masking

Saturday, December 17, 2016

College Football Three and Out: Bowl Season

First and 4: Recapping week 14



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Oklahoma State claims Big 12 title with win over Sooners

Oklahoma won the Big 12 for the second year in a row, but this time they'll miss the playoffs due to early season losses to Houston and Ohio State.  The Sooners' win helped boost the Buckeyes' resume, though they would have likely stayed in the top 4 either way.

B1G Bold Prediction: Penn State beats Wisconsin by double-digits

At first, it appeared that it would be Wisconsin on the right side of a blowout win.  But PSU has been a great second-half team this year and it was no different in Indy.  They rallied back from a 21-point deficit to beat the Badgers by 7.  It wasn't enough to propel the Nittany Lions into the playoffs though, as Washington held on to the #4 spot with a big win over Colorado in the PAC-12 title game.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU drops out of top 4 in final set of rankings

Like I said last week, I didn't really think this would happen.  An Oklahoma victory paired with a close Big Ten championship game helped Ohio State slide no further than 3rd, despite not playing.  The Buckeyes now enter the playoffs for the second time, but face a familiar foe in Clemson.  The Tigers defeated OSU in the 2014 Orange Bowl 40 - 35 after a disappointing loss to MSU in the B1G title game.  This match-up feels very different, not only because of the turnover on rosters, but from a motivation standpoint as well.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Florida scores a touchdown against Alabama

They scored two!

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: The team ranked 5th on Sunday is sad

You better believe the Nittany Lions are sad, mad, and a slew of other things right now.  But will they use that frustration positively to prepare for a tough Rose Bowl match-up with USC?  Or will their disappointment result in a letdown?  If you told any Penn State player or fan early in the season that they'd be playing in the Rose Bowl they would have undoubtedly been thrilled, but they certainly had their eye on more when they rallied to beat Wisconsin. The team that has finished 5th in the final playoff rankings the first two years of the new system went on to lose their bowl game.

Week 14 record: 2 - 3
2016 record: 32 - 38


Second and 3: Predicting the future!



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Auburn claims Sugar Bowl victory over Oklahoma

The Sooners had a rough start to the season, beginning 1-2.  But since then, they've rattled off 9 straight wins and claimed an outright Big 12 title.  Auburn also started 1-2, before winning 6 straight, but finished the season by losing two of their last three, including an ugly loss to Georgia.  However, I think the lack of quality teams in the Big 12, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, has masked some flaws for Oklahoma and they've struggled against truly good defenses.  The Tigers have a decent defense and I think they win this game.

B1G Bold Prediction: Big Ten wins 3 or fewer bowl games

The league placed 4 teams in New Year's Six bowls, the most of any conference in the short history of the playoff, which really highlights what has been a great year for the Big Ten.  But as a result, bowl match-ups are tougher for all B1G members.  I could see the Big Ten winning two or even three of those NY6 Bowls, but the prospects outside of those games don't look good.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Silver Bullets record 3 or more turnovers

Clemson and Ohio State appear so evenly matched, that I think this game will come down to who can take care of the football.  That's good for the Buckeyes, who are ranked third nationally in turnover margin and have a hawkish secondary.  Meanwhile, Clemson is ranked 76th in the same category and Watson has had a bit of a problem with interceptions this season.  The Heisman runner-up makes some big plays early on but some costly mistakes later in the game to doom the Tigers.  OSU wins, 38 - 34.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Washington stuns Alabama

People are already claiming this year's Tide as one of the greatest teams ever, not just at Alabama but anywhere.  I believe they're good, but maybe not as good as advertised.  And all the hype, all the pressure to go 15-0 - something that has never been done before, will catch up to these young kids.  Peterson has been outstanding at getting his teams ready for bowl games and I think the Huskies will be much more competitive than people think.  Washington by 3.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Announcers claim "Next year is their year"

It gets a bit old, doesn't it?  How many times do we have to hear that "next year is Tennessee's year"  or that we should "look out for USC next season" during bowl season?  How about we recognize the accomplishments of this year and stop pretending we have any idea how things will play out months from now with teams comprised of different players with new coaches and altered chemistry.  At least we don't have to hear about Texas being back or Notre Dame rebounding because neither of those teams made a bowl game (*sad trombone*).


Third and 2: Coming full circle



The 2016 Fiesta Bowl marks the completion of a cycle, in several ways.  The Buckeyes started the year in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl.  That's not a typo.  On January 1st of this year, Ohio State defeated Notre Dame in Glendale in their final game of the 2015 season.  It was a team with vast experience that expected to be playing for another national title.  But things didn't quite work out that way.  And so, their season ended with a trip to the desert.  This year, the Buckeyes are younger and still have one loss and no Big Ten title.  But they get a shot at the playoff.  And so, they return to the desert and as a result will have a chance to win the 2016 Fiesta Bowl for a second time, 364 days later.

But this time they face a much tougher opponent with a whole lot more on the line.  OSU hasn't beaten Clemson.  In 1978, they not only lost the game, but said goodbye to legendary coach Woody Hayes.  They didn't get a rematch until the 2014 Orange Bowl.  The Tigers beat the Buckeyes by exploiting a flawed defense and holding an injured Braxton Miller to only four touchdowns.  The former was the bigger problem, obviously, and it marked the beginning of a rejuvenation.  Meyer brought in Chris Ash, who helped rebuild the Ohio State defense.  And over the course of the championship run of 2014, they earned back the right to call themselves the Silver Bullets.  They haven't looked back.  Since giving up 40 points to Clemson in the Orange Bowl, they've allowed more than 28 points only three times.  All three of those occurrences were during the 2014 season.  It's time to complete the transformation.  It's time to beat Clemson.


