College Football Week 11 Bold Predictions

1. Oregon gives Stanford taste of their own medicine with upset win over Cardinal

Stanford has only beaten the Ducks three times since 2001, but each of those times Oregon entered the game favored and with possible championship aspirations, only to have their hopes ruined by a scrappy Cardinal team.  This year, it's Oregon with the opportunity to play spoiler, as Stanford could be looking at a spot in the top 4 if they win out.  The Ducks have steadily gotten better since their OT loss to Washington State, and while they haven't been the same team since Mariota left for the NFL, I think they find a way to win this game.  Oregon stuns Stanford at home, 37 - 34.

2. Oklahoma gets revenge on Baylor with double-digit win

The Bears have embarrassed the Sooners a couple years in a row now, winning by a combined score of 89 - 26 over those two games.  Vegas is predicting a close game in favor of Art Briles' team this year, and Baylor may indeed be playing with a chip on their shoulder after feeling disrespected by the CFP committee in consecutive weeks.  But the Bears haven't faced a real challenge yet this season, while Oklahoma is much more battle-tested and, simply put, just looks like the better team to me.  Baylor's offense stalls against the first quality defense they face, as Sooners win 38 - 28.

3. Slobs pave way for 300+ rushing yards vs Illinois

Ohio State has been running all over the Fighting Ilini since Meyer arrived in Columbus; the Buckeyes totaled 1067 yards on the ground in those three "rivalry" wins.  But Illinois' run defense is decidedly better this year (allowing 139 yards per game vs 239 ypg in 2014, 238 ypg in 2013, and 193 ypg in 2012), and OSU's rushing attack is actually under-performing a bit compared to the previous 3 years as well (240 ypg vs 264 ypg in 2014, 308 ypg in 2013, and 242 ypg in 2012). But with Barrett back under center and the slobs starting to find their groove, I expect Ohio State to put up some big numbers on the ground. Zeke extends his streak of 100-yard games as the Buckeyes steamroll the Illini, 49 - 17.

4. Iowa falls to Minnesota

I'm picking on the Hawkeyes again this week.  I actually really like Iowa - they play good, sound football and have beaten some decent teams.  I just think the pressure of going undefeated will be too much for them to handle, and sooner or later they will lose.  The Gophers could present an interesting challenge this week, as their defense should keep it close.  I think Minnesota pulls off the upset, 24 - 20.

5. Missouri scores points

The Tigers' offense has been among the worst in the country this year, averaging a paltry 14.7 points per game, good for 127th (out of 128) among FBS teams.  And that's even with early-season games against Southeast Missouri State, Arkansas State, and UConn.  Considering the unrest in Columbia following the university president's resignation amid racial tensions, and the possible division even within the football team, I think we'll be lucky to see Missouri field anything resembling a competitive football team in their game against BYU this weekend.  Throw in the fact that head coach Gary Pinkel just announced his retirement (due to health concerns) and you've got a recipe for an unfocused group of kids.  BYU is no world-beater on defense, but they are in the top 40 in scoring defense nationally, so I think a shutout is a definite possibility.  I'm going out on a limb, though, and saying that the Tigers put together at least one decent drive and score some points.  Cougars still win, 20 - 3.

College Football Week 10 Recap

My week 10 predictions looked pretty good... or so I thought:

1. Florida State upsets top-ranked Clemson

Clemson finally got over the hump and took down the reigning three-time ACC champions, Florida State.  As a result, they won the Atlantic division and clinched a berth in the conference championship game.  The 23 - 13 win solidified their spot at the top of the rankings as well.  Maybe these Tigers won't have a letdown after all?

2. Alabama holds Fournette under 100 rushing yards

The LSU running back looked unstoppable in the Tigers' seven wins before Saturday's clash with the Crimson Tide.  But against Alabama, Fournette looked pedestrian.  He tallied only 31 yards on 19 carries as LSU fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, losing 30 - 16 to Alabama.

