If this game were played last week I wouldn't even consider this a bold prediction. Florida State is coming off a huge win against Notre Dame that likely left the team physically and emotionally exhausted. With almost two weeks to get ready for the Cardinals, you'd expect the Seminoles to be fully prepared. But it's possible the focus wasn't there last week after the close win and with the players knowing they had a bye. Suddenly, it's a short week and then a trip to face a stingy Louisville defense. A late field goal propels the Cardinals to a 26 - 24 victory over the Seminoles.
2. Oregon beats Stanford by double-digits
Stanford seems to have had Oregon's number in recent years, but the Ducks won't fall victim this time around. Stanford doesn't have the power running attack they've had success with in previous seasons and has also been prone to more turnovers than usual. Oregon capitalizes on Stanford's mistakes for a 29 - 17 home win.
3. Ezekiel Elliott rushes for career-high yardage against Illinois
Ohio State has a long history of big rushing performances against the Fighting Illini and this year looks to be no different. Last year, Carlos Hyde ran for 246 yards against Illinois, third best in school history. Number one and two? Eddie George and Keith Byars, respectively, both against Illinois. With Rod Smith's departure and Barrett dealing with an MCL sprain, Elliot could have a hefty workload on Saturday, facing an Illini defense giving up over 250 rushing yards per game. He needs 183 rushing yards to surpass his previous career-best versus Cincinnati earlier this season, but I think he has a good shot of hitting the 200 mark. Barrett gets some rest as the Buckeyes ride Elliott to a 44 - 14 triumph.
4. Maryland beats Penn State for the Nittany Lions' fourth-straight loss
Penn State gave Ohio State everything they could handle and more last week, but ultimately fell in double overtime. Meanwhile, Maryland took a 52 - 7 beating at Wisconsin, their worst loss of the season. So it all depends on how these two teams respond to different but equally tough losses. My guess is Penn State limps in after losing three in a row, down on themselves, especially after an encouraging 4 - 0 start. Maryland, on the other hand, will look to rebound and get bow eligible. The Terrapins' offense may struggle at first with the large crowd, but Penn State's offense stalls as Maryland eventually gets things going in the second half. Nittany Lions lose again, 20 - 17.
5. Alabama's Nick Saban starts charity fund to pay for new sports car
Life can be tough for the top coaches in college football. It's not easy making ends meet on a measly $7 million per year. The Crimson Tide Foundation recognized this, and eased things a bit for Alabama head coach Nick Saban by paying off his $3.1 million house. Now if only he can get them to pay for a new Ferrari... a coach needs a way to get around, right?
LSU coach Les Miles has called Death Valley "the place where opponents' dreams come to die." That may in fact be the case for Ole Miss, as Bo Wallace threw an interception with seconds left to play after opting to go for the win instead of a 47-yard game-tying field goal. The end result was a 10 - 7 win for the Tigers, the first loss of the season for Ole Miss. The Rebels can still win out to make it to the SEC championship game, but face some tough games ahead and no longer have any margin for error.
2. Michigan shocks Michigan State in East Lansing
The Wolverines' defense kept it close for most of the first half, but a late second-quarter touchdown and pick-six in the third fueled the Spartans on to a 35 - 11 win. The only victory for Michigan that day was a touchdown in the fourth quarter, their first against Michigan State since 2011. Based on what I've said earlier about Brady Hoke's job security, the game against Ohio State is now a must-win for the Wolverines for the Michigan coach to have any chance of keeping his job. I still stand by this assessment.
3. Ohio State scores at least 14 points in the first quarter against Penn State
The Buckeyes scored their first touchdown off a questionable interception (which was not reviewed properly due to technical difficulties), but didn't reach the end-zone again until late in the second quarter. Ohio State played lights-out defense and moved the ball efficiently in the first half to build a 17 - 0 lead. But the second half belonged to the Nittany Lions, who tallied a pick-six and rallied in the fourth quarter to send it to overtime. The Buckeyes ultimately prevailed in double OT but the game may serve as a bit of a reality check for the Ohio State offense, which was not nearly as explosive as it had been in previous weeks. However, the performance by the defense was encouraging, as was the team's resiliency, despite a raucous crowd. Most notable was Barrett's effort in overtime while dealing with an MCL sprain, and Joey Bosa's beastly performance which included the game-winning fourth down sack.