Fourth down: Trust J.T.

Friday, December 2, 2016

College Football Three and Out: Week 14

First and 2: Recapping week 13



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Tigers take down Tide

The Tide rolled on and enters championship week a solid #1 and a near lock for the playoffs, even if they somehow lose to Florida in the SEC title game.  But they won't, so it doesn't matter.  Bama hasn't given up a touchdown since October 22.

B1G Bold Prediction: Iowa defeats Nebraska

The Hawkeyes didn't just win, they dominated.  They out-rushed the Cornhuskers 264-90 in a physical beat-down that ended any possibility of a trip to Indy for Mike Riley's team.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU racks up 200+ on the ground vs TTUN

What an epic game.  Michigan seemed like they were in control, but the Silver Bullets stepped up and Barrett came alive in the fourth quarter to spark a comeback victory.  It appears that the Buckeyes are headed for the playoffs, even without a conference title, right?  More on that below.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Florida knocks off FSU

The Gators just couldn't muster enough offense (as usual) to topple the Seminoles.  Up next, Florida will have the pleasure of getting annihilated by Alabama in Atlanta.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: I avoid the use of the 13th letter in this post

I did it!  There was not a single 'M' in last week's Three and Out.  So, yeah, you can pretty much thank me for the Buckeyes' victory over Michigan in The Game.

Week 13 record: 3 - 2
2016 record: 30 - 35

Second and 12: Predicting the future!



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Oklahoma State claims Big 12 title with win over Sooners

The Sooners are double-digit favorites against their rivals in Bedlam.  But let's be honest, in the Big 12 it sometimes just comes down to who has the ball last.  Perhaps it will be the Cowboys?  They win, 49 - 42.

B1G Bold Prediction: Penn State beats Wisconsin by double-digits

It would be bad for the Buckeyes if Oklahoma loses.  It would be worse if Penn State wins the Big Ten decisively.  The Nittany Lions have looked like a different team since slaying Ohio State.  PSU by 12.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU drops out of top 4 in final set of rankings

If Alabama, Clemson, and Washington all win, and Penn State wins big, there is a slight chance Ohio State drops out of the playoff picture.  I actually don't think it will happen, but it's hard to predict exactly how the committee will treat this scenario, since it's never happened before.  It's still early in the playoff era, and we've seen how things can get really shaken up after championship week, so it's anyone's guess how this will play out.  We will find out 12 noon on Sunday.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Florida scores a touchdown against Alabama

Why not?  Tide still rolls, 38 - 12.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: The team ranked 5th on Sunday is sad

I'm not going to lie - I hope it's Michigan.


Third and 5: What's wrong with the Big 12?



They were shut out of the top 4 in year 1 of the playoff, and it looks like it will happen again this season.  Oklahoma nabbed the #4 spot last year, but likely wouldn't have made it if Stanford avoided an inexplicable loss to Northwestern in week 1, or possibly even if the same Cardinal team hadn't handed Notre Dame a second loss in the final week of the regular season.  It begs the question, why does it seem like the Big 12 is always on the outside looking in, or at best, the last Power 5 conference to get a shot?

A lot of folks point to the lack of a conference championship game, and there is some merit to that.  It's one less game, and by extension, one less chance to impress the committee.  Playing that 13th game against another ranked opponent just hours before the final rankings come out would certainly seem to help a team's cause.  So, good news for Big 12 fans - you'll get a championship game again starting next year!  Except, it's the dumbest thing ever.  Since the league decided not to expand, the Big 12 still consists of only 10 teams, and therefore each team will continue to play every other team each season.  That means that the Big 12 title game will always be a rematch game.  That's not the worst thing in the world - it's certainly possible in other conferences as well.  But, because the Big 12 tries to back-load the schedule - ie, they try to match up the best teams later in the year - the likelihood of a late-season rematch increases.

Take this year for example, which beautifully illustrates how absurd this setup will be.  Oklahoma will take on Oklahoma State in their end-of-season rivalry game this weekend.  If they had the conference title game this year, you know who would play in that game the following week?  Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.  That's regardless of the outcome of their first game.  Not only does it make their first meeting pointless for the sake of the conference championship, but it actually hurts both teams' playoff chances.  Imagine if both teams had only one loss coming into Bedlam.  Win that game and guess what?  You've got to beat your rival again next week.  If the teams split the games, now both have 2 losses and are likely out of the playoff hunt.

So, the way their conference is set up, I think adding a championship game will actually hurt the league's playoff chances.  If they really wanted to go that route they should have invited Houston and a few others to join and then split into divisions.  But that still doesn't answer the question - what's wrong with the Big 12?  Well, simply put, they just haven't been playing very good football.  Defenses down there are simply nonexistent and it really shows when they take on foes in out-of-conference play.  Get better defensive coaches, win your September games, and then prove yourself in the postseason.  Until then, better luck next time.


Fourth down: Nothing left to do now but take a knee.