College Football Week 6 Bold Predictions

1. Cal knocks off Utah to take lead in Pac-12 race

California and Utah enter this game as the last remaining undefeated teams in their conference.  They have both been surprises this year, but most people are pegging the Utes as the winner of this match-up after their dismantling of Oregon two weeks ago.  But the Golden Bears have some nice victories to their name as well, including a win over a Washington team that just upset USC in the Coliseum.  Utah shone bright as the underdog, but how will they fare when the pressure's on, in the spotlight with a number 5 ranking?  I think they falter, as Cal leaves Salt Lake City still perfect, with a huge 35 - 34 upset over Utah.

2. Georgia Tech stuns Clemson in Death Valley

The Tigers appear to be on the rise, while the Yellow Jackets have just lost their third straight game.  But Georgia Tech was in a similar place last year, after dropping back-to-back games to Duke and North Carolina before ripping off 5 straight wins, including a dominating 28 - 6 victory over Clemson.  A lot will depend on how focused the Tigers will be after their big win over Notre Dame.  I think history repeats itself, as the Tigers struggle to contain Tech's triple-option attack, falling 24 - 17 to the Yellow Jackets.

3. Ohio State wins the turnover battle vs Maryland

One of the biggest problems plaguing the Buckeyes this year has been turnovers.  They are ranked 117th in the nation in the category, with 13 total giveaways, and lost the turnover battle in every game but one (against Hawaii - a team among the worst in the country in turnover margin at -7).  But there's hope for OSU on Saturday, as the Terrapins mosey into Columbus with an abysmal 127th ranking in the same category, with 17 total turnovers.  And Meyer admitted that he was a "raving lunatic" in practice this week when it came to ball security.  The Buckeyes hold on to the ball, and their undefeated season, as they finally look like a championship football team against Maryland, winning 42 - 10.

4. Less than four offensive touchdowns scored in battle between Michigan and Northwestern

Points will be in high demand in Ann Arbor this weekend, as these teams boast the top two scoring defenses in the country.  I expect more field goals than touchdowns in a hard fought, physical match-up that should be very close throughout.  The Wolverines have the edge, though, in my opinion, despite the Wildcats' perfect 5 - 0 record.  Michigan wins this showdown of ranked teams, 19 - 13, to send the Harbaugh hype train full steam ahead.

5. UConn gets UCF coach to recognize totally real rivalry

This summer, UConn announced that they have a rivalry with Central Florida, whether the Knights like it (or know about it) or not.  And the Huskies are sticking to their word, bringing the trophy for this not-made-up rivalry to the game on Saturday.  The history between these two teams goes back all the way to 2013, and the series remains dead even with both teams notching a win.  But will UCF coach George O'Leary recognize the Civil Conflict ConFLiCT or see this as just another game?  It might depend on how the 0 - 5 Knights do against the Huskies, who have won games this year.  Everyone Someone will be watching this epic duel between UConn and UCF (which might not be meaningless in the AAC conference race) and wondering whether or not UCF even cares enough to try to win.  I think the Central Florida players will be fueled by their everlasting brand new hatred for UConn and come away with the upset, 22 - 14, as O'Leary proclaims: "WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS OF THE GREATEST RIVALRY THE WORLD HAS EVER KNOWN!"

College Football Week 5 Recap

Let's examine my Week 5 Bold Predictions to see how I did:

1. Underdogs prove victorious in at least 3 out of 5 clashes between ranked teams

There were a number of upsets in the top 25, including four in the top 10.  Three of those qualified for this prediction, as Georgia and Ole Miss were easily handled by Alabama and Florida, respectively, and Clemson held on to beat Notre Dame.  Oklahoma and Texas A&M cruised to double-digit wins against their respective lower ranked opponents, but the aforementioned games were enough to get this one right.

2. Eastern Michigan keeps Leonard Fournette under 200 rushing yards

So much for LSU having an easy time with the Eagles.  The Tigers were only up by 8 points heading into the fourth quarter, and leaned heavily on Fournette throughout the entirety of the game.  The result was 26 carries for 233 yards for the running back, foiling this prediction.