4. One or both Washington teams take down their Arizonian opponents
Arizona jumped out to a 24 - 0 lead over Washington State, so the Cougars were stuck playing catch-up all game. They were never quite able to close the gap, as the Wildcats pulled away to a 59 - 37 victory. In the other match-up, Washington had a slow start as anticipated, but never got much going against the Sun Devils, as they were held to only 10 points. Arizona State's strong defensive performance gave them the win, 24 - 10. Arizona State and Arizona continue to work their way up the rankings, but have big tests ahead, including Nov 1 games against Utah and UCLA, respectively.
5. SMU tallies 7 or more points against Memphis
The Mustangs managed to score a touchdown and a field goal, to end up with 10 points for the game, their second best offensive performance of the season so far. Of course, it was not enough to compete with Memphis, as they fell 48 - 10. Rumors have circulated that SMU might be looking at former Texas coach Mack Brown to revive the program. It's unclear whether Brown has interest or how successful he would be there, but you'd have to think he could do better than 0 - 7.
Week 9 record: 2 - 3 (I'm starting to sense a pattern...)
Overall record: 17 - 28
Other headlines from week 9:
First edition of College Football Playoff rankings released
The CFP Committee has finally revealed their much-anticipated first set of rankings, which I'm sure are already being highly scrutinized and analyzed. While there are a few surprises and notable differences with the AP poll, I don't think it means too much at this point. We learn a little bit about the committee's thinking process, but I think we can count on a very different set of rankings by season's end.
Illinois brings down Minnesota in first conference win
It was the Fighting Illini's first Big Ten win this season, and only the second in coach Tim Beckman's tenure in Champaign. Illinois doesn't have much time to celebrate, though, as they face a tough road trip to Columbus next week to take on the Buckeyes. Minnesota will have a bye week as they try to regroup after the tough loss, which was their first in conference play. The Gophers remain in first place in the West but have a brutal stretch of games remaining. These last four games may prove to define the season for Minnesota as they try for a division title.
Big guy scores TD for Arkansas
Who says a 350-pound lineman can't throw a touchdown pass? Not Arkansas coach Brett Bielema.
The Tigers are a different team at home this year, as they nearly rallied to take down now-number-one Miss State a month ago in Baton Rouge. Ole Miss has not beaten LSU in their stadium since 2008. It will be a close game that comes down to the wire, but I think "The Hat" has a few tricks up his sleeve to pull off the upset. Tigers down the Rebels, 28 - 24.
2. Michigan shocks Michigan State in East Lansing
There is no logical reason to believe the Wolverines stand a chance in this one. On paper, the Spartans win hands down, as Michigan State holds the advantage in pretty much every category. But the great thing about college football is that sometimes the inexplicable happens, especially in rivalry games. I'm going out on a limb and calling for a 27 - 26 Michigan victory.
3. Ohio State scores at least 14 points in the first quarter against Penn State
Fast starts have been par for the course for the surging Buckeyes, as they've tallied two touchdowns or more in the first quarter of each of their past 4 games. Getting on the board quickly may prove crucial Saturday night, as they try to silence a large home crowd in Happy Valley. But Penn State's defense is only allowing 15 points per game and have had two weeks to prepare for Ohio State, so it won't be easy. Throw in the fact that the Nittany Lions will be looking to avenge last year's 63 - 14 thrashing in Columbus, and suddenly what appeared to be another soft match-up becomes a trickier endeavor However, Penn State has yet to face an offense like this one. Buckeyes strike early and often on the way to a 40 - 20 statement win.
4. One or both Washington teams take down their Arizonian opponents
It's a battle between states this week as Arizona and Arizona State travel to Washington State and Washington, respectively. The Arizona schools are both ranked and favored over their foes from the Evergreen state, but I think one of them falls short this weekend. If Washington State can play just a little bit of defense they can compete with the Wildcats, as their offense can score touchdowns in bunches. For Washington it's all about how they respond after the bad loss at Oregon, as I think they match up pretty evenly with the Sun Devils. My guess is the Cougars get it done, as Washington State QB Halliday leads the team to a 38 - 35 surprise win over Arizona. The Huskies start slowly and can't catch back up despite a strong second-half, falling 29 - 27 to Arizona State.
