1. Four or more Group of 5 teams take down Power 5 opponents
There are seven bowl match-ups that can qualify here, and I think the Group of 5 teams have a shot to win the majority of them. Bowl success has a lot to do with motivation, and many of the Power 5 teams may be disappointed with their season and feel like they don't have much to play for. Meanwhile, the smaller schools will be excited and pumped up to play against a big-name school. Look out for the little guy this postseason.
2. Boise State notches another Fiesta Bowl victory
Speaking of the little guy... the Fiesta Bowl has been good to the Broncos, who surprised everyone in 2007 with a stunning OT win over Oklahoma, and won again in 2010 against TCU. Arizona comes in as the favorite, but I think Boise State wins another close one in Glendale, 28 - 24.
3. Ole Miss stifles TCU in Peach Bowl win
TCU has been a force to be reckoned with this season, on offense and defense. The only problem is the defenses they have faced have been mediocre mostly - the best being the Wildcats' at 27th in the nation averaging 21.8 points allowed per game. Enter Ole Miss, number one defense in the country, allowing just shy of 14 points per game. The Rebels may struggle to move the ball, as that has been their Achilles' heal this year. But they are the only team to beat top-ranked Alabama and I expect their defense to make enough big plays to win this one. Ole Miss leaves Atlanta with a victory, 23 - 20.
4. Melvin Gordon claims number two spot on single-season rushing list
At 2,336 rushing yards, the Wisconsin running back is only 7 yards away from reaching number three on the list of top FBS rushers. But, he will need another 225 yards on top of that in order to surpass Kevin Smith's 2,567 yards from 2007. Auburn gave up an average of 246 rushing yards in their three losses, showing they can be beat on the ground, so I think Gordon can do it. Barry Sanders' record 2,628 yards is likely out of reach, though, barring a herculean effort by the running back and offensive line. It does make you really appreciate what Sanders did in 1988 in only 11 games (the NCAA didn't start including bowl game stats until 2002, otherwise his record would be an astonishing 2,850 yards). With championship games and bowl games (and now, for a select few teams, playoff games), college players today have 14 or 15 games to accumulate stats. Still, it's been an amazing year for Melvin Gordon and he'll obviously try to end his college career on a high note.
5. Baylor beats Michigan State by double-digits
The Spartans have dominated opponents this season, aside from losses to Oregon and Ohio State, whose offenses were too much for Michigan State. That spells trouble for Sparty, as Baylor comes into the Cotton Bowl sporting the nation's top scoring offense. I really like the Spartans, but I absolutely hate this match-up. Like Michigan State's prior losses, I just don't think they will be able to match the Bears point-for-point. Baylor pulls away in the fourth quarter to win it, 48 - 35.
1. Georgia Tech ends Florida State's undefeated run
I had the score prediction of 37 - 35 exactly right, but flipped the teams. Florida State held on to beat Georgia Tech, win the ACC title, and earn a spot in the playoffs. Looks like I was wrong about the Seminoles, as they made it through their schedule unscathed. They will face Oregon in the Rose Bowl, underdogs for the first time this year.
2. Kansas State knocks off Baylor
The Bears came away with a 38 - 27 win but it was not enough to make the playoffs, as top teams won their conference championships, including several in blowout fashion. A major factor that likely kept Baylor out was an abysmal out-of-conference schedule. The Bears faced FCS squad Northwestern State, one-win SMU, and a Buffalo team that is not even bowl eligible. The co-championship with TCU, despite beating the Horned Frogs, probably didn't help their cause either. The Bears end up in a New Years bowl against Michigan State as a consolation prize. But can they overcome their disappointment and beat the Spartans?
3. Cardale Jones has 100+ rushing yards against Wisconsin
He may not have done much with his legs, but the 6'5" sophomore made big play after big play with his arm. He was helped out by some fantastic performances by the rest of the offense, though. The offensive line gave him plenty of time to throw, wide receivers made big-time catches, and Ezekiel Elliot did his part with a career-best 220 yards on the ground. But perhaps more surprising was the Buckeye defense, who shut down the Badgers (who had averaged 37 points per game before Saturday) and effectively ended Melvin Gordon's Heisman campaign, limiting him to just 76 yards. The result was a 59 - 0 thrashing that led to a spot in the playoffs. Up next, Ohio State faces a tough test against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
4. Oregon's Marcus Mariota puts exclamation point on Heisman-worthy season with 5 or more touchdowns in PAC-12 title game
The Ducks' offense started a little slow, with numerous penalties costing them points early. But once Oregon got going, things got ugly. Mariota had another great game, as predicted, with 313 passing yards, 33 rushing yards, and 5 total touchdowns. The Heisman ceremony is more of a formality at this point, as it looks like Mariota has the award wrapped up. More importantly for the Ducks, they beat Arizona, 51 - 13, and head into the playoffs to face Florida State on January 1st.
5. The Big 12 changes their motto to "As many champions as we damn well please"
It looks like the decision to label TCU and Baylor as co-champs backfired, as the Big 12 was the only Power Five conference to not send a team to the playoffs. Even if they don't change their motto, they should probably look to change their model, as the round-robin format and lack of a championship game certainly hurt when it came time for the committee to select the top four teams.
Week 15 record: 1 - 4
Overall record: 29 - 46
Other headlines from week 15:
First playoff reveals flaw in system
It doesn't take a math genius to figure out someone was going to be left out. With four playoff spots and five major conferences, we should have seen this coming. But everyone assumed chaos in the final weeks would clear things up, as it usually did with the BCS system. But the last couple of weeks were mostly chaos free, and we ended up with a logjam at the top, including an undefeated Florida State and five one-loss teams. When the final rankings were revealed, it was the Big 12 who was left out, as co-champs Baylor and TCU sat at 5 and 6, respectively. It's clear that something needs to change, as the Bears and Horned Frogs both had legitimate arguments to be included. The calls are already starting (especially in Big 12 country) for expanding the playoff to eight teams. I don't know how soon it will happen, though, as the current four-team system is slated to run through the 2025 season. I have concerns about expanding the playoff, too, so we should be wary of jumping the gun here. More to come on this in a later post.
SMU wins their first game, can't figure out victory formation
The Mustangs were the last remaining winless team in FBS before finally pulling off a 27 - 20 win over struggling UConn. But they had a bit of trouble with the victory formation, which they had apparently never practiced before. Congrats to SMU all the same, as they finally got to celebrate. According to interim coach Tom Mason, "That locker room, it was like winning the damn national championship."
Central Michigan players learn bowl destination in fun way
CMU got creative in revealing the Chippewas' bowl game to the players. Watch here, or below.
I've waited to weigh in on rankings (for the most part) until now. Here is my top 25, with a bit of an explanation for the top 4 teams.
1. Florida State
As the only undefeated team in FBS, the Seminoles take the top spot. They may not be the best in the country, but until someone proves it, they belong here.
2. Oregon
The Ducks barely edge out Alabama for the number two spot. Oregon got a do-over against Arizona, proving that they really are the better team. Avenging that loss and winning the Pac-12 in dominating fashion earned them this place.
3. Alabama
Yes, they won the SEC. But the Crimson Tide had a number of close games that could have gone either way. Not quite as many as Florida State, but the one loss makes the difference here and is why they are a bit lower in my rankings.
4. Ohio State
The coveted fourth spot. The loss to Virginia Tech looks bad, but it was the earliest for any of the one-loss teams. The Buckeyes are a young squad that has improved more than any other team this year. If Ohio State played the Hokies today, it would not even be close - and anyone who believes differently has either not seen the Buckeyes play since week 2 or is named Mark May. Baylor and TCU were hurt by the Big 12 not having a championship game, and possibly the fact that they were presented as co-champions. Additionally, the lack of a championship game meant 3 bye weeks and only 12 games for the Bears and Horned Frogs. That's one extra week of rest and preparation and one less chance to lose. On the flip side, the Buckeyes took advantage of their 13th game by absolutely demolishing Wisconsin and earning an outright Conference title. OSU also has a better strength of schedule when compared to TCU and Baylor. All these factors led me to agree with the committee's decision to put Ohio State in the playoffs ahead of the Big 12 co-champs.