3. Ohio State puts up 50+ points on the Hoosiers

For the second straight week I got half the score prediction exactly right for the weekly OSU prediction, as Indiana scored 27 on the Buckeyes.  But for the other half of the score, and the main part of the prediction, I was way off.  Ohio State's offensive struggles continued, as they managed only 6 points in the first half.  They came away with a victory behind Elliott's huge second half, but it wasn't pretty.  There are three major issues plaguing this team right now, in my opinion: turnovers, penalties (on offense and defense), and poor red-zone offense (mostly due to turnovers and penalties).  If Meyer gets these problems addressed, the Buckeyes should be fine.

4.  Big Ten openers feature blowouts, with average margin of victory exceeding 20 points

This was another one where I was way off.  Michigan won big at Maryland, and Northwestern had a surprising blowout win over Minnesota, but the rest of the Big Ten's conference games were all decided by a touchdown or less.  Top dogs Ohio State and Michigan State both struggled against teams from Indiana, while Iowa and Illinois notched close upset victories.  With so many of these games being closer than expected, the resulting average margin of victory was only 11.7 points.

5. Oregon finally figures out who fielded that punt

I think it's safe to say they now know it was Boobie Hobbs who caught the ball and took it back for a touchdown in Utah's blowout win over the Ducks.  But did Oregon know they still had a game to play Saturday against Colorado?  The Buffaloes brought the game within 7 points in the 4th quarter before Oregon finally pulled away, closing out the game with 10 unanswered points.  The Ducks still have time to salvage their season, but will need flawless play from here on out, and I just don't see that happening after getting embarrassed by Utah.

Week 5 record: 2 - 3
Overall record: 6 - 19

Other headlines from week 5:

Virginia Tech continues free-fall with loss to Pittsburgh

Things haven't been the same for the Hokies since quarterback Michael Brewer got injured in the season opener against Ohio State.  They rebounded after the loss to the Buckeyes with wins over Furman and Purdue, but have now dropped back-to-back games to East Carolina and Pittsburgh.  To make matters worse, their All-American cornerback, Kendall Fuller, will miss the rest of the season.  Brewer might be back in the lineup as early as this week, so things may be looking up for Virginia Tech.  But if his return doesn't provide a spark for this team, they may be looking at another 7-6 season... or worse.

Extra points are kind of a big deal at Iowa State

The Cyclones' placeholder gets really excited for every successful PAT.  Like, really excited.  Good for him - I doubt there's much else to get pumped about at Iowa State.

This is why we can't have nice things, UCLA

Arizona State clinched their victory over the previously unbeaten Bruins on Saturday with a ridiculous touchdown run by Kalen Ballage.  UCLA players were obviously trying to strip the ball, rather than tackle the ball carrier, but the play still deserves mention, as Ballage traveled a good 20 yards after contact... backwards.

Ohio State of Mind: at Indiana

This is when the real season starts. This is the time to step up. This is Big Ten football.

The first four games are done and over with. We should learn from the mistakes of those imperfect victories but not dwell on the past, good or bad.  We have gotten better but the journey is only beginning.  The margin for error gets smaller and smaller from here on out.

This is over 100 years of tradition.  This is the melding of old and new.  This is Big Ten football.

We've played Indiana a total of 87 times. They've won 12 of those games. Their last win was in 1988.  How badly do you think they want to beat us?  5 of those games ended in ties, and the other 70 games were Ohio State victories.  Let's make it 71.

This is 4-0 vs 4-0. This is win or go home.  This is Big Ten football.

1942 was the last year we met as unbeatens. Only one team can leave that stadium still unbeaten.  Let's make sure that team is the one wearing Scarlet and Grey.

This is power vs power.  This is speed vs speed.  This is Big Ten football.

Don't think for a second that they're not as strong us as.  Don't doubt their speed or talent.  This is a physical team that will hit us in the mouth if we aren't ready.  They will blow past us if we don't stay 100% focused.  They've almost knocked us off before.  This time, we will be ready.