5. SMU tallies 7 or more points against Memphis
The SMU Mustangs are the last remaining winless FBS team in the country and rank dead-last in points scored and points allowed. They average just 6.5 points per game and have been shut out twice. SMU's best offensive showing was a 24-point explosion in a loss to East Carolina - one of only two games where they reached the endzone. The Mustangs don't stand a chance against a mediocre Memphis team, but hey, who knows, maybe they score a touchdown? Memphis still wins, of course, 41 - 7.
1. Texas A&M knocks Alabama out of playoff contention
So... yeah. This one was quite clearly a bust. Alabama silenced critics by absolutely crushing Texas A&M, 59 - 0. If Alabama wins out, they will still be in good position to make the playoff, depending on how the rest of the SEC West shakes out. They still have upcoming games against LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn, though, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.
2. Florida State embarrasses Notre Dame with 20+ point victory
I was right that the Seminoles wouldn't lose, but way off about how close it would be. Notre Dame held the lead for much of the night, matching up quite evenly with Florida State in all phases of the game. It wasn't until halfway through the fourth quarter that the defending national champs finally took the lead. It would prove to be the winning score, as Notre Dame fell short on their final drive. The Irish had what appeared to be the go-ahead touchdown on fourth-and-goal with seconds remaining but a controversial offensive pass-interference call erased the score and ultimately ended Notre Dame's upset bid. Florida State barely survived, 31 - 27.
3. Rutgers' Leonte Carroo has 100+ receiving yards against Ohio State
Carroo had exactly 100 receiving yards on five catches, but in general, Rutgers did not consistently move the ball, as predicted. Ohio State continued their offensive dominance as they cruised to a 56 - 17 victory. Things get considerably more difficult as the Buckeyes travel to Penn State to take on the Nittany Lions in a hostile night game environment.
4. Northwestern mixes up the Big Ten West race with win over Nebraska
This one started close, with the Wildcats holding a 3-point lead at halftime. But a second half dominated by the Cornhuskers ruined this prediction. Nebraska still controls their own destiny in the West, with the most important games coming at the end of the season, against Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. But for now, the Cornhuskers look the part of division champ, after a 38 - 17 win over Northwestern.
5. New evidence comes to light that shows Ben Affleck is not Batman
So, it turns out that Ben Affleck is PLAYING Batman in the movie Batman v Superman. I guess I would have discovered this had I actually read the article I linked to in my prediction (crazy, right?). Either way, this prediction was accurate. The part about Michigan State beating Indiana was good too, as the Spartans posted a 56 - 17 win over the Hoosiers.
Week 8 record: 2 - 3
Overall record: 15 - 25
Baylor falls to West Virginia, only four unbeatens remain
Looks like I was a week early on the Baylor upset prediction, as West Virginia was the team to hold the Bears under 30 points. The Mountaineers surprised everyone with a 41 - 27 victory. Baylor's defeat, combined with Notre Dame's loss, means only four teams are still undefeated. Things are starting to get interesting - will anyone survive this season without a loss?
Dark horse Heisman candidate in Columbus?
No, I'm not talking about Braxton Miller in 2015. Ohio State's J.T. Barrett may have struggled early on, but since the loss to Virginia Tech he's looked about as good, if not better, than any other quarterback in the country. Barrett holds the highest total QBR (quarterback rating) since week 3, has four straight games with 4 or more touchdowns, while leading the offense to 50+ points and over 500 yards in each of those contests. He's currently on pace to post season stats similar to those earned by Manziel and Winston in their respective Heisman seasons. The biggest question on the minds of fans and critics alike, is whether his numbers are due to facing weak defenses or if he really is that improved. A good measuring stick comes up next against a Penn State team ranked 6th nationally in scoring defense. Then the real test will arrive a couple weeks later against a very tough Michigan State squad. If Barrett has a big day against the Nittany Lions he will officially enter the conversation. If he posts similar stats in a win over the Spartans, he will be right in the mix as a top-five contender.