5. Baylor
6. TCU
7. Michigan State
8. Mississippi State
9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia Tech
11. Kansas State
12. UCLA
13. Arizona
14. Georgia
15. Missouri
16. Wisconsin
17. Arizona State
18. Clemson
19. Louisville
20. Boise State
21. Auburn
22. Nebraska
23. LSU
24. Utah
25. Minnesota
1. Four or more ranked teams lose to unranked opponents
This one started off looking good, with Marshall and UCLA both falling to unranked teams on Friday. But while underdogs put up some pretty good fights all weekend, there were no more major upsets delivered from teams outside the top 25.
2. Mississippi State takes down Ole Miss by margin of 10+
It was Ole Miss that had this one by double digits, not Mississippi State. The Rebels erased any possibility of a SEC championship or playoff appearance for the Bulldogs, as they beat them 31 - 17 in the Egg Bowl.
3. Ohio State's defense records four or more sacks in The Game
I was spot on with this pick, as Michigan struggled to protect quarterback Devin Gardner all game. The Buckeyes recorded five sacks in total, including a sack-and-strip that resulted in a game-clinching touchdown. My score prediction of 45 - 31 was pretty close as well, as Ohio State notched a 42 - 28 victory. However, the Buckeyes may have lost something more important than The Game, as J.T. Barrett went down with a season-ending injury. Sophomore quarterback Cardale Jones will now take the reins of the offense heading into the Big Ten Championship game against Wisconsin. The one positive moment from the scene on Saturday as Barrett lay on the turf was an inspiring display of sportsmanship by Devin Gardner, who put aside arguably the biggest rivalry in sports to console the Ohio State quarterback. OSU responded with a letter, thanking the Michigan senior for his act of compassion. Well done, young man.
4. Alabama's Amari Cooper tops 200 receiving yards against Auburn
Another very accurate prediction here, as the Alabama wide receiver tied a school record (previously set by himself) of 224 receiving yards. I nailed the margin of victory guess too, but gave both teams' defenses too much credit (41 - 30 vs actual score of 55 - 44). Both offenses shredded the opposing team's secondary all night, but it was the Crimson Tide who were able to consistently move the ball down the stretch with big play after big play by Cooper. The win sets up an SEC championship showdown with Missouri. A victory there and Saban's squad is in the playoffs.
5. Melvin Gordon climbs to third on FBS rushing list
Gordon had another solid day rushing, but it wasn't quite enough to pass Marcus Allen in the record books. He did claim the number four spot, as expected, after tallying 151 yards on the ground, putting him at 2,260 for the year. He will try to improve on that and lead the Badgers to a win over Ohio State in Indy with the Big Ten title on the line.
Week 14 record: 2 -3
Overall record: 28 - 42
Other headlines from week 14:
Marshall suffers first loss of season
Any argument for the Thundering Herd to play in a major bowl game went out the window with a crazy 67 - 66 loss to Western Kentucky. Neither defense seemed capable of stopping their opponent, as the score reached 49 - 42 by halftime. The offenses slowed down a bit in the second half, and Marshall tied it in the last minute of regulation to send it to overtime. But a gutsy call by the Hilltoppers to go for two in the first OT proved successful, and they ended the Herd's hopes of an undefeated season. If they hadn't gone for the two-point conversion, they might still be playing today.
CFP Committee drops Florida State again, sets dangerous precedent
While I've predicted the Seminoles to lose numerous times, and made my feelings about Jameis Winston abundantly clear, I still have to give credit where credit is due. Florida State is the only remaining undefeated FBS team and while they often don't look great, they have always found a way to win. But the committee has gradually dropped the Seminoles, putting them most recently at #4 behind three one-loss teams. I understand that they need to consider strength of schedule and other intangible factors, but those should be used as tie-breakers when comparing teams with the same record. The ACC may not be the best conference, but they are still Power Five (and went 4 - 0 against the SEC this past weekend). There is no reason for Florida State to be anything less than #1 in the rankings. Now, FSU fans don't have to be too worried - a win against Georgia Tech in the ACC championship should guarantee them a spot in the playoffs. But what is disconcerting about how the committee has treated the Seminoles is the precedent it sets. They throw around terms like "eye test" and "style points" when determining rankings. This is football, not a beauty pageant, so winning should be the first determining factor, and everything else should be secondary. The fact that the CFP committee doesn't see it that way is very scary.
Nebraska's "butt punt"
You've probably seen the legendary "butt fumble". But have you seen a "butt punt"? I don't care what ESPN says, it sure looked like a butt punt to me. Judge for yourself: watch here, or below.
1. Georgia Tech ends Florida State's undefeated run
I'm taking one last stab at this one. The Seminoles have played pretty much everyone close, so I don't expect this one to be any different. Georgia Tech also runs a very effective triple-option, for which Florida State only has a week to prepare. Yellow Jackets get it done, 37 - 35.
2. Kansas State knocks off Baylor
The Bears will be rooting against teams ahead of them and hoping the committee considers their win over TCU when picking the top 4. I don't think it ends up mattering though, as Kansas State takes Baylor out of the conversation. Wildcats notch a big win as the Bears try to rally but fall short, 43 - 40.
3. Cardale Jones has 100+ rushing yards against Wisconsin
For the second time this year, the Buckeyes will have to replace a heisman candidate quarterback. This time it's Cardale Jones who will have to step up, a guy who's built like a tank with a cannon for an arm. He faces a tough challenge, though, in his first career start facing a stingy Wisconsin defense. But he's proven he can run the offense, albeit against weaker teams with the game already well in hand. And he's already shown he's got up (and up). He has some early jitters but loosens up in the second quarter with some long runs. The game stays close throughout, with Wisconsin holding a lead late into the fourth quarter. But Jones leads the offense on a season-saving touchdown drive to give the Buckeyes a 34 - 31 victory and Big Ten title.
4. Oregon's Marcus Mariota puts exclamation point on Heisman-worthy season with 5 or more touchdowns in PAC-12 title game
The last two times Oregon faced Arizona things didn't go so well for the Ducks. They will be eager to avenge those losses and punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win over the Wildcats. Quarterback Marcus Mariota helps his team do just that, while putting up more eye-popping numbers, including 5 total touchdowns. Oregon blasts Arizona 41 - 29.
5. The Big 12 changes their motto to "As many champions as we damn well please"
The Big 12 conference's current motto is "One true champion." But the league commisioner has announced that should TCU and Baylor both finish 11 - 1, the conference would submit them as co-champions to the playoff committee, despite Baylor's head-to-head victory over the Horned Frogs. The move is obviously a strategic one to help TCU's playoff chances, since the committee lists a conference championship as one important factor in choosing the top four. It remains to be seen if they will weigh a co-championship without a championship game as heavily as an outright conference title won in a championship game. Either way, the Big 12 should probably change their motto.
1. Four or more ranked teams lose to unranked opponents
It's rivalry week, so expect upsets. Teams that should be on alert: TCU (vs Texas), UCLA (vs Stanford), Arkansas (vs Missouri), Marshall (vs W Kentucky), Florida State (vs Florida), Michigan State (vs Penn State), Clemson (vs South Carolina), Louisville (vs Kentucky), Boise State (vs Utah State). So, basically everyone.
2. Mississippi State takes down Ole Miss by margin of 10+
The Bulldogs will be looking for style points in this year's Egg Bowl, as they sit right on the edge of playoff contention. They are currently ranked fourth in the rankings, but if Alabama beats Auburn they won't be able to add a conference championship to their resume, and may get left out as a result. Arkansas exposed Ole Miss last week in a 30 - 0 blowout, and I think Mississippi State uses that game as a blueprint for defeating the rebels. Bulldogs win it, 24 - 10.
3. Ohio State's defense records four or more sacks in The Game
The Buckeyes' defense is 17th in the country with 2.9 sacks per game and look to continue their dominance against their rivals from the north. Look for Joey Bosa to create havoc in the backfield in this match-up with a struggling offensive line. The Game stays close until halftime but disruptive defensive line play in the second half helps Ohio State pull away to a 45 - 31 win.
