College Football Bowl Season Bold Predictions

1. Four or more Group of 5 teams take down Power 5 opponents

There are seven bowl match-ups that can qualify here, and I think the Group of 5 teams have a shot to win the majority of them.  Bowl success has a lot to do with motivation, and many of the Power 5 teams may be disappointed with their season and feel like they don't have much to play for.  Meanwhile, the smaller schools will be excited and pumped up to play against a big-name school.  Look out for the little guy this postseason.

2. Boise State notches another Fiesta Bowl victory

Speaking of the little guy... the Fiesta Bowl has been good to the Broncos, who surprised everyone in 2007 with a stunning OT win over Oklahoma, and won again in 2010 against TCU.  Arizona comes in as the favorite, but I think Boise State wins another close one in Glendale, 28 - 24.

3. Ole Miss stifles TCU in Peach Bowl win

TCU has been a force to be reckoned with this season, on offense and defense.  The only problem is the defenses they have faced have been mediocre mostly - the best being the Wildcats' at 27th in the nation averaging 21.8 points allowed per game.  Enter Ole Miss, number one defense in the country, allowing just shy of 14 points per game.  The Rebels may struggle to move the ball, as that has been their Achilles' heal this year.  But they are the only team to beat top-ranked Alabama and I expect their defense to make enough big plays to win this one.  Ole Miss leaves Atlanta with a victory, 23 - 20.

4. Melvin Gordon claims number two spot on single-season rushing list

At 2,336 rushing yards, the Wisconsin running back is only 7 yards away from reaching number three on the list of top FBS rushers.  But, he will need another 225 yards on top of that in order to surpass Kevin Smith's 2,567 yards from 2007.  Auburn gave up an average of 246 rushing yards in their three losses, showing they can be beat on the ground, so I think Gordon can do it.  Barry Sanders' record 2,628 yards is likely out of reach, though, barring a herculean effort by the running back and offensive line.  It does make you really appreciate what Sanders did in 1988 in only 11 games (the NCAA didn't start including bowl game stats until 2002, otherwise his record would be an astonishing 2,850 yards).  With championship games and bowl games (and now, for a select few teams, playoff games), college players today have 14 or 15 games to accumulate stats.  Still, it's been an amazing year for Melvin Gordon and he'll obviously try to end his college career on a high note.

5. Baylor beats Michigan State by double-digits

The Spartans have dominated opponents this season, aside from losses to Oregon and Ohio State, whose offenses were too much for Michigan State.  That spells trouble for Sparty, as Baylor comes into the Cotton Bowl sporting the nation's top scoring offense.  I really like the Spartans, but I absolutely hate this match-up.  Like Michigan State's prior losses, I just don't think they will be able to match the Bears point-for-point.  Baylor pulls away in the fourth quarter to win it, 48 - 35.

College Football Week 15 Recap

1. Georgia Tech ends Florida State's undefeated run

I had the score prediction of 37 - 35 exactly right, but flipped the teams.  Florida State held on to beat Georgia Tech, win the ACC title, and earn a spot in the playoffs.  Looks like I was wrong about the Seminoles, as they made it through their schedule unscathed.  They will face Oregon in the Rose Bowl, underdogs for the first time this year.

2. Kansas State knocks off Baylor

The Bears came away with a 38 - 27 win but it was not enough to make the playoffs, as top teams won their conference championships, including several in blowout fashion.  A major factor that likely kept Baylor out was an abysmal out-of-conference schedule. The Bears faced FCS squad Northwestern State, one-win SMU, and a Buffalo team that is not even bowl eligible.  The co-championship with TCU, despite beating the Horned Frogs, probably didn't help their cause either.  The Bears end up in a New Years bowl against Michigan State as a consolation prize.  But can they overcome their disappointment and beat the Spartans?

