College Football Three and Out: Week 13

First and HATE: Recapping week 12

Top-10 Bold Prediction: West Virginia defeats Stoops' squad

WVU just had excessive self-inflicted wounds that essentially ended this one early.  Between the red zone turnovers, costly penalties, and defensive breakdowns, they let the Sooners build a big lead and could never catch up.  Perhaps it was the pressure of the national spotlight, or they were just outplayed (or both), but the loss took West Virginia out of the playoff picture while leaving hope for the Sooners.

B1G Bold Prediction: TTUN loses again

No, but it was a closer result than a lot of people expected.  Their offense sputtered a bit with O'Korn under center, as I guessed would happen.  But their defense was up to the task and played well enough to secure the win, setting up a huge clash with the Buckeyes this week.  The question throughout this week is whether it will be O'Korn or Speight starting in the Shoe, as there are reports now that Speight is practicing.  Were the Wolverines downplaying the injury originally or are they being deceptively hopeful now?  Either way, it appears there is a bit of trickery afoot.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Spartans stay within one score into 4th quarter

It played out how I thought it would, with Ohio State clinging to a touchdown lead heading into the final quarter, although the final score was even closer than I expected.  Dantonio rolled the dice by going for two late, and it didn't work out for the Spartans.  But now the Buckeyes turn their attention to their hated archrivals as they face off with playoff hopes of both schools on the line.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Cowboys easily beat Horned Frogs

As I said last week, TCU is bad.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Wolverines learn how to tackle properly

I guess they did, since they held the Hoosiers to only 10 points.

Week 12 record: 3 - 2

2016 record: 27 - 33

Second and HATE: Predicting the future!

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Tigers take down Tide

Anything can happen in the Iron Bowl (and it has).  However, the interesting thing is, even if Saban loses, his squad can still probably get into the playoffs with a win over Florida to clinch the SEC title.  Perhaps Auburn can win, 33 - 30.

B1G Bold Prediction: Iowa defeats Nebraska

The Hawkeyes have surely gained confidence after upsetting the Wolverines and shutting out the Illini.  I think they take care of business in Iowa city with a big win over the Cornhuskers, 27 - 21.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU racks up 200+ on the ground vs TTUN

Ohio State ranks 8th in the country in rushing offense, with 2894 yards over 11 contests, while their rivals to the north are 10th best in stopping the run, allowing only 1195 yards over that stretch.  It sounds cliche, but this one will likely be decided in the trenches.  The Buckeye O-line has been inconsistent this year but they will be laser focused for this one.  Fueled by hate and led by Weber, the Bucks will run around, over, and through the Wolverines, en route to a 35 - 24 victory.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Florida knocks off FSU

The Gators were left for dead in the playoff race not long ago. But what would happen if they were to beat Florida State and then win the SEC? It would not be unreasonable to picture an 11-2 SEC winner in the playoff, but where would that leave the Tide if they are 12-1?  Things could get interesting, but first things first - the Gators have to take on the Noles. I think Florida's defense will terrorize the FSU offensive line which has been sketchy all year.  The Noles have won 5 of the last 6 vs the Gators and have the edge with regard to overall talent and coaching, but Florida sneaks away with this one by forcing a few costly turnovers, 22 - 20.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: I avoid the use of the 13th letter in this post

I've gone this far without using it (did you notice?), just a little further and I'll start this week 1-0.

Third and HATE: This is war

Forget the playoffs.  Forget Big Ten titles.  Forget division titles.  Forget wins and losses.  There is only one thing now.

BEAT TTUN

Fourth down

College Football Three and Out: Week 12

First and 2: Recapping week 11

Top-10 Bold Prediction: USC upsets Washington

Washington was just one of a slew of highly ranked teams to go down on Saturday.  The question is, if the Huskies bounce back and still win the Pac 12 with only one loss on their resume, can they still make the playoffs? History would tell us yes, but this is shaping up to be a strange season, and 2 years with the playoff committee doesn't give us a lot of data.

