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Friday, December 2, 2016

College Football Three and Out: Week 14

First and 2: Recapping week 13



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Tigers take down Tide

The Tide rolled on and enters championship week a solid #1 and a near lock for the playoffs, even if they somehow lose to Florida in the SEC title game.  But they won't, so it doesn't matter.  Bama hasn't given up a touchdown since October 22.

B1G Bold Prediction: Iowa defeats Nebraska

The Hawkeyes didn't just win, they dominated.  They out-rushed the Cornhuskers 264-90 in a physical beat-down that ended any possibility of a trip to Indy for Mike Riley's team.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU racks up 200+ on the ground vs TTUN

What an epic game.  Michigan seemed like they were in control, but the Silver Bullets stepped up and Barrett came alive in the fourth quarter to spark a comeback victory.  It appears that the Buckeyes are headed for the playoffs, even without a conference title, right?  More on that below.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Florida knocks off FSU

The Gators just couldn't muster enough offense (as usual) to topple the Seminoles.  Up next, Florida will have the pleasure of getting annihilated by Alabama in Atlanta.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: I avoid the use of the 13th letter in this post

I did it!  There was not a single 'M' in last week's Three and Out.  So, yeah, you can pretty much thank me for the Buckeyes' victory over Michigan in The Game.

Week 13 record: 3 - 2
2016 record: 30 - 35

Second and 12: Predicting the future!



Top-10 Bold Prediction: Oklahoma State claims Big 12 title with win over Sooners

The Sooners are double-digit favorites against their rivals in Bedlam.  But let's be honest, in the Big 12 it sometimes just comes down to who has the ball last.  Perhaps it will be the Cowboys?  They win, 49 - 42.

B1G Bold Prediction: Penn State beats Wisconsin by double-digits

It would be bad for the Buckeyes if Oklahoma loses.  It would be worse if Penn State wins the Big Ten decisively.  The Nittany Lions have looked like a different team since slaying Ohio State.  PSU by 12.

Buckeye Bold Prediction: OSU drops out of top 4 in final set of rankings

If Alabama, Clemson, and Washington all win, and Penn State wins big, there is a slight chance Ohio State drops out of the playoff picture.  I actually don't think it will happen, but it's hard to predict exactly how the committee will treat this scenario, since it's never happened before.  It's still early in the playoff era, and we've seen how things can get really shaken up after championship week, so it's anyone's guess how this will play out.  We will find out 12 noon on Sunday.

Why-not Bold Prediction: Florida scores a touchdown against Alabama

Why not?  Tide still rolls, 38 - 12.

Not-so-bold Bold Prediction: The team ranked 5th on Sunday is sad

I'm not going to lie - I hope it's Michigan.


Third and 5: What's wrong with the Big 12?



They were shut out of the top 4 in year 1 of the playoff, and it looks like it will happen again this season.  Oklahoma nabbed the #4 spot last year, but likely wouldn't have made it if Stanford avoided an inexplicable loss to Northwestern in week 1, or possibly even if the same Cardinal team hadn't handed Notre Dame a second loss in the final week of the regular season.  It begs the question, why does it seem like the Big 12 is always on the outside looking in, or at best, the last Power 5 conference to get a shot?

A lot of folks point to the lack of a conference championship game, and there is some merit to that.  It's one less game, and by extension, one less chance to impress the committee.  Playing that 13th game against another ranked opponent just hours before the final rankings come out would certainly seem to help a team's cause.  So, good news for Big 12 fans - you'll get a championship game again starting next year!  Except, it's the dumbest thing ever.  Since the league decided not to expand, the Big 12 still consists of only 10 teams, and therefore each team will continue to play every other team each season.  That means that the Big 12 title game will always be a rematch game.  That's not the worst thing in the world - it's certainly possible in other conferences as well.  But, because the Big 12 tries to back-load the schedule - ie, they try to match up the best teams later in the year - the likelihood of a late-season rematch increases.

Take this year for example, which beautifully illustrates how absurd this setup will be.  Oklahoma will take on Oklahoma State in their end-of-season rivalry game this weekend.  If they had the conference title game this year, you know who would play in that game the following week?  Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.  That's regardless of the outcome of their first game.  Not only does it make their first meeting pointless for the sake of the conference championship, but it actually hurts both teams' playoff chances.  Imagine if both teams had only one loss coming into Bedlam.  Win that game and guess what?  You've got to beat your rival again next week.  If the teams split the games, now both have 2 losses and are likely out of the playoff hunt.

So, the way their conference is set up, I think adding a championship game will actually hurt the league's playoff chances.  If they really wanted to go that route they should have invited Houston and a few others to join and then split into divisions.  But that still doesn't answer the question - what's wrong with the Big 12?  Well, simply put, they just haven't been playing very good football.  Defenses down there are simply nonexistent and it really shows when they take on foes in out-of-conference play.  Get better defensive coaches, win your September games, and then prove yourself in the postseason.  Until then, better luck next time.


Fourth down: Nothing left to do now but take a knee.

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