3. Cardale Jones has 100+ rushing yards against Wisconsin

He may not have done much with his legs, but the 6'5" sophomore made big play after big play with his arm.  He was helped out by some fantastic performances by the rest of the offense, though.  The offensive line gave him plenty of time to throw, wide receivers made big-time catches, and Ezekiel Elliot did his part with a career-best 220 yards on the ground.  But perhaps more surprising was the Buckeye defense, who shut down the Badgers (who had averaged 37 points per game before Saturday) and effectively ended Melvin Gordon's Heisman campaign, limiting him to just 76 yards.  The result was a 59 - 0 thrashing that led to a spot in the playoffs.  Up next, Ohio State faces a tough test against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

4. Oregon's Marcus Mariota puts exclamation point on Heisman-worthy season with 5 or more touchdowns in PAC-12 title game

The Ducks' offense started a little slow, with numerous penalties costing them points early.  But once Oregon got going, things got ugly.  Mariota had another great game, as predicted, with 313 passing yards, 33 rushing yards, and 5 total touchdowns.  The Heisman ceremony is more of a formality at this point, as it looks like Mariota has the award wrapped up.  More importantly for the Ducks, they beat Arizona, 51 - 13, and head into the playoffs to face Florida State on January 1st.

5. The Big 12 changes their motto to "As many champions as we damn well please"

It looks like the decision to label TCU and Baylor as co-champs backfired, as the Big 12 was the only Power Five conference to not send a team to the playoffs.  Even if they don't change their motto,  they should probably look to change their model, as the round-robin format and lack of a championship game certainly hurt when it came time for the committee to select the top four teams.

Week 15 record: 1 - 4
Overall record: 29 - 46

Other headlines from week 15:

First playoff reveals flaw in system

It doesn't take a math genius to figure out someone was going to be left out.  With four playoff spots and five major conferences, we should have seen this coming.  But everyone assumed chaos in the final weeks would clear things up, as it usually did with the BCS system.  But the last couple of weeks were mostly chaos free, and we ended up with a logjam at the top, including an undefeated Florida State and five one-loss teams.  When the final rankings were revealed, it was the Big 12 who was left out, as co-champs Baylor and TCU sat at 5 and 6, respectively.  It's clear that something needs to change, as the Bears and Horned Frogs both had legitimate arguments to be included.  The calls are already starting (especially in Big 12 country) for expanding the playoff to eight teams.  I don't know how soon it will happen, though, as the current four-team system is slated to run through the 2025 season.  I have concerns about expanding the playoff, too, so we should be wary of jumping the gun here.  More to come on this in a later post.

SMU wins their first game, can't figure out victory formation

The Mustangs were the last remaining winless team in FBS before finally pulling off a 27 - 20 win over struggling UConn.  But they had a bit of trouble with the victory formation, which they had apparently never practiced before.  Congrats to SMU all the same, as they finally got to celebrate.  According to interim coach Tom Mason, "That locker room, it was like winning the damn national championship."

Central Michigan players learn bowl destination in fun way

CMU got creative in revealing the Chippewas' bowl game to the players.  Watch here, or below.

My College Football Rankings

I've waited to weigh in on rankings (for the most part) until now.  Here is my top 25, with a bit of an explanation for the top 4 teams.

1. Florida State

As the only undefeated team in FBS, the Seminoles take the top spot.  They may not be the best in the country, but until someone proves it, they belong here.

2. Oregon

The Ducks barely edge out Alabama for the number two spot.  Oregon got a do-over against Arizona, proving that they really are the better team.  Avenging that loss and winning the Pac-12 in dominating fashion earned them this place.

3. Alabama

Yes, they won the SEC.  But the Crimson Tide had a number of close games that could have gone either way.  Not quite as many as Florida State, but the one loss makes the difference here and is why they are a bit lower in my rankings.