Like father, like son?
Joe Montana's son, Nick Montana, had Tulane lined up as precious seconds ticked off the clock in the first half against UCF. Montana opted to spike the ball to stop the clock. What he didn't realize was the previous third-down conversion had failed, meaning the Green Wave were already facing fourth down before the spike. Oops. The knights went on to win by a touchdown.
1. Texas A&M knocks Alabama out of playoff contention
The Crimson Tide survived a scare last week at Arkansas, and certainly won't be overlooking the Aggies since the last couple games between these teams have been decided by a touchdown or less. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is looking to avoid a third-straight loss and regain some pride. The teams are mirror-images of one another, as Alabama boasts a 6th-ranked defense and 48th-ranked offense, while A&M features the 6th best offense and 48th-best defense. But the Aggies' offense sets the tone in this one in a 33 - 28 win.
2. Florida State embarrasses Notre Dame with 20+ point victory
I still think the Seminoles are going to lose one before all is said and done, but it won't be this week. They've had this game circled from the beginning of the season and will be ready against a Notre Dame team that has been prone to turning the ball over lately. If we examine recent history for these two teams, we see that Notre Dame has struggled mightily against top-5 opponents. Florida State has also won the past two meetings of these schools, and holds an overall 5 - 2 advantage in the series. The trend continues on Saturday with a big win for the Noles, 43 - 23.
3. Rutgers' Leonte Carroo has 100+ receiving yards against Ohio State
The wide receiver out of New Jersey is on target to break 1,000 receiving yards this season and is poised to have a big game against Ohio State. If the Buckeyes have a weakness, it's the inability to limit big passing plays. The Scarlet Knights will try to exploit this by getting Carroo open in space, and will likely have some success doing so. However, Rutgers will not be able to move the ball consistently enough to keep up with the Ohio State offense which has looked unstoppable in three straight blowout wins. A big day for Carroo is not enough as the Bucks roll to a 45 - 27 win.
4. Northwestern mixes up the Big Ten West race with win over Nebraska
Things are already pretty cloudy in the West Division of the Big Ten with Iowa and Minnesota atop the standings and Northwestern, Nebraska, and Wisconsin close behind. While a loss wouldn't eliminate the Cornhuskers as a B1G title contender, it would make it an uphill battle for a team that was picked by many to represent the West in Indy. Since joining the conference, games against Northwestern have been extremely close, and this one figures to be as well. Last year the Cornhuskers shocked the Wildcats with a last-second Hail Mary. This year, Fitzgerald's squad repays the favor with their own fourth-quarter comeback win, 31 - 30.
5. New evidence comes to light that shows Ben Affleck is not Batman
On Thursday, movie star Ben Affleck dropped a bombshell by revealing that he was Batman during a speech to the Michigan State Spartans. I, however, remain skeptical. First, I see no motivation for Affleck to out himself as the Caped Crusader. Keeping your true identity a secret is rule #1 among superheroes and the real Batman would know this. Secondly, while Affleck certainly has the money to pay for the Batmobile and all the gadgets, he does not have the attitude to pull it off. Sorry, but something about that silly smirk of his just doesn't seem like it could strike fear into the heart of the criminals of Gotham.
The speech, on the other hand, will prove effective, motivating the Spartans to beat Indiana on Saturday. They will have laser-sharp focus as they take on the Hoosiers, no longer distracted by that nagging question: "Who is Batman?" MSU wins, 48 - 20.
As predicted, and as happens so often after the underdog pulls off the big upset, Arizona had a letdown the following week. USC dominated the first half, but the Wildcats rallied late to pull within two. However, a missed field goal with 17 seconds left gave the Trojans the win, 28 - 26.
2. Oregon and UCLA combine for 90+ points in an epicshootout
Oregon's offense did their part for this prediction, but Hundley and the Bruins were held in check for most of the game. The Ducks showed they are still the top playoff contenders in the Pac-12 with a 42 - 30 victory. It was a high-scoring affair, but not quite the fireworks display I was expecting.