This is Buckeyes vs Hoosiers.  This is college football at its finest. This is Big Ten football.

Go Bucks. Beat Indiana.

College Football Week 5 Bold Predictions

1. Underdogs prove victorious in at least 3 out of 5 clashes between ranked teams

This week, there are five showdowns between ranked teams, and I think the lower ranked guys come out on top in the majority of them.  #15 Oklahoma and #23 West Virginia are both undefeated and I could see that one going either way.  You certainly can't count out #13 Alabama against #8 Georgia.  #25 Florida has its work cut out with #3 Ole Miss coming to the swamp, but I think it's only a matter of time before the Rebels falter - why couldn't it be against the undefeated Gators?  I feel the same way about #14 Texas A&M as they get ready to play #21 Mississippi State.  And finally, we've got #6 Notre Dame taking on #12 Clemson, another one that I wouldn't be surprised to see go down to the wire.  My picks for these games: West Virginia over Oklahoma, 37 - 35; Alabama beats Georgia, 42 - 30; Ole Miss survives Florida, 28 - 20; Texas A&M hangs on against Mississippi State, 31 - 24; Clemson downs Notre Dame in OT, 34 - 31.

2. Eastern Michigan keeps Leonard Fournette under 200 rushing yards

The LSU running back and Heisman front-runner has totaled 631 yards on the ground in just three games this year, and that number could explode this Saturday.  The reason?  Eastern Michigan ranks 128th (out of 128) in the FBS in terms of rushing yards allowed, giving up an astonishing 1493 yards over the course of four contests.  The only chance that I get this prediction right is if the Tigers get a huge lead early and rest their bruising back, which is certainly possible.  LSU wins easily either way, something like 48 - 10.

3. Ohio State puts up 50+ points on the Hoosiers

This is the week it finally all comes together on offense.  It seemed like the Buckeyes were on the verge of breaking out last week, and with Jones solidifying the starting job I think his confidence and the overall potency of the entire offense skyrockets against Indiana.  The Hoosiers aren't exactly known for their defense, either, and the school announced yesterday that DT Darius Latham, the cornerstone of their defensive line, has been suspended indefinitely.  On the other side of the ball, IU boasts a dangerous ground attack, spearheaded by UAB transfer Jordan Howard, who leads the nation in rushing yards.  Quarterback Nate Sudfeld is also back for his senior year, making this game a potential challenge for Ohio State's defense.  But I think the Buckeye offense outperforms all other units (for a change), as Cardale drops a bomb on Indiana in a 52 - 27 victory.

4.  Big Ten openers feature blowouts, with average margin of victory exceeding 20 points

The average margin of victory (by week) during the B1G conference slate last year was about 16 points.  On only three occasions did that average top 20 points.  However, one of those occasions was the first week of conference play.  Vegas is predicting closer games; if results match the current lines it would yield only a 12.7 average margin of victory.  But I think the disparity between the top and bottom of the Big Ten becomes clearly evident from the start, much like it did last year.  Penn State and Rutgers are left out from this prediction, since they opened their conference schedules against each other last week.  Rutgers is on bye this week and Penn State faces Army, which amounts to virtually the same thing.  I already gave my Ohio State vs Indiana score prediction, but here are my others: Michigan 35, Maryland 13; Michigan State 41, Purdue 17; Northwestern 23, Minnesota 16; Wisconsin 39, Iowa 17; Nebraska 38, Illinois 14.

5. Oregon finally figures out who fielded that punt

Last week, Utah pulled off an amazing fake during a punt return in the third quarter of their 62 - 20 obliteration of the Ducks.  The Utes fooled just about everyone, including 9 out of 11 of the Oregon players on the field.  It's now been determined that Britain Covey did not in fact catch the punt.  Oregon has their top special-teams experts dedicated to figuring out exactly where the ball went, and who may have caught it.  I'm confident that they'll find out what happened.