4. Alabama's Amari Cooper tops 200 receiving yards against Auburn
It's been a special season for the wide receiver out of Miami. Meanwhile, the Auburn defense has been shredded in losses to Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Georgia, and I see Alabama following suit. The Heisman trophy may seem out of reach for Cooper, but a big game in the Iron Bowl may put him back in the mix. The receiver shines in a 41 - 30 Crimson Tide victory.
5. Melvin Gordon climbs to third on FBS rushing list
The Wisconsin running back has been outstanding lately, and is now 10th on the FBS list for most rushing yards in a season. At 2,109 yards, he should easily reach the number four spot after Saturday's showdown with Minnesota. Current number four on the list is Iowa State's Troy Davis with 2,185 yards, and current number three is USC's Marcus Allen with 2,342 yards. I think Gordon continues his historic run as he goes for 240+ rushing yards to pass Allen. Wisconsin rides him to a 30 - 24 victory to wrap up the Big Ten West.
Brett Hundley's strong QB play for UCLA was too much for USC, as the Bruins beat their cross-town rivals 38-20. UCLA will claim the PAC-12 South title if they can get past Stanford this week. Then, with a win over Oregon in the PAC-12 championship, the Bruins would have an outside shot at sneaking into the playoffs, but would need a good deal of help to get there.
2. Iowa throws Big Ten West into chaos with win over Wisconsin
The Hawkeyes gave it their best shot, but ultimately came up short against the Badgers, 26 - 24. Melvin Gordon had another big day as he eclipsed 2,000 rushing yards for the season and is on the verge of setting a new Big Ten record. Not only that, but he reached that number faster than anyone has before, and has an opportunity in the next few games to climb even higher in the record books. This week, Wisconsin faces Minnesota in what is essentially a division championship game. Winner will play the Buckeyes for the Big Ten Championship.
3. Ohio State's defense holds Indiana to 75 passing yards or less
The Buckeyes had another too-close-for-comfort showing on Saturday, trailing until late in the third quarter against the Hoosiers. Eventually, Ohio State surged ahead with the help of four touchdowns by Jalin Marshall, winning 42 - 27. In general, they were able to limit Indiana's passing game, which has been in shambles since injuries forced third-string quarterback Zander Diamont into the starting role. But a 49-yard pass in the second quarter was enough to ruin this prediction, and Diamont eventually finished with 114 yards passing. Concerns about stopping big running plays are more troubling for the Buckeyes, though, as they gave up 281 on the ground in Columbus. That, and continuing issues with turnovers, should be points of focus as they head into the all-important match-up with that school up north and then either Wisconsin or Minnesota in the Big Ten Championship.
4. Maryland hurts Michigan's bowl chances with upset in Ann Arbor
Michigan led 16 - 9 at the start of the fourth quarter, but were unable to hold off Maryland's late rally as they fell 23 - 16 to the Terrapins. The Wolverines travel to Columbus next in what could be Brady Hoke's last game as Michigan's coach. A third-straight loss to the Buckeyes to cap off a disappointing season will likely mean the end for Hoke's tenure. But the Wolverines would love nothing more than to knock Ohio State out of the playoff race, regardless of what the future holds for their head coach.
5. Florida players make it through game against Eastern Kentucky without blocking each other
It's been a rough time for Gator fans with Will Muschamp at the helm. Last year, two Florida players were caught blocking each other in an embarrassing loss to Georgia Southern. Then, in last week's loss to South Carolina, it happened again. It's no wonder Florida's been having so much trouble winning games, when they can't seem to distinguish opponents from teammates. I couldn't find any evidence of it happening again against Eastern Kentucky, so I'm making this one green. Good job, Gators.
Week 13 record: 2 - 3
Overall record: 26 - 39
Other headlines from week 13:
Melvin who?
Last week, Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon broke the single-game rushing record, which had previously stood for 15 years. One week later, and it had fallen again. But this time it was Oklahoma's freshman running back Samaje Perine, who went off for 427 yards and 5 touchdowns against Kansas. Perine graciously asked to be taken out of the game when he learned he was close to the record, but was overruled by his offensive line. Gordon later showed real class as well as he reached out to Perine to congratulate the young back and give him some advice on handling the added media attention. Kudos to both for great football and sportsmanship.
Move ref, get out the way
Jameis Winston lead the Seminoles to another close victory, this time over Boston College. But the win was not without controversy, as Winston intentionally shoved a referee when trying to line up for a play. The ref was trying to hold the offense as they had just substituted (and rules state the defense must also be allowed to substitute in this case). Many experts have come out afterwards and said the contact should have resulted in a 15-yard penalty and ejection of Winston from the game. The ref kept the flag in his pocket, though, and Florida State's QB went on to lead his team to victory.
Harvard beats Yale, takes Ivy League title
While most FBS teams are gearing up to take on their rivals this week, Harvard is celebrating winning an eighth straight win over rival Yale to end the season with an undefeated record. The latest edition of college football's oldest rivalry was a good one, as Yale rallied to tie it with 3:44 to play after being down by 17 points. But Harvard had the last say, as they scored a touchdown with less than a minute to play to win 31 - 24.
Well, they did it again. The first half followed the usual script, as anticipated, with Florida State falling behind 16 - 0 early and going into halftime with a 13-point deficit. The Seminoles rallied in the last 30 minutes, but Miami's inability to move the ball in the second half was what really blew up this prediction. The Hurricanes managed only 3 points after halftime, which was not enough to hold off Florida State's comeback. They might not look too good doing it (especially early in games), but you can't argue with the Seminoles' perfect record. Can they keep it up and hold on to a playoff spot? They survived Saturday, 30 - 26.
2. Alabama holds Mississippi State to 20 points or fewer
The Crimson Tide dominated the Bulldogs in the first half, building a 19 - 3 lead before halftime. Mississippi State finally got things going in the third quarter but were ultimately unable to reach the endzone enough times to defeat Alabama, as they fell 25 - 20. The Bulldogs are still clinging to a top-four ranking after the close loss, but they might not be there for long without somehow finding their way into (and winning) the SEC championship game. Alabama, on the other hand, now controls their own destiny after the win propelled them to the top of the rankings. But they still face tough challenges ahead with upcoming games against rival Auburn and the SEC East winner (if they make it past the Tigers).
3. Buckeye's trounce Gophers by margin of 30+ points
Ohio State had several opportunities to pull away in the first half, but turnovers kept Minnesota in the game. Despite a 14 - 0 first quarter, the Buckeyes took only a 17 - 14 lead into the locker room. Ohio State surged again to a 31 - 14 lead in the third quarter and were about to get the ball back with a chance to really put the game away, but once again let the Gophers claw their way back because of a special-teams turnover. The mistakes can probably be credited, at least somewhat, to the cold, snowy conditions, but these are still things that need to be cleaned up if the Buckeyes want to win the Big Ten and have a shot at the playoffs. As it stands, Ohio State missed a chance to really impress, as they simply survived in Minneapolis with the 31 - 24 win. It was still enough to move them up to number six in the rankings after Arizona State was upset. Can they sneak into the top four if they win out?
4. Michigan State suffers letdown loss against Maryland
Michigan State started a little sluggish on offense, but the defense was stout from beginning to end after surrendering 49 points to the Buckeyes the previous week. The Spartans are still alive in the hunt for a New Year's Six bowl, as they beat down Maryland 37 - 15. They are still technically in contention for the B1G East title as well, but would need to win out and have Ohio State drop their last two regular season games against Indiana and Michigan. Don't hold your breath, Sparty.
5. Florida State players involved in so-called hit-and-run accident don't miss any playing time on Saturday
Neither player seemed to missed any playing time against Miami, and the hit-and-run story wasn't even a blip on the radar in ESPN's prime-time coverage. FSU coach Jimbo Fisher is sending a clear message, with this and past cases, that as long as you aren't charged with a crime you won't face any consequences. And the Tallahassee Police Department is doing a great job of making sure none of the Seminole football players get charged with anything.