B1G Bold Prediction: Iowa shocks Michigan

Well, for the second straight year the Wolverines found a way to screw over the Buckeyes by losing. I guess that is their greatest weapon against Ohio State.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU returns a punt for TD

There were no special teams or defensive scores for the Buckeyes, but the offense really didn't need any help.  Ohio State won 62 - 3 for the second week in a row, while chaos erupted elsewhere in the college football landscape. The upsets mostly help OSU, save for the aforementioned loss by Michigan.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Bears rebound to beat Sooners

Baylor continues to plummet, as Oklahoma handily defeated them and still appears firmly in control in the Big 12 race.  More bad news came for the Bears this week when they learned that QB Seth Russell will undergo season-ending surgery on his ankle. I can't help but feel sorry for the guy, especially since he also missed a large portion of last season due to a neck injury.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Someone punts in Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State

There were actually several punts in this one, but many more touchdowns.  And if it wasn't for a missed PAT that would have tied the game with less than 2 minutes left, there would have been even more scores.  But as it went, the Cowboys survived, 45-44.

Week 11 record: 3 - 2

2016 record: 24 - 31

Second and 3: Predicting the future!

Top-10 Bold Prediction: West Virginia defeats Oklahoma

I don't see a repeat of the chaos we saw last week in the top 10, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Sooners stumble in a night game at Morgantown.  Either way, one of these teams will lose any chance at a playoff spot Saturday.  WVU by 3.

B1G Bold Prediction: Michigan loses again

The Wolverines will likely turn to backup QB John O'Korn when Indiana comes to Ann Arbor, with rumors circulating that starter Wilton Speight suffered a broken collarbone in the loss to Iowa. Harbaugh (in true Harbaugh form) refuses to comment one way or the other on the matter, but has admitted that Speight is questionable for Saturday. O'Korn has experience, but it remains to be seen how exactly the change might affect the Michigan offense. Perhaps the Hoosiers can pull off the upset, 23-20.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Spartans stay within one score into 4th quarter

Michigan State's football team is a mess this year. Their victory over Rutgers last week was their first win in conference play, and they won't make a bowl game no matter what happens in their last two games.  Vegas has the Buckeyes as 22.5 point favorites, but there are a lot of reasons to expect a much closer result.  Sparty obviously has talent on the roster, as they won the Big Ten and competed participated in the playoffs last year. They may have lost some key pieces from that 2015 squad, but still returned a handful of starters on both sides of the ball. A competitive game against the Wolverines further supports the notion that they have been playing below their potential. If there are two games you can guarantee MSU will be ready for, regardless of the state of their program, it's Michigan and Ohio State.  Expect a tough, physical game that drags into the fourth quarter. A late touchdown seals the win for OSU, though,  31 - 17.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Oklahoma State easily beats TCU

For some reason, TCU is favored in this game. TCU is not good. They may have just beaten Baylor (who is also not good) by 40 points, but let's look at what happened before that: they lost at home to Texas Tech, scoring only 17 points in regulation against the nation's worst defense.  They got crushed by West Virginia.  They needed a fourth-quarter rally to barely beat a Kansas team whose only win came in week 1 against Rhode Island. They were thoroughly dominated by Oklahoma (despite a close final score). Before that was a win over Iowa State (yippee) and a soft non-conference schedule that included a loss to Arkansas.  Oklahoma State isn't great, but they win this game easily, 43 - 24.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Michigan players learn how to tackle properly

Michigan team captain Chris Wormley trucks an old Iowa fan after the game pic.twitter.com/mHod2JOlLe

— Heavens! (@HeavensHawkeye) November 15, 2016

He stays high, doesn't wrap up, I mean come on - this is anything but textbook technique.  The Wolverines will have to tackle better to have a chance against Indiana.

Third and 4: Your Buckeye rooting guide for the rest of the season

We're approaching the end of the regular season, and things are anything but clear for the Buckeyes. What is apparent though is that Ohio State does not control its own destiny, certainly in the B1G but possibly also in the playoff race.  They may be ranked #2 currently, but there's no guarantee they'll be in the top 4 by the end of the year, even if they win out.  So, who should we root for (other than OSU, obviously) and who should we root against in these final weeks?  Let's start with the "againsts", as they are a bit simpler:

Root against...