3. TCU holds Baylor to 30 points orless
Speaking of fireworks, Baylor and TCU put on quite a show. The Horned Frogs barely held the Bears to 30 points in the first half. TCU surged to a 58 - 37 lead, but a fourth quarter collapse allowed Baylor to score the final 24 points in a stunning comeback win for the Bears. Baylor is now in the driver's seat in the Big 12 and is a real contender for the playoffs after knocking off TCU, 61 - 58.
4. Georgia running back Nick Chubb runs for 150+ yards in Gurley's absence
Chubb took over as Georgia's workhorse with 38 rushes, but averaged a modest 3.8 yards per carry. The result was a total of 143 rushing yards, just shy of my prediction. The offense managed fine without Gurley, and the defense turned in a superb performance to give the Bulldogs an impressive 34 - 0 win over Missouri. But if Gurley's NCAA status isn't resolved soon, the junior running back can forget about any chance at winning a Heisman this year.
5. Florida has a QB available to play on Saturday
Treon Harris was reinstated on Friday after the sexual battery complaint was withdrawn, but coaches kept him out of the game. This left Jeff Driskel as the Gators' only option, resulting in a 30 - 27 loss to LSU. Florida will look to rebound against Missouri next week.
Week 7 record: 2 - 3
Overall record: 13 - 22
Refs botch end of Alabama vs. Arkansas game
Alabama was facing a critical third down, clinging to a 14 - 13 lead against Arkansas with only 1:01 to play, when they were flagged for a false start. The clock should have stayed at 1:01 until the next snap. However, after being penalized the five yards for the false start, the referees incorrectly signaled for the clock to start running. The result was that the next play run by the Crimson Tide was enough to drain the rest of the clock, giving Alabama the win. Arkansas would've still needed a miracle to win, even if the clock had been managed properly and they got the ball back, but crazier things have happened. The Razorbacks deserved that shot after outplaying the Tide for most of the game.
State of Mississippi keeps going strong
Ole Miss and Mississippi State stand alone as the last unbeaten teams in the SEC after notching double-digit wins against Texas A&M and Auburn, respectively, this week. The win for the Bulldogs was enough to propel them to the number one spot in the rankings, while the Rebels hangs out not far behind, at third. If both teams win out, the Nov 29 showdown between the two will effectively be a division championship game, and step one to earning a playoff bid.
College Football poised for exciting second half
The number of unbeatens dwindle, while the group of one-loss teams expands. As I've stated before, going undefeated in a Power-5 effectively guarantees a playoff spot, but what if only one or two teams go undefeated (as I've also mentioned as a likelihood)? If there are a bunch of one-loss teams at the end of the season, who gets the nod? Based on what the selection committee has said about the process, it sounds like conference champions will get an advantage in this kind of scenario. But with five major conferences, if no champion has more than one loss, who gets left out? And what about a one-loss SEC west team that doesn't make the SEC championship? Will the committee show them the same love the polls have up to this point and put them ahead of once-beaten teams from other conferences? Throw in a 11 - 1 Notre Dame squad and the whole thing seems like a crap-shoot. We still have a lot of football left, so things may work themselves out eventually. Either way, the second half of the season should be fun to watch, as dozens of teams try to claw their way into the top four.
The Arizona Wildcats are feeling good after the big win against Oregon. Which is just the more reason they may fall victim to a classic trap game scenario. USC will surprise Arizona with a 26 - 23 win on the road.
2. Oregon and UCLA combine for 90+ points in an epicshootout
Both these teams look to rebound after suffering surprising losses to unranked teams. Both feature Heisman candidate quarterbacks and high-powered offenses. So I'm counting on a lot of points in this one. I think it could go either way, but I give the slight edge to Oregon. Ducks win a thriller, 48 - 45.
3. TCU holds Baylor to 30 points orless
Baylor is averaging a national best 51 points per game this season and will try to keep the trend going against a gritty TCU defense. But the Horned Frogs showed they can play with the big boys after upsetting Oklahoma last week. The Bears' competition to this point has been nowhere near what they will face on Saturday. They get exposed, as TCU cruises to a 40 - 28 win.