Week 12 record: 2 - 3
Overall record: 24 - 36
Other headlines from week 12:
Gordon sets FBS record in Wisconsin's romp over Nebraska
Melvin Gordon went from Heisman contender to Heisman front-runner as he tore up the Cornhusker's defense with a FBS single-game rushing record of 408 yards and 4 touchdowns. Even more impressive is that he didn't even play in the fourth quarter. It's scary to think how much higher he could have gone if he did. With the 59 - 24 win, Wisconsin takes control in the Big Ten West with eyes on a date with the Buckeyes in Indy.
Big guy TD, part two
Mercer University's football team took a page out of Arkansas' playbook and got a big guy in the endzone for a touchdown. The best part might have been the celebration though - which was totally worth the penalty. Watch here.
Botched field goal? No problem
Down 3 points with five seconds to play, Division III Cortland State lined up for a field goal to send it to overtime. It didn't go quite as planned. Watch below, or here.
I've said it before and I still believe it: Florida State will lose one before the end of the season. But, they've proven me wrong up to this point, so my stubbornness might be my downfall on this one. Jameis Winston may be the Seminoles' most valuable asset and at the same time their biggest weakness. The 2013 Heisman winner has thrown 6 interceptions over the past 3 games, but has come through in the clutch when it really matters. The pattern appears to continue this Saturday, as first-half turnovers give the Hurricanes an early lead and Seminoles try to rally after halftime. But the dynamic Miami offense makes the difference in this one as they continue to score to hold off the Florida State rally. Miami wins, 41 - 37.
2. Alabama holds Mississippi State to 20 points or fewer
Something's got to give in this match-up featuring the nation's second-best defense vs the twelfth-best offense. The Crimson Tide are allowing just shy of 14 points per game, while the Bulldogs are posting almost 40 points per game. At home, eyeing a SEC championship and playoff spot, I give the edge to Nick Saban's squad who haven't surrendered more than 23 points in a game all season. Alabama takes control of the SEC West with a staunch defensive performance, winning 30 - 20.
3. Buckeye's trounce Gophers by margin of 30+ points
This match-up in Minneapolis is the definition of a trap game for Ohio State. The Bucks are coming off their biggest win of the season and now have the inside track for a division title, a shot at a B1G Championship, and possibly a playoff spot. Meyer has reiterated that the focus will still be there, though, and I believe it. This is a critical game for Ohio State, as the Gophers serve as a common opponent between the Buckeyes and TCU, a team also right in the playoff mix. The Horned Frogs beat Minnesota 30 - 7, so a big blowout win will help Ohio State's playoff argument, while a closer game or upset will obviously work in TCU's favor. Meyer knows this and will have his team ready. Minnesota just blew out rival Iowa and might be the second best team Ohio State will face in the regular season, but they don't match up well in this game against a hungry Buckeye team. OSU dominates in all stages of the game as they roll over Minnesota, 47 - 16.
4. Michigan State suffers letdown loss against Maryland
Motivation may be an issue for the Spartans after the disappointing loss to Ohio State, as any playoff hopes and conference championship dreams are likely out of reach now. Michigan State could still make one of the major bowls if they win out from here and get some help, but even that is a far cry from the goals set by the up-and-coming program at the beginning of the season. Maryland, on the other hand, had a bye week after their big win over Penn State and look to improve their bowl standing and make some more noise in the Big Ten with another win. Michigan State comes out sluggish, giving the Terrapins a sizable first half lead. Spartans rally in the second half but can't overcome the deficit in a 30 - 27 loss.
5. Florida State players involved in so-called hit-and-run accident don't miss any playing time on Saturday
P.J. Williams and Ronald Darby, starting cornerbacks for the Florida State Seminoles, are the latest targets of too-early, unsubstantiated accusations. On Friday, The New York Times released a report indicating the two were involved in a "hit-and-run" accident back in October (so long ago, right? Why are we still talking about this?) but were only given a couple traffic tickets. The author made claims that the players received special treatment because of their status on the football team. But where is the proof? The Tallahassee police did not charge Williams with a hit-and-run, so that means it wasn't a hit-and-run, right? Why should these young men face any kind of consequences, when we all make mistakes (and then flee the scene). Plus it's just too early to really know what happened, and none of us were there, so who are we to judge? FSU coach Jimbo Fisher understands all of this, and that's why he won't wrongly condemn these poor victims when all they want to do is play football (and commit the occasional criminal act). So, I think they will (and should) play on Saturday. Fisher will remind us that we should not jump to conclusions or make accusations until after all the facts are known, everything is sorted out in an untimely matter, and any possible football championships are won.
The Tigers took a 13 - 10 lead with 50 seconds left in regulation but were unable to hold Alabama when it counted most. The Crimson Tide drove 55 yards and tied the game up with a field goal as time expired. Alabama secured the victory in overtime, 20 - 13, keeping their playoff hopes alive. They take on undefeated Mississippi State next week in a game that will play a huge role in deciding the SEC West champion and possibly the SEC's representative in the playoffs.
2. Baylor knocks off Oklahoma
Baylor made their own case for a playoff spot as they stomped Oklahoma 48 - 14. If they win out, they win the Big 12. But is it enough to reach the playoffs, considering TCU is still ranked ahead of them, despite their head-to-head victory over the Horned Frogs? The biggest thing holding the Bears back is their weak non-conference schedule and, obviously, the bad loss to West Virginia. We will see.
3. Ohio State avenges last year's B1G title game loss
The Buckeyes had a bit of a shaky start, as anticipated, but a couple of long passes by Barrett in the second quarter opened things up for Ohio State's offense. Overall, the young QB had a great night, throwing for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, while adding another 86 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground. The defense still showed obvious flaws, as tackling fundamentals were lacking throughout. But the offense did plenty to notch a huge 49 - 37 win over Michigan State, which essentially gives the Buckeyes a 2-game lead over the Spartans in the Big Ten East. But Ohio State has their eye on much more than a division title, as they will undoubtedly move up the rankings after the statement victory. However, a tricky match-up awaits next week, as OSU travels to take on a very good Minnesota team that has flown under the radar for much of the season.
4. Four or more match-ups between ranked teams are decided by 7 points or less
I was not even close with this one, as only one of the six games fit the criteria. It started with Baylor dismantling Oklahoma 48 - 14. Then Arizona State capitalized on the mistake-prone Irish in a 55 - 31 win. In the night games, TCU pounded Kansas State 41 - 20, while Ohio State picked apart Michigan State 49 - 37. The only close game was Alabama's 20 - 13 overtime win over LSU. Despite the lopsided scores, it was still a fun weekend in college football. Now we wait to see the new CFP rankings as the dust settles from these big-time games.
5. I get two or more of the above picks right
Yay!
Week 11 record: 3 - 2
Overall record: 22 - 33
Other headlines from week 11:
Auburn's luck runs out
The past two years it has seemed like Auburn was always on the winning side of close games (save the national championship versus Florida State). From the game-winning TD return on the missed field goal against Alabama last year, to the endzone fumble by Ole Miss which preserved the Tiger's win over the Rebels just one week ago. They had earned the title "Team of Destiny" based on these crazy outcomes that always seemed to swing in their favor. But after Saturday it seems Auburn will be destined to watch other teams duke it out for a national title as they suffered their second loss of the season. It was Texas A&M who had fate on their side, as they recovered two late fumbles by the Tigers, including one on the goal-line. Auburn fell to the Aggies, 41 - 38, and look to fall in the rankings as well.
Ultimate face-palm by Utah wide receiver
The Utes were leading Oregon 7 - 0 at the beginning of the second quarter when Travis Wilson hit Kaelin Clay in stride for what appeared to be a 79-yard touchdown pass. But an inexplicable blunder by the wide receiver led to Oregon tying it at 7, instead of a 14 - 0 lead for Utah. It may not have changed the final outcome, as the Ducks went on to win by 24, but you never know. This was clearly a momentum shift and a play that I'm sure is leaving the Utes wondering what-if. You just have to watch it.
Death Valley... the place where opponents' dreams come to die. Alabama's points per game at home: 48.5. Average points on the road? 24.5. Tigers smother the Crimson Tide in a physical match-up of SEC West titans, 17 - 10.