Penn State

This is a no-brainer and the most important outside factor.  If PSU loses another regular season Big Ten game, the Buckeyes will gain control of their own destiny.  If that happens, you can throw out the rest of this list because it won't matter what anyone else does. If Penn State wins and ends up representing the East Division in the B1G title game, we would still want to root against them as they would appear to be in better position than Wisconsin (or Nebraska) to jump us because of the head-to-head advantage.

Remaining schedule: at Rutgers, vs Michigan State, possible B1G title game

Washington

Another loss for the Huskies means the Pac 12 winner will have at least two losses.  Depending on who that is, it might result in the conference missing the playoff again, freeing up a spot in the top 4.

Remaining schedule: vs Arizona State, at Washington State, possible Pac 12 title game

Clemson

A second loss seems unlikely, but imagine if the Tigers stumble in the ACC championship game. That would leave only Louisville as a potential representative for their conference.

Remaining schedule: at Wake Forest, vs South Carolina, possible ACC title game

Louisville

Bye-bye birdies!  Someone should send Tom Herman a fruit basket.  Did you know he founded MENSA?

Alabama

With Auburn losing to Georgia, we're now safe to root against the Tide in all of their remaining games, including the SEC title game. A loss there could doom the SEC. Wouldn't that be lovely?  Don't hold your breath though...

Remaining schedule: vs Chattanooga, vs Auburn, SEC title game

Florida (except against Bama)

Might as well hope the Gators drop another one, just to make sure Bama's opponent out of the East is certifiable trash. This is not only possible, but likely, with games left at LSU and at FSU.  If they lose to LSU, 3-loss Tennessee will take their place in Atlanta (assuming the Vols take care of business vs Missouri and Vanderbilt).

Remaining schedule: at LSU, at Florida State, possible SEC title game

Now for the other side.

Root for...

Wisconsin

The Badgers remain one of the Buckeyes' signature victories. Any loss by Wisconsin dilutes that win. And if it ends up as Badgers vs Nittany Lions in the Big Ten title game, we definitely have a better argument to stay ranked ahead of a B1G champ Wisconsin team, due to the difference in head-to-head results.

Remaining schedule: at Purdue, vs Minnesota, possible B1G title game

Oklahoma

Same goes for the Sooners.  The better they look, the better Ohio State looks.  If they win the Big 12, it's good news for us.  If they don't win their conference, we should hope for another West Virginia loss. Another loss for Oklahoma State wouldn't hurt either, but it seems improbable that both those teams would drop another game and Oklahoma would not win the Big 12.

Remaining schedule: at West Virginia, vs Oklahoma State

Nebraska

Seeing a trend here?  We want our ranked opponents to stay ranked.  If the Cornhuskers make it to Indy instead of the Badgers, we should root for them over Penn State.

Remaining schedule: vs Maryland, at Iowa, possible B1G title game

Michigan (against Indiana)

Sorry, no, I just can't.  Nope.  I can't tell you to root for the Wolverines.  It would be in the Buckeyes' best interest for Michigan to come to the Horseshoe still ranked 3rd, but I will not root for them.  Nor will I tell you to.

Remaining schedule: vs Indiana, at Ohio State

Northwestern

The Wildcats may not be ranked (nor will they be if they win out), but with games against Minnesota and Illinois left (two teams we don't play this year) it can only help our strength of schedule for Fitzgerald's guys to finish on the right side of .500.

Remaining schedule: at Minnesota, vs Illinois

Tulsa

No one is pretending that Tulsa is a signature win, but the Golden Hurricane is 7-3 on the year, with their only other losses coming from Houston and Navy.  If they can finish 9-3 it would provide another slight SoS boost.

Remaining schedule: at UCF, vs Cincinnati

Bowling Green

Every little bit helps, right?