4. Georgia running back Nick Chubb runs for 150+ yards in Gurley's absence
Freshman Nick Chubb has big shoes to fill, with Todd Gurley suspended indefinitely while being investigated for alleged NCAA rules violations. But Missouri has shown that they are susceptible to the run, giving the young running back an opportunity to showcase his own skills. He has shown glimpses of greatness, so I see this as a possible breakout game for him in a 37 - 31 victory for the Bulldogs.
5. Florida has a QB available to play on Saturday
The Gators' sophomore quarterback Skyler Mornhinweg is questionable for Saturday's game against LSU after being treated for injuries sustained in a brawl with teammate Gerald Willis III over a pair of cleats. Meanwhile, true freshman QB Treon Harris is suspended while being investigated on charges of sexual assault. So Florida may be stuck with multi-year starter Jeff Driskel, which is actually probably unwelcome news to many Gator fans. But who knows, maybe he will try to rob a bank or something and Florida can just play without a quarterback.
1. Four or more ranked teams lose to unranked or lower-ranked teams
Yeah, it was definitely one of those weeks. First, Oregon lost to unranked Arizona. Then BYU lost to unranked Utah State. But the real chaos got underway on Saturday with Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, and Wisconsin all falling to unranked or lower ranked opponents. That's 7 teams (not including Oregon) that matched the criteria, making this prediction a slam-dunk. In all, here are the ranks of teams in the top 25 that lost this week (keep in mind, some of these suffered losses to other ranked teams, but still): #2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, and 19. Wow.
2. Alabama beats Ole Miss by 14+ points
Clearly this one didn't pan out, because the Crimson Tide made the list above. This was not even close to a blow-out, with Alabama's largest cushion a 14 - 3 halftime lead. The Rebels rallied in the second half to stun Nick Saban's third-ranked Alabama squad, 23 - 17. The win was part of a big day for football in the state of Mississippi, with the Mississippi State Bulldogs also notching a big win, 48 - 31 over Texas A&M.
3. Michigan State holds Ameer Abdullah under 100 yards rushing
The Spartans barely survived a furious fourth quarter rally by the Cornhuskers, but completely shut down the run game, holding Abdullah to just 45 rushing yards. Michigan State reminded everyone why they were the top team in the Big Ten in 2013 with their suffocating defense. The Nebraska running back's Heisman hopes aren't completely dashed, but it's going to be an uphill battle after a flat performance in what could have been a shining moment against a top ten defense. Final score 27 - 22 MSU (compared to my prediction of 27 - 23.)
4. J.T. Barrett throws for over 300 yards for the third straight game
The rapidly maturing Buckeye quarterback had another outstanding game but fell just short of the 300 mark, with 267 yards passing. If Maryland's offense had been able to keep pace, Barrett would have easily reached the milestone again. But with a big second half lead, Ohio State leaned on the run game led by Ezekiel Elliott and eventually, backup QB Cardale Jones took over. Ohio State hasn't faced a defense as good as Virginia Tech's since the week 2 loss, but they look like a totally different team after outscoring opponents 168 - 52 since. The real test will come on November 8, when the Buckeyes travel to East Lansing to take on Michigan State in a match-up that will likely decide the division winner and eliminate any remaining playoff hopes for one of the teams.
5. Either Massachusetts or Miami (OH) wins a game this week
UMass went into the locker room with a 41 - 21 lead, looking like the better of these two MAC cellar-dwellers. But a big second half for the Redhawks, helped by several Minutemen turnovers, sparked a comeback win for Miami. It might be their only win of the season, but they fought hard for it. Final score: 42 - 41.
Week 6 record: 3 - 2
Overall record: 11 - 19
Other headlines from week 6:
Nobody's safe, but a loss doesn't mean disqualification
If there's one thing week 6 taught us, it's that anyone can succumb to the upset bug. I will be surprised if more than one or two teams end the regular season undefeated. As it stands, there are 10 teams with perfect records. Three of them are in the SEC West, so you can guarantee at most one of them will come out without a loss (though I think it's more likely the SEC champ will have at least one loss.) Florida State and Notre Dame play each other, so scratch another one there. Baylor and TCU face off this week, so that's one more that will go down - and I won't be shocked if the winner of that one still goes on to lose later in the season. Marshall may very well finish the season without a loss, and no one outside of the state of West Virginia will notice. Arizona sits as the lone undefeated team in the Pac-12, but there's no way they make it through their schedule unscathed. Who else is left? Georgia Tech? Please. What does all this mean? All the teams with one loss (or soon to have one loss) still have playoff hopes. It's going to be a tight battle for those four spots though.