3. Ohio State's defense continues dominance on 3rd down, with conversion rate under 30% for Minnesota

The Silver Bullets dominated, but a late surge by the Gophers ultimately kept this prediction from materializing, as Minnesota converted 7 of 19 third downs, or 36.8%.  Overall, it was still a brilliant defensive performance, which included a pick-six by Vonn Bell that provided a spark in a previously scoreless deadlock.  The Buckeyes' offense was inconsistent, though, and it's now more apparent than ever that Barrett is the right QB for the job.  It's a shame that the quarterback battle has progressed this way, though, as so many fans have forgotten or chosen not to acknowledge everything Jones has done for this team.  Even with his struggles this year, he's done enough to win every game he's started in, including a 28 - 14 victory over the Gophers on Saturday night.

4. Hoosiers knock off undefeated Iowa

Indiana kept it close, but in the end they came up short once again against a superior opponent.  The Hawkeyes remain undefeated with the 35 - 27 win and now look ahead to a potentially tricky night match-up with a decent Minnesota team.

5. I get all of these predictions wrong

So close...

Week 10 record: 1 - 4
Overall record: 12 - 38

Only six unbeatens remain, with lots of one-loss teams waiting in the wings

With LSU, Michigan State, TCU, Memphis, and Toledo all losing in week 10, we're down to just six teams with perfect records.  Houston is the last unbeaten from the group of five, but likely won't get enough help to reach the playoffs even if the Cougars win out.  And of the five undefeated Power 5 teams, at least two are guaranteed to lose before season's end because some will play each other.  That means one or more one-loss teams will be in the playoffs.  Right now the obvious first choice is Alabama, if they win out and claim another SEC title.  But if they lose or if there are more upsets that allow other one-loss teams in, who's next?  There are a slew of candidates out there, many with compelling arguments to be included.  The winner of Notre Dame - Stanford could definitely be in the mix, or maybe even Utah, Florida, or Oklahoma if one of those teams wins out in impressive fashion.  There's still a lot of football left to be played, but right now it's hard to guess who might get in, other than the remaining unbeatens.

Nebraska's luck turns around; Michigan State's luck runs out

Anyone who has payed attention to the Cornhuskers' season knows they're a better team than their record indicates.  Five of their six losses were by 5 points or less, and four of those games were decided in the final seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime.  The Spartans, on the other hand, have been on the right side of all of their close games this season - until now.  Michigan State held a 12 point lead with less than two minutes to play, but a wild finish saw Nebraska score twice to win it, including a controversial call on the winning touchdown.  The officials ruled that Brandon Reilly was pushed out of bounds before coming back onto the field to catch the game-winning touchdown with 17 seconds left.  I still don't see it, but the officials, and the Big Ten, have stuck with the original call.  As a result, Cornhuskers ruined Michigan State's shot at a perfect season, as they beat the Spartans 39 - 38.

How 'bout them Hogs?

Arkansas trailed Ole Miss 52 - 45 in overtime, facing a daunting 4th-and-25 with the game on the line.  What happened next was unbelievable:

I imagine that Alabama fans have to be drawing hearts around pictures of Bert after that wild finish, which erased the tie-breaker that Ole Miss held over the Tide.  We already know that the win put Bert in the mood.

My College Football Week 11 Rankings

Oklahoma State and Alabama impressed with big wins over ranked opponents, and that is reflected in this week's rankings.  The Crimson Tide may not be as high in my rankings as they will likely be in the committee's, as I am giving the undefeated teams a bit more credit.  It certainly didn't help that many of Alabama's ranked opponents lost this week, including Ole Miss, who beat the Tide but has since lost three games.  Meanwhile, Clemson claimed the top spot, Navy and Mississippi State entered my top 25, and many teams inched higher with wins while undefeated teams LSU, Michigan State, TCU, and Memphis lost and dropped.

The playoff field (for now):

1. Clemson (9-0), ACC ⇧1

The Tigers claim the top spot after finally beating Florida State, breaking a three game losing streak against the Seminoles.  It also helped that LSU was handed their first loss.