2. Baylor knocks off Oklahoma
Despite the higher ranking and better record, Baylor is the underdog going into Saturday's game against the Sooners. History is not on Baylor's side, as Oklahoma leads the series 21 - 2 and the Bears have not beaten a ranked opponent on the road since 1991. Baylor QB Bryce Petty writes a bit of his own history on Saturday in a 41 - 38 win.
3. Ohio State avenges last year's B1G title game loss
The Buckeyes are hungry for this one, as they travel to East Lansing for the most important regular season game in the Big Ten this year. But the Spartans are more experienced and have the better-looking resume. Buckeyes struggle early under the lights, but the offense gets rolling with a couple of big running plays by J.T. Barrett. Expect another nail-biter in prime-time, as Ohio State edges Michigan State, 34 - 31.
4. Four or more match-ups between ranked teams are decided by 7 points or less
An exciting Saturday of college football is headlined with six clashes between ranked teams, including two between top-10 teams. At this point in the season we have a pretty good idea of who deserves to be ranked and who doesn't, so I expect some close games between some great teams. All of these showdowns have potential playoff implications, so everybody involved should be highly motivated, whether playing for a potential shot at the top four or looking to spoil someone else's championship season. Let the fun begin.
5. I get two or more of the above picks right
After ten weeks, I'm averaging only 1.9 correct picks per week and have only managed to get more than 2 picks twice (and have never gotten more than 3). Look for me to turn it around this week and nail 3 or more picks (including this one of course). If I get 4 right I will be thrilled. If I get all 5 I might retire.
The Cardinals flew to a 21 - 0 lead with the help of a couple of interceptions thrown by Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston, but were unable to hold off the Seminoles in the second half. Overall, Florida State's offense turned in an impressive performance against a stout Louisville defense, coming back to win 42 - 31. With the victory - the Seminoles' 24th straight - they remain one of only a few teams in the driver's seat of the playoff race.
2. Oregon beats Stanford by double-digits
The Ducks had an even bigger win than what I predicted, as they stomped Stanford 45 - 16. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota made another strong argument in the Heisman discussion as he led his team to their first win over the Cardinal since his arrival in Eugene. The path to the playoff is clear: run the table and win the Pac-12 and they're a virtual lock. Utah and the Pac-12 South winner (among others) will have their say on the matter first, though.
3. Ezekiel Elliott rushes for career-high yardage against Illinois
The Buckeyes chose to rest up Elliot and Barrett both in this one, so the Ohio State running back was nowhere near breaking any personal records. Everyone got their turn in the blowout, with six Buckeyes getting at least five carries, accumulating a total of 296 rushing yards. The Illibuck stays in Columbus for at least another year as Ohio State thrashed Illinois, 55 - 14. There's no time to celebrate, though, as the attention immediately turns to the monumental match-up with Michigan State.
4. Maryland beats Penn State for the Nittany Lions' fourth-straight loss
I was spot on with this prediction, as Maryland's offense finally got going in the fourth quarter to notch a 20 - 19 victory over Penn State (pretty close to my 20 - 17 guess). It was the Terrapin's first-ever win in Happy Valley, and only their second against the Nittany Lions. Maryland players came out trying to stir up some emotions in the newly revived rivalry, as the team captains refused to shake hands with their Penn State counterparts. The Terrapins become bowl-eligible with the win, while the Nittany Lions try to regroup and stop their season from spiraling further out of control.
5. Alabama's Nick Saban starts charity fund to pay for new sports car
Saban didn't have any cars paid for by boosters (as far as I know), but the NCAA would not care if he did. Meanwhile, Georgia running back Todd Gurley is still serving a four-game suspension for accepting $3000 for autographing memorabilia. Now, I'm not saying Gurley doesn't deserve the punishment. He clearly violated NCAA rules and should face the repercussions of that decision. But doesn't it seem like there's something wrong with this picture? Coaches, universities, TV networks, etc. all rake in millions of dollars from college athletics. But the players don't see a dime of that money (aside from scholarships). I am not advocating we just start letting NCAA athletes accept money or pay them a salary. The implications of doing either are far reaching and lead down a slippery slope that ends in a bad place. I don't have a solution, but I can see there's a problem.
Week 10 record: 2 - 3
Overall record: 19 - 31
Other headlines from week 10:
Unbeatens survive, while other contenders fall
Top-ranked and undefeated Mississippi State and Florida State both scraped by this week and hold on to the top two spots for at least another week. Marshall remains undefeated as well, but has yet to garner the attention of the CFP committee. Meanwhile, things are starting to get clearer (marginally) in the group of one-loss teams. Ole Miss suffered a second-straight loss, Georgia was exposed by Florida, Arizona was stuffed by UCLA, Utah fell to Arizona State in overtime, and East Carolina was upset by Temple. There are still a lot of one-loss teams left, all eyeing those top four spots. These last few weeks of the season should be a wild ride as these teams duke it out.
Four team race in the Big Ten West
This weekend's game in East Lansing may likely determine the Big Ten East winner, but the West is still wide open. This past week, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Iowa cemented their spots as three of the top four in the division with blowout wins, while Minnesota enjoyed a bye week. The four teams remain tied, each with one conference loss. Nebraska still looks the best, with their sole loss coming against the Spartans. But it's still hard to say for sure, since none of these four teams have played each other yet. That changes starting this week, as Iowa and Minnesota face off in Minneapolis, and in the remaining weeks they all eventually play one another. The Gophers face the toughest remaining schedule, as they still have to play Ohio State, while the others miss the Buckeyes this year, and the Cornhuskers are the only ones to play Michigan State. The Big Ten West race will be fun to watch, and will probably come down to the final week of the regular season.
Keep your eye on the ball
Indiana State tried something a little different on their kick return, down by one with less than a minute to play. Broken tackles may have been a bigger factor than the design itself, but nonetheless, the big return setup a game-winning field goal.
If this game were played last week I wouldn't even consider this a bold prediction. Florida State is coming off a huge win against Notre Dame that likely left the team physically and emotionally exhausted. With almost two weeks to get ready for the Cardinals, you'd expect the Seminoles to be fully prepared. But it's possible the focus wasn't there last week after the close win and with the players knowing they had a bye. Suddenly, it's a short week and then a trip to face a stingy Louisville defense. A late field goal propels the Cardinals to a 26 - 24 victory over the Seminoles.
2. Oregon beats Stanford by double-digits
Stanford seems to have had Oregon's number in recent years, but the Ducks won't fall victim this time around. Stanford doesn't have the power running attack they've had success with in previous seasons and has also been prone to more turnovers than usual. Oregon capitalizes on Stanford's mistakes for a 29 - 17 home win.
3. Ezekiel Elliott rushes for career-high yardage against Illinois
Ohio State has a long history of big rushing performances against the Fighting Illini and this year looks to be no different. Last year, Carlos Hyde ran for 246 yards against Illinois, third best in school history. Number one and two? Eddie George and Keith Byars, respectively, both against Illinois. With Rod Smith's departure and Barrett dealing with an MCL sprain, Elliot could have a hefty workload on Saturday, facing an Illini defense giving up over 250 rushing yards per game. He needs 183 rushing yards to surpass his previous career-best versus Cincinnati earlier this season, but I think he has a good shot of hitting the 200 mark. Barrett gets some rest as the Buckeyes ride Elliott to a 44 - 14 triumph.
4. Maryland beats Penn State for the Nittany Lions' fourth-straight loss
Penn State gave Ohio State everything they could handle and more last week, but ultimately fell in double overtime. Meanwhile, Maryland took a 52 - 7 beating at Wisconsin, their worst loss of the season. So it all depends on how these two teams respond to different but equally tough losses. My guess is Penn State limps in after losing three in a row, down on themselves, especially after an encouraging 4 - 0 start. Maryland, on the other hand, will look to rebound and get bow eligible. The Terrapins' offense may struggle at first with the large crowd, but Penn State's offense stalls as Maryland eventually gets things going in the second half. Nittany Lions lose again, 20 - 17.
5. Alabama's Nick Saban starts charity fund to pay for new sports car
Life can be tough for the top coaches in college football. It's not easy making ends meet on a measly $7 million per year. The Crimson Tide Foundation recognized this, and eased things a bit for Alabama head coach Nick Saban by paying off his $3.1 million house. Now if only he can get them to pay for a new Ferrari... a coach needs a way to get around, right?