Remaining schedule: vs Buffalo

That about covers it. For match-ups not involving any of the teams I mentioned, I would say root against the higher ranked team as a rule. In particular, root against Pac 12 / Big 12 teams currently hanging around in the low teens.  But in general, I like the Buckeyes' chances if they win out, regardless of what happens with Penn State and the rest of the top 25.

Fourth down: It's payback time. Take no prisoners.

College Football Three and Out: Week 11

First and 10: Recapping week 10

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Alabama stumbles in Death Valley

The SEC West heavy-hitters were locked in a scoreless tie heading into the fourth quarter, but the Crimson Tide eventually came out on top in a 10-0 victory.  Their last real test of the regular season will come in the final week vs Auburn.

B1G Bold Prediction: Northwestern handles tired Badgers

It was another slug-fest for Wisconsin, but they managed to secure the 21-7 win and take control in the B1G West race.  They also get a break until their regular season finale, as they close out the year with matches against Illinois, Purdue, and a big rivlary game against the Gophers, who have quietly earned a 7-2 record.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Nebraska held to 7 points or fewer in 4th quarter

Forget about the fourth quarter, the Cornhuskers were limited to just 3 points the entire game.  The offense came alive as well, as the Buckeyes scored 62 points and didn't punt once.  The blowout was the second largest ever between top-10 teams.  If Ohio State can execute at the same level the rest of the way (or at least against Michigan and into the postseason), Meyer will have a shot to add another title to his resume.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Cal derails Washington in Berkeley

The Bears kept pace with the Huskies for most of the first half, but fell behind in a stretch from the middle of the second through the first few minutes of the quarter, of which they gave up 38 unanswered points. With Texas A&M losing, the victory allowed Washington to move up to the #4 spot.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Mark May says something idiotic

First he used the expression, "as quick as a hiccup." Then he said that Nebraska would beat Ohio State in overtime. I'm sure there was more stupidity that I missed, too.

Week 10 record: 2 - 3

2016 record: 21 - 29

Second and 2: Predicting the future!

Top-10 Bold Prediction: USC upsets Washington

I'm picking on the Huskies again.  But after starting 1-3, the Trojans have looked like one of the best teams in the Pac 12.  I think they deliver a big blow to Washington's playoff hopes with a win in Seattle.  USC by 2.

B1G Bold Prediction: Iowa shocks Michigan

This would be potentially bad news for the Buckeyes.  Let's hope the Wolverines don't screw this one up.  See my third down analysis for what could happen if I get this prediction right, and what it means for Ohio State.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU returns a punt for TD

Dontre Wilson has handled punt return duties for Ohio State for what seems like forever, and he's always been kind of a high risk / high reward player in that role. But this year, it's seemed more like high risk / no reward, and it finally prompted Meyer to make a change. It sounds like Samuel will get first crack at it but I could see some other young guys getting a shot as well. I think we see the benefit right away, as one of them takes it back for six. It will just be icing on the cake, though, as the Buckeyes coast to a 52 - 16 win.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Bears rebound to beat Sooners

Baylor has lost two in a row, including a 62 - 22 demolition at the hands of TCU last week.  Their only hope to keep their Big 12 title hopes alive is to take down Oklahoma this Saturday.  It's a long shot, but who knows?  Maybe Baylor wins, 48 - 47?

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Someone punts in Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State

The over/under on this game is 110.

Third and 1: Can Buckeyes make playoff without B1G title?

Chances are, if Ohio State wins out, they'd represent the East in the Big Ten Championship. But there is a scenario in which they wouldn't get that shot, even if they finish 11-1.  If Michigan loses to either Iowa or Indiana and Penn State wins out, then a Buckeye victory over the Wolverines would result in a two-way tie between OSU and PSU. The Nittany Lions' head-to-head win would act as the tiebreaker, sending them to Indy.  If that sounds familiar, it's because the same thing happened to the Buckeyes last year, and we all know how that turned out. But do Ohio State's playoff hopes vanish if this scenario plays out again? Let's examine the situation.