Cardale Jones, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Before the 2015 season started, I thought J.T. Barrett should be the starter.  I was sure it was going to be Barrett.  It seemed like a no-brainer to me.  Barrett is the more experienced leader, he's more accurate, and he runs the read option (a bread-and-butter play for the 2014 Buckeyes) to perfection.  He beat out Jones last year; why wouldn't he do it again?  And then Meyer named Cardale Jones the starting quarterback for the season opener against Virginia Tech.

I was surprised, but not upset.  To me, there was no wrong choice.  They both have their pros and cons and while I thought Barrett had more stuff in the "pros" column, I didn't think he was overwhelmingly better.  And then the offense struggled, and through the first 3 weeks they looked worse and worse each game.  People started to question the decision, myself included.  Sure, Barrett didn't look much better, but he was never really given a fair shot to get in a rhythm in any game.  After the Northern Illinois scare, when Meyer said he was going to reevaluate the QB position, I was again sure it would be Barrett taking the reins.  And I was again surprised when Meyer named Jones the starter.

At that point I at least accepted that Jones would be the starter.  And I was hopeful that we would just stick with him, as I thought the switching was not helping either one's confidence.  I also knew that the offensive issues went way beyond the quarterback position, and I was optimistic that those would get fixed regardless of who was playing quarterback.  And on Saturday, against Western Michigan, the offense did look better.  Still not great, but better.  Jones looked better too, though he still made some mistakes and under-threw countless open receivers (my biggest complaint about him as a passer).  But throughout the game, and shortly after, it started to dawn on me: why Meyer is going with Jones over Barrett.  He's playing the long game.


Urban Meyer wants YOU... to trust him.

Meyer wasn't and isn't building this team for a September/October run through mid-majors and subpar Big Ten teams.  He's planning for November, December, and January.

---

J.T. Barrett might be the better overall quarterback.  Right now.  But Jones has a higher ceiling in terms of his raw ability.  The areas where Barrett has an advantage are things that Jones can get better at with experience.  He can improve his accuracy.  He can learn to be a leader.  He can fix the under-thrown deep balls.  Barrett can't grow 4 inches and transform his arm into a rocket-launcher.

Meyer wasn't and isn't building this team for a September/October run through mid-majors and subpar Big Ten teams.  He's planning for November, December, and January.  He's thinking about Michigan State and Michigan and the postseason.  He won't admit it, but he knows that no one else on the schedule will threaten us.  Northern Illinois was a scare, and I think he panicked a bit during that game.  But think about what we can take away from that experience:  NIU is no pushover and could probably beat at least half the teams in the Big Ten.  We turned the ball over 5 times, only scored one offensive touchdown, and still won.  Our defense is good enough now to let our offense grow and mature with Jones at QB.

A lot of people talked about Ohio State needing to find an identity on offense.  I think Meyer knows what he wants to do and it was evident against Western Michigan.  With the speed we have at receiver, we will be able to torch defenses play after play.  If Jones connected on just half of the under-thrown passes on Saturday, the Buckeyes score closer to 60 than 40.  Think about what happens when he starts hitting those deep targets consistently.  Think about what Zeke will be able to do once defenses really see Jones stretch the field and the offensive line and receivers start blocking better.  We don't need all that to happen right now.  But when it all comes together, it will be scary to watch.

Once the OSU offense gets going, it will be like unleashing the Doomsday Machine

People want the Buckeyes to be perfect now.  They forget that Ohio State was hardly perfect last year, even at the end of the season.  They criticize the play-calling because they only remember what we did and how we looked in the last three games of last year (which still wasn't perfect).  Elliot will get his inside runs, when we need him to.  Braxton Miller will start giving defenses nightmares running and throwing out of the wildcat, when we need him to.  Jones will make the big plays, when we need him to.  We will start scoring 60 points, when we need to (although, hopefully we'll never actually need to).