LSU coach Les Miles has called Death Valley "the place where opponents' dreams come to die." That may in fact be the case for Ole Miss, as Bo Wallace threw an interception with seconds left to play after opting to go for the win instead of a 47-yard game-tying field goal. The end result was a 10 - 7 win for the Tigers, the first loss of the season for Ole Miss. The Rebels can still win out to make it to the SEC championship game, but face some tough games ahead and no longer have any margin for error.
2. Michigan shocks Michigan State in East Lansing
The Wolverines' defense kept it close for most of the first half, but a late second-quarter touchdown and pick-six in the third fueled the Spartans on to a 35 - 11 win. The only victory for Michigan that day was a touchdown in the fourth quarter, their first against Michigan State since 2011. Based on what I've said earlier about Brady Hoke's job security, the game against Ohio State is now a must-win for the Wolverines for the Michigan coach to have any chance of keeping his job. I still stand by this assessment.
3. Ohio State scores at least 14 points in the first quarter against Penn State
The Buckeyes scored their first touchdown off a questionable interception (which was not reviewed properly due to technical difficulties), but didn't reach the end-zone again until late in the second quarter. Ohio State played lights-out defense and moved the ball efficiently in the first half to build a 17 - 0 lead. But the second half belonged to the Nittany Lions, who tallied a pick-six and rallied in the fourth quarter to send it to overtime. The Buckeyes ultimately prevailed in double OT but the game may serve as a bit of a reality check for the Ohio State offense, which was not nearly as explosive as it had been in previous weeks. However, the performance by the defense was encouraging, as was the team's resiliency, despite a raucous crowd. Most notable was Barrett's effort in overtime while dealing with an MCL sprain, and Joey Bosa's beastly performance which included the game-winning fourth down sack.
4. One or both Washington teams take down their Arizonian opponents
Arizona jumped out to a 24 - 0 lead over Washington State, so the Cougars were stuck playing catch-up all game. They were never quite able to close the gap, as the Wildcats pulled away to a 59 - 37 victory. In the other match-up, Washington had a slow start as anticipated, but never got much going against the Sun Devils, as they were held to only 10 points. Arizona State's strong defensive performance gave them the win, 24 - 10. Arizona State and Arizona continue to work their way up the rankings, but have big tests ahead, including Nov 1 games against Utah and UCLA, respectively.
5. SMU tallies 7 or more points against Memphis
The Mustangs managed to score a touchdown and a field goal, to end up with 10 points for the game, their second best offensive performance of the season so far. Of course, it was not enough to compete with Memphis, as they fell 48 - 10. Rumors have circulated that SMU might be looking at former Texas coach Mack Brown to revive the program. It's unclear whether Brown has interest or how successful he would be there, but you'd have to think he could do better than 0 - 7.
Week 9 record: 2 - 3 (I'm starting to sense a pattern...)
Overall record: 17 - 28
Other headlines from week 9:
First edition of College Football Playoff rankings released
The CFP Committee has finally revealed their much-anticipated first set of rankings, which I'm sure are already being highly scrutinized and analyzed. While there are a few surprises and notable differences with the AP poll, I don't think it means too much at this point. We learn a little bit about the committee's thinking process, but I think we can count on a very different set of rankings by season's end.
Illinois brings down Minnesota in first conference win
It was the Fighting Illini's first Big Ten win this season, and only the second in coach Tim Beckman's tenure in Champaign. Illinois doesn't have much time to celebrate, though, as they face a tough road trip to Columbus next week to take on the Buckeyes. Minnesota will have a bye week as they try to regroup after the tough loss, which was their first in conference play. The Gophers remain in first place in the West but have a brutal stretch of games remaining. These last four games may prove to define the season for Minnesota as they try for a division title.
Big guy scores TD for Arkansas
Who says a 350-pound lineman can't throw a touchdown pass? Not Arkansas coach Brett Bielema.
The Tigers are a different team at home this year, as they nearly rallied to take down now-number-one Miss State a month ago in Baton Rouge. Ole Miss has not beaten LSU in their stadium since 2008. It will be a close game that comes down to the wire, but I think "The Hat" has a few tricks up his sleeve to pull off the upset. Tigers down the Rebels, 28 - 24.
2. Michigan shocks Michigan State in East Lansing
There is no logical reason to believe the Wolverines stand a chance in this one. On paper, the Spartans win hands down, as Michigan State holds the advantage in pretty much every category. But the great thing about college football is that sometimes the inexplicable happens, especially in rivalry games. I'm going out on a limb and calling for a 27 - 26 Michigan victory.
3. Ohio State scores at least 14 points in the first quarter against Penn State
Fast starts have been par for the course for the surging Buckeyes, as they've tallied two touchdowns or more in the first quarter of each of their past 4 games. Getting on the board quickly may prove crucial Saturday night, as they try to silence a large home crowd in Happy Valley. But Penn State's defense is only allowing 15 points per game and have had two weeks to prepare for Ohio State, so it won't be easy. Throw in the fact that the Nittany Lions will be looking to avenge last year's 63 - 14 thrashing in Columbus, and suddenly what appeared to be another soft match-up becomes a trickier endeavor However, Penn State has yet to face an offense like this one. Buckeyes strike early and often on the way to a 40 - 20 statement win.
4. One or both Washington teams take down their Arizonian opponents
It's a battle between states this week as Arizona and Arizona State travel to Washington State and Washington, respectively. The Arizona schools are both ranked and favored over their foes from the Evergreen state, but I think one of them falls short this weekend. If Washington State can play just a little bit of defense they can compete with the Wildcats, as their offense can score touchdowns in bunches. For Washington it's all about how they respond after the bad loss at Oregon, as I think they match up pretty evenly with the Sun Devils. My guess is the Cougars get it done, as Washington State QB Halliday leads the team to a 38 - 35 surprise win over Arizona. The Huskies start slowly and can't catch back up despite a strong second-half, falling 29 - 27 to Arizona State.
5. SMU tallies 7 or more points against Memphis
The SMU Mustangs are the last remaining winless FBS team in the country and rank dead-last in points scored and points allowed. They average just 6.5 points per game and have been shut out twice. SMU's best offensive showing was a 24-point explosion in a loss to East Carolina - one of only two games where they reached the endzone. The Mustangs don't stand a chance against a mediocre Memphis team, but hey, who knows, maybe they score a touchdown? Memphis still wins, of course, 41 - 7.
1. Texas A&M knocks Alabama out of playoff contention
So... yeah. This one was quite clearly a bust. Alabama silenced critics by absolutely crushing Texas A&M, 59 - 0. If Alabama wins out, they will still be in good position to make the playoff, depending on how the rest of the SEC West shakes out. They still have upcoming games against LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn, though, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.
2. Florida State embarrasses Notre Dame with 20+ point victory
I was right that the Seminoles wouldn't lose, but way off about how close it would be. Notre Dame held the lead for much of the night, matching up quite evenly with Florida State in all phases of the game. It wasn't until halfway through the fourth quarter that the defending national champs finally took the lead. It would prove to be the winning score, as Notre Dame fell short on their final drive. The Irish had what appeared to be the go-ahead touchdown on fourth-and-goal with seconds remaining but a controversial offensive pass-interference call erased the score and ultimately ended Notre Dame's upset bid. Florida State barely survived, 31 - 27.
3. Rutgers' Leonte Carroo has 100+ receiving yards against Ohio State
Carroo had exactly 100 receiving yards on five catches, but in general, Rutgers did not consistently move the ball, as predicted. Ohio State continued their offensive dominance as they cruised to a 56 - 17 victory. Things get considerably more difficult as the Buckeyes travel to Penn State to take on the Nittany Lions in a hostile night game environment.
4. Northwestern mixes up the Big Ten West race with win over Nebraska
This one started close, with the Wildcats holding a 3-point lead at halftime. But a second half dominated by the Cornhuskers ruined this prediction. Nebraska still controls their own destiny in the West, with the most important games coming at the end of the season, against Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. But for now, the Cornhuskers look the part of division champ, after a 38 - 17 win over Northwestern.