First, let's assume that Alabama, Clemson, and Washington all win out (we'll revisit the other side of that coin later).  Those 3 would be locks for the top 3 spots, having perfect records and conference titles to their names.  But what team gets the final spot?  There are a few possibilities for who might challenge the Buckeyes for it:

The Big Ten champion

The greatest threat might come from within OSU's own conference, as we saw happen last year.  The biggest difference being that last season there were two 1-loss teams playing in Indianapolis. In this scenario the B1G winner would have at least two losses. Wisconsin is best positioned in terms of its current ranking, but the Bucks have a head-to-head victory over the Badgers, in Madison nonetheless. We know the committee loves conference champions, but would that title really trump a better record and head-to-head? I would think not, but that's uncharted territory.  Then there's Penn State. If the Nittany Lions win in Indy it creates a tough spot for OSU. The loss in Happy Valley would make it really hard for the committee to keep the Buckeyes ranked ahead of a 11-2 PSU conference champion. But is Penn State really playoff material? Their victory might result in the Big Ten missing the playoffs altogether. If anyone else from the West makes it to Indy and beats the Nittany Lions (such as Nebraska or Minnesota), the Bucks would be in good shape.  The Cornhuskers' destruction in Columbus likely ended any potential playoff push, and the Gophers don't have a strong enough resume to make the playoff (they're currently unranked), even if they win out.

Louisville

The Cardinals would be in a similar place as the Buckeyes if this scenario materializes, having a single loss but no conference or division title.  But OSU's superior strength of schedule would probably give them the nod.  The committee already has Ohio State ahead of Louisville, and the Bucks still have what will be a highly ranked Michigan team on the schedule (even if they lose a game, they'd still probably be in the top ten when they come to Columbus).  The best team Louisville still has to play is Houston.

The Big 12 champion

If Oklahoma wins out, they would have a shot at the playoff, but I don't think they could leapfrog the Buckeyes.  OSU dominated the Sooners in Norman, and the Big 12 is pretty unanimously viewed as the weakest Power 5 conference this year.  West Virginia also has a path to the playoff, if they can navigate the rest of their schedule not only unscathed, but winning in dominating fashion.  Still, I don't know if they would surpass Ohio State, because of the aforementioned perception of their conference.  That, and they played teams a combined 7 - 11 out of conference (and Youngstown State).

Auburn

What would happen if Alabama doesn't win out?  If Auburn beats the Tide, the Tigers would win the SEC West (assuming they beat Georgia this weekend).  If they go on to win in Atlanta, they would have a decent argument to reach the top four, like it or not.  Could Alabama stay in the top 4, with only one loss?  It's certainly possible.  The prospect of two teams from a single conference getting into a four-team playoff is ludicrous to me, but it's still too early in the playoff era to really know how the committee would treat some of these fringe cases.

In conclusion, I think if the Buckeyes can finish the regular season with just one loss, they'll be in pretty good shape regardless of what Penn State and Michigan do.  And if Clemson or Washington loses, it would make the path even clearer, especially if the loss happens in a conference title game (or against Washington State for the Huskies).  But obviously, they would love to be able to claim a Big Ten title and leave no doubt that they're one of the four best teams in the country.  For now, the Bucks just have to stay focused on the next game, and keep on winning.

Fourth down: fourth down? What's a fourth down?

College Football Three and Out: Week 10

First and 10: Recapping week 9

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Florida State downs Clemson

It was close, but some late penalties cost the Seminoles in this one.  That, and the fact that their offensive line more closely resembles swiss cheese than a capable blocking unit.  I will be surprised if FSU QB Deondre Francois makes it through the rest of the season with all of his bones intact, as he has gotten pummeled thus far.  As for Clemson, they will try to win out against a very manageable slate of remaining games to get in the playoffs for the second consecutive year.  But can they avoid a letdown in the meantime?