2. Oklahoma State (9-0), Big 12 ⇧6

The Cowboys surprised many by taking down the Big 12 favorite, TCU, and doing so with relative ease.  If they can survive a November schedule that includes Baylor and Oklahoma, they will be in the playoffs.

3. Ohio State (9-0), B1G

The offense looked lost at times without Barrett, but still managed to win against Goldy as the Buckeyes remain in the hunt for a repeat championship.

4. Iowa (9-0), B1G

The Hawkeyes keep winning, without getting much credit.  But if they avoid an upset loss in November, they'll be one upset win away from crashing the CFP party.

The rest:

Rank	Team	Record	Conf	Trend
5	Baylor	9-0	Big 12	⇧1
6	Alabama	8-1	SEC	⇧5
7	Notre Dame	8-1	Indep	⇧3
8	LSU	8-1	SEC	⇩7
9	Florida	8-1	SEC	--
10	Stanford	8-1	Pac 12	⇧2
11	Utah	8-1	Pac 12	⇧2
12	Oklahoma	8-1	Big 12	⇧2
13	Michigan State	8-1	B1G	⇩8
14	TCU	8-1	Big 12	⇩7
15	Houston	9-0	AAC	⇧2
16	Michigan	7-2	B1G	⇧2
17	North Carolina	8-1	ACC	⇧2
18	UCLA	7-2	Pac 12	⇧4
19	Florida State	7-2	ACC	⇩3
20	Northwestern	7-2	B1G	⇧3
21	Navy	7-1	AAC	New
22	Temple	8-1	AAC	⇩1
23	Mississippi State	7-2	SEC	New
24	Memphis	8-1	AAC	⇩9
25	Wisconsin	8-2	B1G	--

Previous rankings:
Week 10

Ohio State of Mind: Minnesota

November is the month when contenders rise and others' hopes die.

Will we rise to the challenge or will we crumble at the feet of our enemies?  This is when we learn who we are at our core.  We will be tested.  We will be pushed to our limit.  How we respond will define our season and determine how we will be remembered.

November is the month when champions are born.

They don't give out trophies for winning in September and October.  There are a lot of undefeated teams still, but only a few will remain by the start of December.  Some have already fallen.  We must make sure that we are still one of the ones standing.  That starts today with a win over Minnesota.

November is the month when the grind gets tough.

We knew from the beginning that this would be the month to make or break us.  Starting right now, we learn how tough we really are.

November is the month when leaders step up.

Will we learn from our mistakes or fall into mediocrity?  We must not regress.  Move forward and get better.  If not for yourself, do it for the guy next to you.

November is our month.

Urban Meyer owns November.  We own November.  Meyer is 46 - 3 in his three-and-a-half seasons at Ohio State.  That means he is losing only one game per season, on average.  You might think that means we are due for a loss.  Wrong.  Last week was our loss.  Bye week got the better of us, but from here on out, we beat everyone.

Go Bucks.  Beat Minnesota.

College Football Week 10 Bold Predictions

1. Florida State upsets top-ranked Clemson

The Tigers have avoided the letdown so far this year, but how will they fare with the pressure of a number-one ranking?  The Seminoles are still a contender in the ACC, despite their loss to Georgia Tech, and will be playing hard to keep any last remaining shred of playoff hopes alive.  This one goes down to the wire, in a back-and-forth game for the ages, until Florida State finally triumphs in double OT, 41 - 34.  Sorry, Clemson fans, no pizza for you.

2. Alabama holds Fournette under 100 rushing yards

Something's gotta give in this battle between LSU's bruising back, Leonard Fournette, and the stifling run defense of the Crimson Tide.  Alabama has allowed only one player to reach the century mark this year, while Fournette's lowest rushing total is 150 and he's topped 200 yards three times.  But I think Alabama keeps Fournette in check on Saturday and delivers a big blow to the Tigers' playoff hopes with a 24 - 14 win.