4. Ohio State

The coveted fourth spot.  The loss to Virginia Tech looks bad, but it was the earliest for any of the one-loss teams.  The Buckeyes are a young squad that has improved more than any other team this year.  If Ohio State played the Hokies today, it would not even be close -  and anyone who believes differently has either not seen the Buckeyes play since week 2 or is named Mark May.  Baylor and TCU were hurt by the Big 12 not having a championship game, and possibly the fact that they were presented as co-champions.  Additionally, the lack of a championship game meant 3 bye weeks and only 12 games for the Bears and Horned Frogs.  That's one extra week of rest and preparation and one less chance to lose. On the flip side, the Buckeyes took advantage of their 13th game by absolutely demolishing Wisconsin and earning an outright Conference title.   OSU also has a better strength of schedule when compared to TCU and Baylor.  All these factors led me to agree with the committee's decision to put Ohio State in the playoffs ahead of the Big 12 co-champs.

5. Baylor
6.  TCU
7. Michigan State
8. Mississippi State
9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia Tech
11. Kansas State
12. UCLA
13. Arizona
14. Georgia
15. Missouri
16. Wisconsin
17. Arizona State
18. Clemson
19. Louisville
20. Boise State
21. Auburn
22. Nebraska
23. LSU
24. Utah
25. Minnesota

College Football Week 14 Recap

1. Four or more ranked teams lose to unranked opponents

This one started off looking good, with Marshall and UCLA both falling to unranked teams on Friday.  But while underdogs put up some pretty good fights all weekend, there were no more major upsets delivered from teams outside the top 25.

2. Mississippi State takes down Ole Miss by margin of 10+

It was Ole Miss that had this one by double digits, not Mississippi State.  The Rebels erased any possibility of a SEC championship or playoff appearance for the Bulldogs, as they beat them 31 - 17 in the Egg Bowl.

3. Ohio State's defense records four or more sacks in The Game

I was spot on with this pick, as Michigan struggled to protect quarterback Devin Gardner all game.  The Buckeyes recorded five sacks in total, including a sack-and-strip that resulted in a game-clinching touchdown.  My score prediction of 45 - 31 was pretty close as well, as Ohio State notched a 42 - 28 victory.  However, the Buckeyes may have lost something more important than The Game, as J.T. Barrett went down with a season-ending injury.  Sophomore quarterback Cardale Jones will now take the reins of the offense heading into the Big Ten Championship game against Wisconsin.  The one positive moment from the scene on Saturday as Barrett lay on the turf was an inspiring display of sportsmanship by Devin Gardner, who put aside arguably the biggest rivalry in sports to console the Ohio State quarterback.  OSU responded with a letter, thanking the Michigan senior for his act of compassion.  Well done, young man.

4. Alabama's Amari Cooper tops 200 receiving yards against Auburn

Another very accurate prediction here, as the Alabama wide receiver tied a school record (previously set by himself) of 224 receiving yards.  I nailed the margin of victory guess too, but gave both teams' defenses too much credit (41 - 30 vs actual score of 55 - 44).  Both offenses shredded the opposing team's secondary all night, but it was the Crimson Tide who were able to consistently move the ball down the stretch with big play after big play by Cooper.  The win sets up an SEC championship showdown with Missouri.  A victory there and Saban's squad is in the playoffs.

5. Melvin Gordon climbs to third on FBS rushing list

Gordon had another solid day rushing, but it wasn't quite enough to pass Marcus Allen in the record books.  He did claim the number four spot, as expected, after tallying 151 yards on the ground, putting him at 2,260 for the year.  He will try to improve on that and lead the Badgers to a win over Ohio State in Indy with the Big Ten title on the line.

Week 14 record: 2 -3
Overall record: 28 - 42

Other headlines from week 14:

Marshall suffers first loss of season

Any argument for the Thundering Herd to play in a major bowl game went out the window with a crazy 67 - 66 loss to Western Kentucky.  Neither defense seemed capable of stopping their opponent, as the score reached 49 - 42 by halftime.  The offenses slowed down a bit in the second half, and Marshall tied it in the last minute of regulation to send it to overtime.  But a gutsy call by the Hilltoppers to go for two in the first OT proved successful, and they ended the Herd's hopes of an undefeated season.  If they hadn't gone for the two-point conversion, they might still be playing today.

