27. However, the bigger news coming out of Waco is that Baylor's starting quarterback, Seth Russell, sustained a broken bone in his neck towards the end of the game, and will miss the remainder of the season. True freshman Jarrett Stidham will take over for Russell as the Bears enter the meat of their schedule.
3. Ohio State punts two or fewer times against Rutgers
The Buckeyes only punted once against the Scarlet Knights, as the offense efficiently moved the ball all night. The defense and special teams also turned in stellar performances, as Ohio State put together their most complete game of the season so far, easily handling Rutgers, 49 - 7. Another notable stat was that OSU avoided any penalties, which has been a problem area for much of the season. The lone error was an early fumble by J.T. Barrett. But make no mistake, J.T. is the guy going forward.
4. Michigan State suffers letdown loss to Indiana at home
Don't let the final score fool you, this was a close game, but Sparty eventually prevailed at home. The Hoosiers were only down 5 points late in the game, but 3 touchdowns in the last five minutes sealed this one for Michigan State, who won 52 - 26, and spoiled this prediction as a result.
5. Brady Hoke explains he would've tried to score more points, make less mistakes against Spartans, if still coach at Michigan
He might not have said it publicly, but we all know he was at least thinking it.
Week 8 record: 1 - 4
Overall record: 10 - 30
Other headlines from week 8:
Miami fires Al Golden
Another head coach got the boot this week, as the Hurricanes dumped Golden after suffering their worst loss in school history. Clemson demoralized Miami, 58 - 0, but anyone keeping an eye on this situation knew Golden's time was drawing near, regardless of the outcome of this game. And to think, some people put Clemson on upset alert.
4OT thrillers in ACC, SEC
It's quite rare for games to go to past double-overtime, and yet, we had two games this week go to four OT periods. Duke survived against Virginia Tech 45 - 43 and Arkansas took down Auburn 54 - 46, with both games going to 4OT. At that point, it's about depth, especially on defense, and just who can make one more play to finally stop the other guy.
Kick-six, part two
Most college football fans remember the famous ending to the 2013 Iron Bowl, in which Auburn returned an Alabama field goal attempt to score the game-winning touchdown as time expired. We were again reminded of it after the crazy ending to the Michigan-Michigan State game a week earlier. And this week we have a near carbon-copy of the Kick-six, as Georgia Tech returned a blocked Florida State field goal to end the game and stun the Seminoles, handing them their first loss of the season. "What a time to be alive!"
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