3. Ohio State's defense continues dominance on 3rd down, with conversion rate under 30% for Minnesota

The Silver Bullets have owned 3rd down their last three games, allowing only 11 conversions in 41 attempts.  The numbers are skewed a bit by the Penn State game, in which the Nittany Lions were successful on only 1 of 12 third downs (8.3%).  But the defense still looked great on 3rd down against Maryland (5 of 14, or 35.7%)  and Rutgers (5 of 15, or 33.3%).  I think the Buckeyes keep it up, and hold the Gophers to a 3rd down conversion rate below 30%.  They struggle a bit on offense early on, but find their groove in the second quarter, and eventually pull away to win 38 - 14.

4. Hoosiers knock off undefeated Iowa

Indiana is a team that has just been on the cusp of being really good this year.  They came up just shy against Ohio State and Rutgers, and kept it close with Michigan State until the last five minutes.  The Hawkeyes have a solid defense but will have their work cut out for them trying to stop the Hoosiers.  I think Indiana starts fast and Iowa never quite catches up, as they lose their first game of the season, 31 - 28.

5. I get all of these predictions wrong

It's been tough sledding in the bold predictions department this season, but I haven't managed to get them all wrong in a single week... yet.  I think this is the week I finally make the leap and lose all five predictions.  Wait - is that even possible?  I hope I get one of the above picks right, because otherwise I think the universe (or my brain) might implode when I try to determine whether to mark this prediction right or wrong.  Fingers crossed, people!

College Football Week 9 Recap

A dearth of major upsets spelled trouble for my spooky week 9 predictions:

1. Double, double toil and trouble; Mountaineers win and burst Frogs' bubble

TCU's defense decided to show up this week, as the Horned Frogs won 40 - 10, thereby breaking the pattern of close games won by the road team in this series.  TCU looked like a playoff team and Trevone Boykin looked like a Heisman contender as they routed the Mountaineers and busted this prediction.

2. Something wicked this way comes; Georgia knocks and Florida drops

In another game where defense dominated, the Gators controlled this game from start to finish.  The Georgia loss could spell trouble for coach Mark Richt, as many viewed this as a must-win game for the Bulldogs coach to keep his job.  As for Florida, they are feeling good about the hire of Jim McElwain as they take a 2-game lead in the SEC East and remain in the playoff picture after winning 27 - 3.

3. Once upon a midnight dreary, Wolverines lose, all weak and weary

Michigan looked a bit weak and weary, but they still survived the Gophers on the road thanks to a goal-line stand and some terrible clock management by Minnesota.  If this was the job interview for interim coach Tracy Claeys to take over as the Gophers' permanent head coach, he had it all but wrapped up until he botched the final 19 seconds, down by 3 points.  A replay review reversed what would have been the go-ahead-touchdown for Minnesota and instead gave them first-and-goal from the half-yard-line with 19 seconds left.  That should have been enough time to run at least 3, maybe even 4 plays.  Instead, the Gophers wasted 17 seconds (12 ran off pre-snap) on a failed first down pass.  And after that, instead of kicking the field goal to send it to overtime, they tried a QB sneak but were stopped short.  I'm fine with the decision to go for the win in regulation, especially when they were so close to the end zone and had enough time to run 4 plays if called correctly.  You could even have one be a running play, since they had a timeout.  But after the wasted first down play, I would say just kick the field goal.  But Claeys gambled, likely knowing this was his job interview, and it simply didn't pay off.  Wolverines walk away with the win, 29 - 26, feeling a bit lucky after they had such terrible luck in their previous game.

4. Undefeated for all season, Cowboys boast the better score.  Quoth the Raiders, “Nevermore.”

This prediction looked like it had the best chance to succeed, at least early on.  Texas Tech jumped out to a big lead and held on to a 10-point advantage at halftime.  But Oklahoma State outscored the Red Raiders 42 - 15 in the second half to win the game 70 - 53.  I look forward to the Big 12 champion (whomever it may be) facing a real defense in the playoffs.  I guarantee they won't be scoring 70 points then...