5. New evidence comes to light that shows Ben Affleck is not Batman
So, it turns out that Ben Affleck is PLAYING Batman in the movie Batman v Superman. I guess I would have discovered this had I actually read the article I linked to in my prediction (crazy, right?). Either way, this prediction was accurate. The part about Michigan State beating Indiana was good too, as the Spartans posted a 56 - 17 win over the Hoosiers.
Week 8 record: 2 - 3
Overall record: 15 - 25
Baylor falls to West Virginia, only four unbeatens remain
Looks like I was a week early on the Baylor upset prediction, as West Virginia was the team to hold the Bears under 30 points. The Mountaineers surprised everyone with a 41 - 27 victory. Baylor's defeat, combined with Notre Dame's loss, means only four teams are still undefeated. Things are starting to get interesting - will anyone survive this season without a loss?
Dark horse Heisman candidate in Columbus?
No, I'm not talking about Braxton Miller in 2015. Ohio State's J.T. Barrett may have struggled early on, but since the loss to Virginia Tech he's looked about as good, if not better, than any other quarterback in the country. Barrett holds the highest total QBR (quarterback rating) since week 3, has four straight games with 4 or more touchdowns, while leading the offense to 50+ points and over 500 yards in each of those contests. He's currently on pace to post season stats similar to those earned by Manziel and Winston in their respective Heisman seasons. The biggest question on the minds of fans and critics alike, is whether his numbers are due to facing weak defenses or if he really is that improved. A good measuring stick comes up next against a Penn State team ranked 6th nationally in scoring defense. Then the real test will arrive a couple weeks later against a very tough Michigan State squad. If Barrett has a big day against the Nittany Lions he will officially enter the conversation. If he posts similar stats in a win over the Spartans, he will be right in the mix as a top-five contender.
Like father, like son?
Joe Montana's son, Nick Montana, had Tulane lined up as precious seconds ticked off the clock in the first half against UCF. Montana opted to spike the ball to stop the clock. What he didn't realize was the previous third-down conversion had failed, meaning the Green Wave were already facing fourth down before the spike. Oops. The knights went on to win by a touchdown.
1. Texas A&M knocks Alabama out of playoff contention
The Crimson Tide survived a scare last week at Arkansas, and certainly won't be overlooking the Aggies since the last couple games between these teams have been decided by a touchdown or less. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is looking to avoid a third-straight loss and regain some pride. The teams are mirror-images of one another, as Alabama boasts a 6th-ranked defense and 48th-ranked offense, while A&M features the 6th best offense and 48th-best defense. But the Aggies' offense sets the tone in this one in a 33 - 28 win.
2. Florida State embarrasses Notre Dame with 20+ point victory
I still think the Seminoles are going to lose one before all is said and done, but it won't be this week. They've had this game circled from the beginning of the season and will be ready against a Notre Dame team that has been prone to turning the ball over lately. If we examine recent history for these two teams, we see that Notre Dame has struggled mightily against top-5 opponents. Florida State has also won the past two meetings of these schools, and holds an overall 5 - 2 advantage in the series. The trend continues on Saturday with a big win for the Noles, 43 - 23.
3. Rutgers' Leonte Carroo has 100+ receiving yards against Ohio State
The wide receiver out of New Jersey is on target to break 1,000 receiving yards this season and is poised to have a big game against Ohio State. If the Buckeyes have a weakness, it's the inability to limit big passing plays. The Scarlet Knights will try to exploit this by getting Carroo open in space, and will likely have some success doing so. However, Rutgers will not be able to move the ball consistently enough to keep up with the Ohio State offense which has looked unstoppable in three straight blowout wins. A big day for Carroo is not enough as the Bucks roll to a 45 - 27 win.
4. Northwestern mixes up the Big Ten West race with win over Nebraska
Things are already pretty cloudy in the West Division of the Big Ten with Iowa and Minnesota atop the standings and Northwestern, Nebraska, and Wisconsin close behind. While a loss wouldn't eliminate the Cornhuskers as a B1G title contender, it would make it an uphill battle for a team that was picked by many to represent the West in Indy. Since joining the conference, games against Northwestern have been extremely close, and this one figures to be as well. Last year the Cornhuskers shocked the Wildcats with a last-second Hail Mary. This year, Fitzgerald's squad repays the favor with their own fourth-quarter comeback win, 31 - 30.
5. New evidence comes to light that shows Ben Affleck is not Batman
On Thursday, movie star Ben Affleck dropped a bombshell by revealing that he was Batman during a speech to the Michigan State Spartans. I, however, remain skeptical. First, I see no motivation for Affleck to out himself as the Caped Crusader. Keeping your true identity a secret is rule #1 among superheroes and the real Batman would know this. Secondly, while Affleck certainly has the money to pay for the Batmobile and all the gadgets, he does not have the attitude to pull it off. Sorry, but something about that silly smirk of his just doesn't seem like it could strike fear into the heart of the criminals of Gotham.
The speech, on the other hand, will prove effective, motivating the Spartans to beat Indiana on Saturday. They will have laser-sharp focus as they take on the Hoosiers, no longer distracted by that nagging question: "Who is Batman?" MSU wins, 48 - 20.
As predicted, and as happens so often after the underdog pulls off the big upset, Arizona had a letdown the following week. USC dominated the first half, but the Wildcats rallied late to pull within two. However, a missed field goal with 17 seconds left gave the Trojans the win, 28 - 26.
2. Oregon and UCLA combine for 90+ points in an epicshootout
Oregon's offense did their part for this prediction, but Hundley and the Bruins were held in check for most of the game. The Ducks showed they are still the top playoff contenders in the Pac-12 with a 42 - 30 victory. It was a high-scoring affair, but not quite the fireworks display I was expecting.
3. TCU holds Baylor to 30 points orless
Speaking of fireworks, Baylor and TCU put on quite a show. The Horned Frogs barely held the Bears to 30 points in the first half. TCU surged to a 58 - 37 lead, but a fourth quarter collapse allowed Baylor to score the final 24 points in a stunning comeback win for the Bears. Baylor is now in the driver's seat in the Big 12 and is a real contender for the playoffs after knocking off TCU, 61 - 58.
4. Georgia running back Nick Chubb runs for 150+ yards in Gurley's absence
Chubb took over as Georgia's workhorse with 38 rushes, but averaged a modest 3.8 yards per carry. The result was a total of 143 rushing yards, just shy of my prediction. The offense managed fine without Gurley, and the defense turned in a superb performance to give the Bulldogs an impressive 34 - 0 win over Missouri. But if Gurley's NCAA status isn't resolved soon, the junior running back can forget about any chance at winning a Heisman this year.
5. Florida has a QB available to play on Saturday
Treon Harris was reinstated on Friday after the sexual battery complaint was withdrawn, but coaches kept him out of the game. This left Jeff Driskel as the Gators' only option, resulting in a 30 - 27 loss to LSU. Florida will look to rebound against Missouri next week.
Week 7 record: 2 - 3
Overall record: 13 - 22
Refs botch end of Alabama vs. Arkansas game
Alabama was facing a critical third down, clinging to a 14 - 13 lead against Arkansas with only 1:01 to play, when they were flagged for a false start. The clock should have stayed at 1:01 until the next snap. However, after being penalized the five yards for the false start, the referees incorrectly signaled for the clock to start running. The result was that the next play run by the Crimson Tide was enough to drain the rest of the clock, giving Alabama the win. Arkansas would've still needed a miracle to win, even if the clock had been managed properly and they got the ball back, but crazier things have happened. The Razorbacks deserved that shot after outplaying the Tide for most of the game.
State of Mississippi keeps going strong
Ole Miss and Mississippi State stand alone as the last unbeaten teams in the SEC after notching double-digit wins against Texas A&M and Auburn, respectively, this week. The win for the Bulldogs was enough to propel them to the number one spot in the rankings, while the Rebels hangs out not far behind, at third. If both teams win out, the Nov 29 showdown between the two will effectively be a division championship game, and step one to earning a playoff bid.