Of course, this is just my opinion.  Maybe I'm wrong about Urban Meyer's long-term vision for this team.  But either way, Meyer picked his quarterback, and it's Jones.  If you disagree with the three-time national championship coach, who boasts a 42 - 3 record at Ohio State, that's you're right.  But on behalf of Buckeye Nation, whose mantra (since before last year's playoff run) has been "In Urban We Trust", and for the sake of your own sanity, I suggest you make a choice.  Either you can be a fan of The Ohio State University Buckeyes and back your team, your coach, and your quarterback, or you can go root for someone else.  It's that simple.

There is no longer a "Team J.T." and a "Team Cardale".  There's only "Team OSU" and you're either on it or you're not.

I was at the Western Michigan game, and there was a guy behind me who epitomized what I hate about some "fans" during quarterback controversies.  He was bashing Jones relentlessly after every incompletion and every scramble that didn't pick up a first down.  Now, to be fair, I was expressing my fair share of frustration at some of the particularly bad passes.  But for this guy, every single missed pass was proof that J.T. should have been playing, and he didn't hesitate to vocalize that each and every time.  He wondered out loud "how much they're paying Urban to start Jones" (I don't know who "they" are and what their incentive is, but I'm sure this made sense in his simple little mind).  He even went as far as wishing that Jones break his leg (and I secretly hoped for the same fate for this "fan" as he begrudgingly left the stands, moments after Barrett threw an interception on his first drive of the game).

There is no longer a "Team J.T." and a "Team Cardale".  There's only "Team OSU" and you're either on it or you're not.

---

Now, I realize that the knucklehead behind me is an extreme case.  Most fans, even the ones griping about Jones being the starter, are better than that.  But it shows the absurdity of this pessimistic and ultra -critical viewpoint that so many people seem to have regarding this team.  We are 4 - 0.  Our team isn't perfect, quarterback included, but they're getting better.  The people who are slamming Jones are the same people who were screaming "Fire Fickell" at the top of their lungs a short time ago.  Now we boast one of the best defenses in the country, headlined by quite possibly the best group of linebackers in the nation.  Those same people are now all aboard the Silver Bullet Express.  Did they forget that Luke Fickell is the engineer of this QB-devouring pain-train?

There will always be fans who find something to complain about.  We're 4 - 0.  If you want to question every coaching decision and whine and moan and generally feel bad about your team, go root for the Cleveland Browns.  And don't come crawling back when we are sucker-punching Michigan State and roundhouse kicking that team up north and bludgeoning anyone else on our path to playoff trophy number two.

As for me?  I'll be enjoying the ride, waving my cowboy hat in the air, yelling "Waaaahoooo!" as Jones drops another bomb at the doorstep of our enemies.  Well... except for the cowboy hat part.  This isn't the damn Big 12.

College Football Week 4 Recap

Let's first see how my Week 4 Bold Predictions turned out:

1. Texas Tech outguns TCU in Lubbock

This game came down to the wire, as I thought it might, but TCU survived by way of a crazy 4th-and-goal tipped pass with 23 seconds left on the clock.  Perhaps even crazier was Texas Tech's last-ditch effort on the final play of the game, which involved a Hail Mary pass and multiple laterals, but ultimately failed.  The final result was a 55 - 52 win for the Horned Frogs.

2. Virginia Tech falls to East Carolina for second straight year

The quality of the Buckeyes' best win to-date took a hit on Saturday as the Hokies lost to the Pirates once again.  East Carolina toppled Virginia Tech, 35 - 28, giving both teams a 2-2 record to start the year.

3. Ohio State's defense keeps the Broncos out of the end zone

I was pretty close with my score prediction (38 - 6 vs 38 - 12) but Western Michigan reached the end zone twice, making this another failed prediction.  I guess I should have called for Ohio State to keep the Bronco's out of the uprights, as WMU's kicking game had major issues (0 of 2 on field goals, 0 of 1 on extra points).  The Buckeyes' defense and special teams shined overall once again, but the offense definitely made strides as well.  It's still a work in progress, but I think they're starting to find their identity.