Arizona atop Pac-12 while Michigan looks on longingly
Speaking of Arizona being the last undefeated team in the Pac-12, who saw that coming? The Wildcats made their presence known on Thursday with a stunning 31 - 24 victory over Oregon. There are few who believe they will be able to navigate their difficult schedule without stumbling at least once along the way, but not many picked them to beat the Ducks, so who knows? The cruel irony for Michigan fans: Arizona is led by head coach Rich Rodriguez. Yes, the same guy Michigan fired a few years back after not making enough progress in his three years with the program. Fast forward to right now, and the Wolverines are in disarray, with a 2 - 4 record and a coach whose win percentage has declined each year since taking the job. Rodriguez had a rocky start, but his win total at least went up every year at Michigan. You have to bet there are many in Ann Arbor regretting the decision to send him packing, and wondering what could have been.
Wisconsin reeling, Northwestern surging
Other than Michigan's woeful start of the season, two of the other biggest surprises in the Big Ten have been Wisconsin and Northwestern. The Badgers started the season with a close loss to LSU, but still looked like they could be one of the top teams in the conference. But after the upset loss to the Wildcats and LSU's blowout at the hands of Auburn, they look shaky at best. If you recall, I mentioned back in week 1 that Wisconsin would need improved quarterback play to compete in the Big Ten. Well, although they had Joel Stave back for their conference opener, the offense struggled with both quarterbacks. Stave and McEvoy combined to complete 12 of 29 passes for 138 yards, with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. Eek. Even the run game has been inconsistent, going for stretches of time without getting much going. Northwestern capitalized to take down the Badgers, 20 - 14. The win is just the latest for the Wildcats, who were left for dead after an 0 - 2 start. They have since turned the season around with upsets of Penn State and now Wisconsin. If they can keep their momentum, they could very well be a factor in the B1G West division in November.
1. Four or more ranked teams lose to unranked or lower-ranked teams
The week started with a bang, with #2 Oregon falling to unranked Arizona. I'm not including that in this prediction's total, obviously, but I get the feeling it could be one of those weeks where anybody can beat anybody. Teams that should be on upset watch: everybody.
2. Alabama beats Ole Miss by 14+ points
The Crimson Tide won't be one of the teams to succumb to the chaos predicted above. While I think they may not be as good this year as in previous seasons, I think they are still more than capable of blowing out an untested Ole Miss team. Alabama has won 10 straight against the Rebels, including a 25 - 0 shutout last year. I think they keep the trend going with another blowout win, 38 - 24, Tide.
3. Michigan State holds Ameer Abdullah under 100 yards rushing
Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah has 833 rushing yards on the season, going over 200 yards on 3 occasions and being held to less than 100 yards only once. Considered one of the top backs in the country and a Heisman hopeful, Abdullah could make some noise with a big performance against the Spartans. But Michigan State is yet to allow a 100-yard rusher, even against Oregon. They haven't faced a back like Abdullah yet, but I think their stingy defense holds him just under the century mark. Spartans hang on to win, 27- 23.
4. J.T. Barrett throws for over 300 yards for the third straight game
The Buckeye quarterback was the first to post back-to-back games of 300+ passing yards since Troy Smith in 2005. The competition gets kicked up a notch this week against Maryland, but if the offensive line continues to improve and receivers minimize dropped passes, I think Barrett can do it again. Plus, the Terrapins also have a strong quarterback in C.J. Brown, who is surrounded by skilled receivers, so this one could very well turn into a shoot-out. Ohio State wins on a late scoring drive, led by the Barrett-Elliot tandem, 45 - 38.
5. Either Massachusetts or Miami (OH) wins a game this week
The Minutemen and Redhawks sit together at the bottom of the MAC East standings, 0 - 5, just waiting to play someone they might be able to beat. They own average margins of defeat of 15 and 12.2 points, respectively. Finally, they both face an opponent they can compete with: each other. It's anybody's guess who comes out on top, but one of them has to win, right? Right???