B1G Bold Prediction: Michigan State stuns Michigan again

The final score was much closer than many expected, but the Wolverines controlled this game for the most part.  It was Michigan's first win over their in-state rivals in four years and only their second since 2007.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Angry Buckeyes score 50+ on Wildcats

I was right that the OSU offense would come out firing on all cylinders, but it didn't last long.  They looked sharp, scoring a touchdown on their first possession for the first time this year, and then promptly returned to inconsistency.  They just don't look like the same team that went into Norman and rocked the Sooners.  Still, you have to consider how young they are, and hope that they will get better as the season continues.  They will need to be ready this week, though, with the #10 Cornhuskers coming to town.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Cowboys tame the Broncos

Boise State was just one of a number of undefeated teams that fell last week.  They looked like they were in good position to get a New Year's Six bid before, but now it will be an uphill battle just to win their division, with the Cowboys now having the lead and potential tie-breaker over the Broncos.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Kansas holds Oklahoma under 100 points

Wow.  Such defense.

Week 9 record: 2 - 3

2016 record: 19 - 26

Second and 7: Predicting the future!

Top-10 Bold Prediction: Alabama stumbles in Death Valley

In 1997, there were two ties in the NFL, the Indians lost game 7 of the World Series in extra innings, and the LSU tigers defeated the #1 ranked team in the country at home.  This year, there have been two ties in the NFL and the Indians just lost game 7 of the World Series in extra innings.  Alabama, currently ranked #1, comes to Baton Rouge to play LSU this Saturday.  Coincidence or the Illuminati?

B1G Bold Prediction: Northwestern handles tired Badgers

It's been a brutal stretch for Wisconsin.  Four out of their five last opponents have been ranked in the top 10 (though Michigan State's #8 ranking turned out to be a damn lie).  They have to be exhausted, mentally and physically.  Heading to Evanston to take on the 4-4 Wildcats may seem like a breather, but Fitzgerald's team has proven that they're much better now than they were at the beginning of the season, in which they started 1-3.  They've beaten the Badgers the last two years, and they'll do it again this year, 27 - 23.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: Nebraska held to 7 points or fewer in 4th quarter

The Cornhuskers are one of the best teams in the fourth quarter.  In fact, they're averaging 13.5 points in the final period of regulation.  But on the flip side, the Silver Bullets have been clutch in quarter #4 as well.  On average, they only give up 3.4 points.  And if you throw out the Penn State game,(wouldn't that be nice if we could actually do that?) in which special teams blunders allowed for costly late-game points, that average drops to 1.3 points in the 4th.  In the 'Shoe this Saturday night, look for the Buckeye defense to step up and stop a late Nebraska rally.  OSU holds on to win, 30 - 24.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Cal derails Washington in Berkeley

They might not have much to brag about in the way of defense (124th in the country) but the Golden Bears' offense might just give them a shot to upset the 5th ranked Huskies.  I think they pull it off.  Cal by 7.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: Mark May says something idiotic

No... he would never do that.

Third and 4: First CFP rankings revealed

The committee finally released their first set of playoff rankings, and there were some interesting revelations.  The first is obviously Texas A&M's #4 ranking.  It's surprising for the Aggies to be ranked this high, but it likely won't matter by season's end.  Even if they finish 11-1 (possible, but not likely in my opinion), they would need serious help to make the playoffs.  They would need Bama to drop at least 2 games (not gonna happen) for them to sneak into the SEC championship game.  Their only other path to the playoff is chaos in other Power 5 conferences.  We've already seen that the committee favors conference champs over other teams with a similar record, so they'd likely need a two-loss champ to come out of the Big Ten, ACC, or Pac 12, and even then they might be competing with other one-loss teams in a similar position as them.  So, they may be ranked fourth for now, but it won't last.

You might have noticed I didn't mention the Big 12 in my list above, which brings me to my second takeaway from the rankings, which is how the committee views the Big 12.  That is to say they view the conference as garbage, which is probably fair.  The highest ranked Big 12 team is 6-2 Oklahoma, at #14.  Up next is Baylor and West Virginia at #18 and #20, respectively, each with a 6-1 record.  It appears that any one of these teams would need a lot of things to happen to reach the top 4.  It's worth noting that the inaugural rankings for 2014 had eventual champion Ohio State at #16.  But I just don't see any of the Big 12 teams with the same opportunities to move up, unless things get really crazy in these last few weeks of college football.  But who knows?

Fourth down: Stop them.