4. Bobcats notch surprise win over Gophers

Another prediction I narrowly missed, as Minnesota found just enough offense to overcome the Bobcats' upset bid, 27 - 24.  Ohio had a chance to tie it with a 53-yard field goal, but a controversial delay of game penalty moved them back 5 yards, and OU opted to try a Hail Mary instead, which fell incomplete as time expired.  A big battle in Evanston looms for the Gophers next week, as they prepare to face 16th ranked Northwestern.

5. Arizona State changes their fight song to Florence + The Machine's "Shake It Out"

They didn't change their fight song, but maybe they should have, as they were unable to shake USC in their conference opener.  The Sun Devils took a 42 - 14 drubbing at the hands of the Trojans, and things don't look to get any easier next week as they travel to UCLA.

Week 4 record: 1 - 4
Overall record: 4 - 16

I'm sensing a pattern here and I don't like it...

Other headlines from week 4:

UCLA, Utah emerge as front-runners in Pac 12

Not too many people saw it coming, but the Bruins and Utes look like the best teams out west right now.  These two squads absolutely dominated ranked conference opponents Oregon and Arizona, and with other Pac 12 contenders USC and Arizona State each already having 1 and 2 losses, respectively, UCLA and Utah look like the teams to beat.  There's still a lot of football to be played, so things could certainly change, but the November 21 showdown between these two could be huge, not just in terms of the Pac 12 race, but potential playoff implications as well.

Is Michigan back?

Speaking of Utah, the Wolverines' 7-point loss in Salt Lake City suddenly doesn't look so bad.  And following their 31 - 0 blowout win over BYU, Michigan is back in the rankings for the first time since 2013.  I think it's still too early to declare that Harbaugh has them back to the greatness their fans desperately lust after, but they're definitely getting better.

A tale of two punters

Virginia Tech and Texas both went down on Saturday, but their punters' roles in the defeats couldn't have been more different.  The Hokies lost, despite punter A.J. Hughes' herculean effort following a bad snap.  The ball sailed well over Hughes' head and into the end zone, but he was able to run back to recover the football and get the punt off (and a good one at that) before getting tackled and without having it blocked.  Virginia Tech still gave up a touchdown on the ensuing drive, and would ultimately lose by 7, but you certainly can't blame their punter.  As for Texas' loss, well... you kind of can blame the punter.  In the final minute of the fourth quarter, tied at 27 with Oklahoma State, the Longhorns faced 4th and 11 on their own 24 and wisely opted to punt.  But the ball went right through the hands of the true freshman punter, and while he was able to recover it and kick it, the resulting punt netted minus 6 yards, putting the Cowboys in position for an easy field goal to win the game.  You can bet he will be kicking himself for a long time after that mistake... sorry.

Punter 1:

Punter 2:

Ohio State of Mind: Western Michigan

Relax. Take a deep breath. Play football.

Let's get back to the basics.  Stop worrying about the explosive plays and focus on that next first down.  3 yards here, 4 yards there.  Be patient.  The big plays will come if we are patient.

Calm down. Just play football.

You can't beat them all on your own.  Work as hard as you can to beat the guy in front of you.  If we each do that, we will succeed.  Individually, we don't stand a chance.  As a team, we are unstoppable.

Smile. Have fun.  Just play some damn football.

We don't have to beat every team on the schedule by 50 points.  We just have to beat the next team on the schedule.  It doesn't matter if we win by 1 or 100. The goal is simple: just win.

Chill. Be smart.  Play sound football.

Take care of the football.  Take care of the football. Then, when you're done with that, take care of the football some more.  The football is your baby.  Would you trust your baby with some kids from Kalamazoo, Michigan? I didn't think so.

Forget about everything else and just play.

Forget about last year.  Forget about the number one ranking.  Forget about the critics and the experts and every person saying we can't do it or we're not good enough.  Forget about who's behind you on the depth chart or who's in front of you on the depth chart because we are a family.  We are nine units strong.

Get loose.  Get rowdy.  Let's play some Buckeye football.

Go Bucks.  Beat Western Michigan.