The Wolfpack looked not only capable of pulling off the upset, but for much of the game seemed like the better team. They jumped out to a 24 - 7 lead in the first quarter and held the lead until late in the third quarter. But they were not able to maintain the momentum and eventually just couldn't stop the Florida State offense. Seminoles won, but did not look like the number one team in the country. It's only a matter of time before someone knocks off the defending champs. Keep an eye on the October 17 match-up with Notre Dame.
2. Washington takes down Stanford
As anticipated, this was a tight defensive struggle, but Stanford came out on top. The Cardinal offense continues to stall, especially in the red zone, but their defense is among the best in the nation and helped get the win in Seattle. The Huskies' unsuccessful, gutsy fake punt in the fourth quarter, with the game tied, ultimately led to their demise. Kevin Hogan's touchdown run on the ensuing drive gave them the 20 - 13 win.
3. Ohio State scores twice on defense/special teams vs Cincinnati
The Buckeyes recorded a safety, but that was it for defensive scoring. The offense didn't need the help though, as the Bearcats were powerless to slow down Barrett and Elliot in a 50 - 28 victory (pretty close to my 42 - 24 prediction.) Ohio State had a school-record 45 first downs and racked up 710 yards of offense. But the same points of concern still remain. The secondary gave up several big plays, receivers dropped easy passes, and while the offensive line seems to have improved drastically, it's not clear whether that is real improvement or just lack of quality competition. The upcoming game against Maryland should be a bigger test for the Buckeyes.
4. Michigan's six-figure attendance streak comes to an end
The battle for the Little Brown Jug was enough to keep the record going, with 102,926 in attendance for Saturday's game. But there are bigger concerns in Ann Arbor, after losing 30 - 14 to Minnesota. The Wolverines' offense now averages a measly 5.67 points per game against other Power-5 teams. The loss to the Golden Gophers was a school-record third loss by October for Michigan. If this wasn't bad enough, a sideline communication led to a mishandling of a head injury sustained by quarterback Shane Morris. Mixed messages this week from Brady Hoke and athletic director Dave Brandon only aggravated the situation. After a protest against the Michigan AD, he and the head coach both sit firmly on the hot seat. At this point, barring a complete 180 by the football team, I think Hoke will be lucky to even keep his job for the remainder of the season.
5. Wisconsin racks up 100-billion rushing yards against South Florida
The Badgers were a bit short of the 100-billion mark, and even the slightly-more-attainable 400 rushing yards I predicted. The offense started slow, scoring only 3 points in the first half. A strong second half by running back Melvin Gordon boosted Wisconsin to a 27 - 10 win, but the team only recorded 294 rushing yards, making this prediction horribly inaccurate.
Week 5 record: 0 - 5
Overall record: 8 - 17
Eek.
Other headlines from week 5:
Scarlet Knights and Terrapins surprise
Few people expected Maryland or Rutgers to make much noise in their first season in a new conference. But both have had fairly strong starts to the season and could prove very capable of competing in a weak-looking Big Ten. Both have only one loss, but Maryland definitely looks like the better of the two, after knocking off Indiana. Rutgers' loss to Penn State looks worse after the Nittany Lions were beaten badly at home by a suspect Northwestern team. We are just starting to get into conference play, though, so we will soon see what these two B1G newcomers are really made of.
Hundley storms into Heisman race
UCLA's Brett Hundley was on many people's short lists for pre-season Heisman favorites, but had been fairly quiet in the first few weeks. An arm injury kept him out of most of the game against Texas, missing valuable time to impress voters. But in a match-up against ranked and unbeaten Arizona State, Hundley and the Bruins made a statement with big play after big play. There are tough challenges on the schedule ahead, including games against Oregon, USC, and Stanford, but if UCLA can somehow navigate the schedule unbeaten (or even with one loss) and Hundley continues to put up video-game stats, expect to see him among the finalists in New York.
It's not a good idea to run onto the field at Ohio State
I think the video pretty much speaks for itself, if you haven't seen it. Ouch. On top of probably feeling pretty sore, Ohio State student Anthony Wunder now stands to lose his scholarship. Double ouch.