CFP Committee drops Florida State again, sets dangerous precedent

While I've predicted the Seminoles to lose numerous times, and made my feelings about Jameis Winston abundantly clear, I still have to give credit where credit is due.  Florida State is the only remaining undefeated FBS team and while they often don't look great, they have always found a way to win.  But the committee has gradually dropped the Seminoles, putting them most recently at #4 behind three one-loss teams.  I understand that they need to consider strength of schedule and other intangible factors, but those should be used as tie-breakers when comparing teams with the same record.  The ACC may not be the best conference, but they are still Power Five (and went 4 - 0 against the SEC this past weekend).  There is no reason for Florida State to be anything less than #1 in the rankings.  Now, FSU fans don't have to be too worried - a win against Georgia Tech in the ACC championship should guarantee them a spot in the playoffs.  But what is disconcerting about how the committee has treated the Seminoles is the precedent it sets.  They throw around terms like "eye test" and "style points" when determining rankings. This is football, not a beauty pageant, so winning should be the first determining factor, and everything else should be secondary.  The fact that the CFP committee doesn't see it that way is very scary. 

Nebraska's "butt punt"

You've probably seen the legendary "butt fumble".  But have you seen a "butt punt"?  I don't care what ESPN says, it sure looked like a butt punt to me.  Judge for yourself: watch here, or below.

College Football Week 15 Bold Predictions

1. Georgia Tech ends Florida State's undefeated run

I'm taking one last stab at this one.  The Seminoles have played pretty much everyone close, so I don't expect this one to be any different.  Georgia Tech also runs a very effective triple-option, for which Florida State only has a week to prepare.  Yellow Jackets get it done, 37 - 35.

2. Kansas State knocks off Baylor

The Bears will be rooting against teams ahead of them and hoping the committee considers their win over TCU when picking the top 4. I don't think it ends up mattering though, as Kansas State takes Baylor out of the conversation.  Wildcats notch a big win as the Bears try to rally but fall short, 43 - 40.

3. Cardale Jones has 100+ rushing yards against Wisconsin

For the second time this year, the Buckeyes will have to replace a heisman candidate quarterback.  This time it's Cardale Jones who will have to step up, a guy who's built like a tank with a cannon for an arm.  He faces a tough challenge, though, in his first career start facing a stingy Wisconsin defense.  But he's proven he can run the offense, albeit against weaker teams with the game already well in hand. And he's already shown he's got up (and up).  He has some early jitters but loosens up in the second quarter with some long runs.  The game stays close throughout, with Wisconsin holding a lead late into the fourth quarter.  But Jones leads the offense on a season-saving touchdown drive to give the Buckeyes a 34 - 31 victory and Big Ten title.

4. Oregon's Marcus Mariota puts exclamation point on Heisman-worthy season with 5 or more touchdowns in PAC-12 title game

The last two times Oregon faced Arizona things didn't go so well for the Ducks.  They will be eager to avenge those losses and punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win over the Wildcats.  Quarterback Marcus Mariota helps his team do just that, while putting up more eye-popping numbers, including 5 total touchdowns.  Oregon blasts Arizona 41 - 29.

5. The Big 12 changes their motto to "As many champions as we damn well please" 

The Big 12 conference's current motto is "One true champion." But the league commisioner has announced that should TCU and Baylor both finish 11 - 1, the conference would submit them as co-champions to the playoff committee, despite Baylor's head-to-head victory over the Horned Frogs.  The move is obviously a strategic one to help TCU's playoff chances, since the committee lists a conference championship as one important factor in choosing the top four. It remains to be seen if they will weigh a co-championship without a championship game as heavily as an outright conference title won in a championship game.  Either way, the Big 12 should probably change their motto.