College Football poised for exciting second half
The number of unbeatens dwindle, while the group of one-loss teams expands. As I've stated before, going undefeated in a Power-5 effectively guarantees a playoff spot, but what if only one or two teams go undefeated (as I've also mentioned as a likelihood)? If there are a bunch of one-loss teams at the end of the season, who gets the nod? Based on what the selection committee has said about the process, it sounds like conference champions will get an advantage in this kind of scenario. But with five major conferences, if no champion has more than one loss, who gets left out? And what about a one-loss SEC west team that doesn't make the SEC championship? Will the committee show them the same love the polls have up to this point and put them ahead of once-beaten teams from other conferences? Throw in a 11 - 1 Notre Dame squad and the whole thing seems like a crap-shoot. We still have a lot of football left, so things may work themselves out eventually. Either way, the second half of the season should be fun to watch, as dozens of teams try to claw their way into the top four.
The Arizona Wildcats are feeling good after the big win against Oregon. Which is just the more reason they may fall victim to a classic trap game scenario. USC will surprise Arizona with a 26 - 23 win on the road.
2. Oregon and UCLA combine for 90+ points in an epicshootout
Both these teams look to rebound after suffering surprising losses to unranked teams. Both feature Heisman candidate quarterbacks and high-powered offenses. So I'm counting on a lot of points in this one. I think it could go either way, but I give the slight edge to Oregon. Ducks win a thriller, 48 - 45.
3. TCU holds Baylor to 30 points orless
Baylor is averaging a national best 51 points per game this season and will try to keep the trend going against a gritty TCU defense. But the Horned Frogs showed they can play with the big boys after upsetting Oklahoma last week. The Bears' competition to this point has been nowhere near what they will face on Saturday. They get exposed, as TCU cruises to a 40 - 28 win.
4. Georgia running back Nick Chubb runs for 150+ yards in Gurley's absence
Freshman Nick Chubb has big shoes to fill, with Todd Gurley suspended indefinitely while being investigated for alleged NCAA rules violations. But Missouri has shown that they are susceptible to the run, giving the young running back an opportunity to showcase his own skills. He has shown glimpses of greatness, so I see this as a possible breakout game for him in a 37 - 31 victory for the Bulldogs.
5. Florida has a QB available to play on Saturday
The Gators' sophomore quarterback Skyler Mornhinweg is questionable for Saturday's game against LSU after being treated for injuries sustained in a brawl with teammate Gerald Willis III over a pair of cleats. Meanwhile, true freshman QB Treon Harris is suspended while being investigated on charges of sexual assault. So Florida may be stuck with multi-year starter Jeff Driskel, which is actually probably unwelcome news to many Gator fans. But who knows, maybe he will try to rob a bank or something and Florida can just play without a quarterback.
1. Four or more ranked teams lose to unranked or lower-ranked teams
Yeah, it was definitely one of those weeks. First, Oregon lost to unranked Arizona. Then BYU lost to unranked Utah State. But the real chaos got underway on Saturday with Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, and Wisconsin all falling to unranked or lower ranked opponents. That's 7 teams (not including Oregon) that matched the criteria, making this prediction a slam-dunk. In all, here are the ranks of teams in the top 25 that lost this week (keep in mind, some of these suffered losses to other ranked teams, but still): #2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, and 19. Wow.
2. Alabama beats Ole Miss by 14+ points
Clearly this one didn't pan out, because the Crimson Tide made the list above. This was not even close to a blow-out, with Alabama's largest cushion a 14 - 3 halftime lead. The Rebels rallied in the second half to stun Nick Saban's third-ranked Alabama squad, 23 - 17. The win was part of a big day for football in the state of Mississippi, with the Mississippi State Bulldogs also notching a big win, 48 - 31 over Texas A&M.
3. Michigan State holds Ameer Abdullah under 100 yards rushing
The Spartans barely survived a furious fourth quarter rally by the Cornhuskers, but completely shut down the run game, holding Abdullah to just 45 rushing yards. Michigan State reminded everyone why they were the top team in the Big Ten in 2013 with their suffocating defense. The Nebraska running back's Heisman hopes aren't completely dashed, but it's going to be an uphill battle after a flat performance in what could have been a shining moment against a top ten defense. Final score 27 - 22 MSU (compared to my prediction of 27 - 23.)
4. J.T. Barrett throws for over 300 yards for the third straight game
The rapidly maturing Buckeye quarterback had another outstanding game but fell just short of the 300 mark, with 267 yards passing. If Maryland's offense had been able to keep pace, Barrett would have easily reached the milestone again. But with a big second half lead, Ohio State leaned on the run game led by Ezekiel Elliott and eventually, backup QB Cardale Jones took over. Ohio State hasn't faced a defense as good as Virginia Tech's since the week 2 loss, but they look like a totally different team after outscoring opponents 168 - 52 since. The real test will come on November 8, when the Buckeyes travel to East Lansing to take on Michigan State in a match-up that will likely decide the division winner and eliminate any remaining playoff hopes for one of the teams.
5. Either Massachusetts or Miami (OH) wins a game this week
UMass went into the locker room with a 41 - 21 lead, looking like the better of these two MAC cellar-dwellers. But a big second half for the Redhawks, helped by several Minutemen turnovers, sparked a comeback win for Miami. It might be their only win of the season, but they fought hard for it. Final score: 42 - 41.
Week 6 record: 3 - 2
Overall record: 11 - 19
Other headlines from week 6:
Nobody's safe, but a loss doesn't mean disqualification
If there's one thing week 6 taught us, it's that anyone can succumb to the upset bug. I will be surprised if more than one or two teams end the regular season undefeated. As it stands, there are 10 teams with perfect records. Three of them are in the SEC West, so you can guarantee at most one of them will come out without a loss (though I think it's more likely the SEC champ will have at least one loss.) Florida State and Notre Dame play each other, so scratch another one there. Baylor and TCU face off this week, so that's one more that will go down - and I won't be shocked if the winner of that one still goes on to lose later in the season. Marshall may very well finish the season without a loss, and no one outside of the state of West Virginia will notice. Arizona sits as the lone undefeated team in the Pac-12, but there's no way they make it through their schedule unscathed. Who else is left? Georgia Tech? Please. What does all this mean? All the teams with one loss (or soon to have one loss) still have playoff hopes. It's going to be a tight battle for those four spots though.
Arizona atop Pac-12 while Michigan looks on longingly
Speaking of Arizona being the last undefeated team in the Pac-12, who saw that coming? The Wildcats made their presence known on Thursday with a stunning 31 - 24 victory over Oregon. There are few who believe they will be able to navigate their difficult schedule without stumbling at least once along the way, but not many picked them to beat the Ducks, so who knows? The cruel irony for Michigan fans: Arizona is led by head coach Rich Rodriguez. Yes, the same guy Michigan fired a few years back after not making enough progress in his three years with the program. Fast forward to right now, and the Wolverines are in disarray, with a 2 - 4 record and a coach whose win percentage has declined each year since taking the job. Rodriguez had a rocky start, but his win total at least went up every year at Michigan. You have to bet there are many in Ann Arbor regretting the decision to send him packing, and wondering what could have been.
Wisconsin reeling, Northwestern surging
Other than Michigan's woeful start of the season, two of the other biggest surprises in the Big Ten have been Wisconsin and Northwestern. The Badgers started the season with a close loss to LSU, but still looked like they could be one of the top teams in the conference. But after the upset loss to the Wildcats and LSU's blowout at the hands of Auburn, they look shaky at best. If you recall, I mentioned back in week 1 that Wisconsin would need improved quarterback play to compete in the Big Ten. Well, although they had Joel Stave back for their conference opener, the offense struggled with both quarterbacks. Stave and McEvoy combined to complete 12 of 29 passes for 138 yards, with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. Eek. Even the run game has been inconsistent, going for stretches of time without getting much going. Northwestern capitalized to take down the Badgers, 20 - 14. The win is just the latest for the Wildcats, who were left for dead after an 0 - 2 start. They have since turned the season around with upsets of Penn State and now Wisconsin. If they can keep their momentum, they could very well be a factor in the B1G West division in November.
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