5. The CFP Committee does the mash, they do the rankings mash

The committee definitely shook things up with their first set of rankings, especially in the top 10, where they put one-loss teams Alabama and Notre Dame at 4 and 5, respectively, ahead of numerous undefeated teams.  And throughout, there was plenty of deviation from the AP poll, as no team held the same spot in both sets of rankings.

Speaking of rankings, here is my first attempt at a top 25 for the year. I will continue to update these each week around the same time the committee releases their rankings.  This week they come in after the committee's list, but in the future I'll try to get mine out before they release theirs.

Week 9 record: 1 - 4
Overall record: 11 - 34

Other headlines from week 9:

Another school says goodbye to their head coach as Beamer announces retirement

Coaches seem to be dropping like flies this season, as Virginia Tech's Frank Beamer was the latest to go.  He was a coaching legend who had a great 18 year run with the Hokies.  But it was obvious that the time was growing near for him to step down, as Virginia Tech struggled to meet lofty preseason expectations the past few years.

J.T. Barrett faces suspension, loss of financial aid after OVI arrest

The bye week provided a bigger challenge than the Buckeyes' last three opponents, as news broke Saturday that J.T. Barrett was arrested for drinking and driving.  Now, I know that these players are kids and everyone makes mistakes, but as a leader of this team Barrett should know better than to drink at all during the season, let alone get behind the wheel afterwards. He will be suspended for one game and couuld potentially lose a lot of money as a result of his bad decision-making.  Whether or not this changes anything in terms of who the starter is going forward remains to be seen.  A notable side note is that Braxton Miller is listed as second string QB against Minnesota. Hmm...

Miami stuns Duke on crazy kick-off return

For the third straight week we had a game end in unbelievable fashion.  It was set up when the Blue Devils scored a touchdown to take the lead with 6 seconds left. Game over, right? Wrong.

(It is worth mentioning that the ACC refs officiating the game will be suspended based on evidence that they missed some calls on the final play that likely would have given Duke the win)

My College Football Week 10 Rankings

Here is my first attempt at a top 25 for the year. I will continue to update these each week around the same time the committee announces their rankings.  This week they come in after the committee's list, but in the future I'll try to get mine out before they release theirs.

The playoff field (for now):

1. LSU (7-0), SEC

They boast an impressive victory over Florida, but otherwise their schedule is back-loaded.  Keep winning and they will stay on top.

2. Clemson (8-0), ACC

The Tigers' win over Notre Dame is what sets them apart from many other undefeated squads.  If they can beat Florida State and win the ACC, they will likely be in the playoff.

3. Ohio State (8-0), B1G

The Buckeyes are defending champs, but lack a signature victory.  With a tough November slate coming up, that could change, though.

4. Iowa (8-0), B1G

No one is giving the Hawkeyes much love, but you can't deny what they've done.  They have beaten quality teams in Pitt and Wisconsin.  They might not be flashy, but they get the job done.

The rest:

Rank	Team	Record	Conf	Trend
5	Michigan State	8-0	B1G	--
6	Baylor	8-0	Big 12	--
7	TCU	8-0	Big 12	--
8	Oklahoma State	8-0	Big 12	--
9	Florida	7-1	SEC	--
10	Notre Dame	7-1	Indep	--
11	Alabama	7-1	SEC	--
12	Stanford	7-1	Pac 12	--
13	Utah	7-1	Pac 12	--
14	Oklahoma	7-1	Big 12	--
15	Memphis	8-0	AAC	--
16	Florida State	7-1	ACC	--
17	Houston	8-0	AAC	--
18	Michigan	6-2	B1G	--
19	North Carolina	7-1	ACC	--
20	Ole Miss	7-2	SEC	--
21	Temple	7-1	AAC	--
22	UCLA	6-2	Pac 12	--
23	Northwestern	6-2	B1G	--
24	Texas A&M	6-2	SEC	--
25	Wisconsin	7-2	B1G	--